Posted:
#1
Well , by now most are trying to recover from last nights
CMU / WMU game .
I did not have any action on it and typically do not bet these kind
games for a number of reasons I will try to explain .
Let me begin my saying that as we get deeper into the season,
Bookmakers are getting smarter and that is reflective in the lines
they post.
Unless we as bettors are also getting smarter , it is highly likely
that bettors are seeing their profits slowly being eroded right now.
I bring up last nights game as a classic example of this,
Let me cite my reasoning ;
1. In my opinion , as the season progresses, Line value will erode
making the bettor assume higher risk.
2. In my opinion , approximately 20 % of all matchups each week
are uncappable by conventional methods.
3. While many just want the action , I prefer to wager on games
that offer me an edge. Last nights game is a great example of
a matchup where an edge was not present.
Going back to item # 2 for a moment. Most of the matchups I refer
to come from the following conferences.
a. Sun Belt
b. MAC
c. Mountain west
4. CUSA ( lower tier )
They have a few things in common .
Not a lot of depth ( as injuries during the season take their toll )
Poor defensive metrics . They can take a lead , but cannot hold it.
Totals bettors can get clobbered as well.
What does all this mean ?
1 . Look for a defined Schedule edge
2 . Look for the team that has a defined edge in defensive stats.
3. Check injury reports very carefully
Of Most Importance
Pass on a play that does not provide you a significant edge.
For me , by passing on a midweek game , I am more likely to
have more capital to fire on better matchups on Saturday
In last nights game as an example.
CMU had the advantage in Schedule edge.
There was no difference in defensive metrics ( both were poor )
IMO , there was no reason to wager on this game. That's just me ,
but passing on games with no edge for the bettor requires a high
level of discipline. That discipline can lead to profitability.
GLTA this weekend.
CMU / WMU game .
I did not have any action on it and typically do not bet these kind
games for a number of reasons I will try to explain .
Let me begin my saying that as we get deeper into the season,
Bookmakers are getting smarter and that is reflective in the lines
they post.
Unless we as bettors are also getting smarter , it is highly likely
that bettors are seeing their profits slowly being eroded right now.
I bring up last nights game as a classic example of this,
Let me cite my reasoning ;
1. In my opinion , as the season progresses, Line value will erode
making the bettor assume higher risk.
2. In my opinion , approximately 20 % of all matchups each week
are uncappable by conventional methods.
3. While many just want the action , I prefer to wager on games
that offer me an edge. Last nights game is a great example of
a matchup where an edge was not present.
Going back to item # 2 for a moment. Most of the matchups I refer
to come from the following conferences.
a. Sun Belt
b. MAC
c. Mountain west
4. CUSA ( lower tier )
They have a few things in common .
Not a lot of depth ( as injuries during the season take their toll )
Poor defensive metrics . They can take a lead , but cannot hold it.
Totals bettors can get clobbered as well.
What does all this mean ?
1 . Look for a defined Schedule edge
2 . Look for the team that has a defined edge in defensive stats.
3. Check injury reports very carefully
Of Most Importance
Pass on a play that does not provide you a significant edge.
For me , by passing on a midweek game , I am more likely to
have more capital to fire on better matchups on Saturday
In last nights game as an example.
CMU had the advantage in Schedule edge.
There was no difference in defensive metrics ( both were poor )
IMO , there was no reason to wager on this game. That's just me ,
but passing on games with no edge for the bettor requires a high
level of discipline. That discipline can lead to profitability.
GLTA this weekend.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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