Alright, last week was okay. Went 6-5 (+1.1 Units) and hit my two big plays (Arizona and K-State/Alabama teaser) ...
Current YTD: 19-19 (-4.6 Units)
Let's get after it in Week 11! ...
OREGON -17 (3 Units)
Arizona St. has lost 3 straight games and are starting their freshman QB for the first time ... oh yeah, and it's at Autzen Stadium. The Sun Devils offense is non-existent and Oregon continues to put huge yardage and point totals on the board. The Ducks were in a tough spot last week against Stanford, but they bounce back in a big way. The energy of Autzen and the Masoli/James duo overwhelm the Sun Devils.
HAWAII -19 (3 Units)
Hawaii looked dead after getting smoked by Boise. However, they went toe-to-toe with Nevada on the road, then came home and waxed Utah St. (almost 700 yards of offense). QB Moniz has the offense clicking, and the running game is picking up (480 yards last 2 weeks). Meanwhile, New Mexico St. has lost 4 out of 5 with the average loss at 40-7. Hawaii drops 40+ again and cruises here.
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Alright, last week was okay. Went 6-5 (+1.1 Units) and hit my two big plays (Arizona and K-State/Alabama teaser) ...
Current YTD: 19-19 (-4.6 Units)
Let's get after it in Week 11! ...
OREGON -17 (3 Units)
Arizona St. has lost 3 straight games and are starting their freshman QB for the first time ... oh yeah, and it's at Autzen Stadium. The Sun Devils offense is non-existent and Oregon continues to put huge yardage and point totals on the board. The Ducks were in a tough spot last week against Stanford, but they bounce back in a big way. The energy of Autzen and the Masoli/James duo overwhelm the Sun Devils.
HAWAII -19 (3 Units)
Hawaii looked dead after getting smoked by Boise. However, they went toe-to-toe with Nevada on the road, then came home and waxed Utah St. (almost 700 yards of offense). QB Moniz has the offense clicking, and the running game is picking up (480 yards last 2 weeks). Meanwhile, New Mexico St. has lost 4 out of 5 with the average loss at 40-7. Hawaii drops 40+ again and cruises here.
New Mexico is 0-4 SU and ATS at home this year. BYU is 5-0 away from Provo and has covered 4 of those 5 games. Off the bye last week, BYU put their foot down on Wyoming, 52-0. QB Hall was 20-22 for 312 yards and 4 TD, and the D bounced back in a big way. Look for the Cougars to drop 40+ and cruise here.
TEXAS -24 (2 Units)
Texas' defense continues to dominate, and the McCoy/Shipley connection is on point right now. Texas just outgained UCF by almost 400 yards last week. Baylor QB Florence had a big day versus Mizzou, but this Texas defense will not allow him any breathing room. Look for Texas to drop 40+, which is more than enough to cover as their defense shuts down the Bears.
KANSAS STATE PK (2 Units)
I'm continue to roll with the Wildcats, who are now 5-0 at home (4-0 ATS) and are a covering machine. The D stepped up last week, holding Kansas to 10 points. Thomas continues to run all over B12 teams (24 carries for 185 yards), as the Kansas St. rushing attack has outgained opponents by over 200 ypg on the ground at home this year! Missouri has lost 4 of 5, allowing 35 ppg in those defeats. Ride the hot team at home.
TCU -19 (2 Units)
At first, I thought the line was too high. Looking deeper into this game, though, TCU is outscoring MWC opponents 40-8 this year and the D has allowed 2 TD's in the last 4 games. A freshman QB on the road against a fierce Frogs D is a bad recipe for Utah. The difference this year is the efficiency of the offense, led by QB Dalton and his 16-3 ratio. Utah will have trouble scoring, and the balance of the Horned Frogs' attack will be too much.
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BYU -27 (2 Units)
New Mexico is 0-4 SU and ATS at home this year. BYU is 5-0 away from Provo and has covered 4 of those 5 games. Off the bye last week, BYU put their foot down on Wyoming, 52-0. QB Hall was 20-22 for 312 yards and 4 TD, and the D bounced back in a big way. Look for the Cougars to drop 40+ and cruise here.
TEXAS -24 (2 Units)
Texas' defense continues to dominate, and the McCoy/Shipley connection is on point right now. Texas just outgained UCF by almost 400 yards last week. Baylor QB Florence had a big day versus Mizzou, but this Texas defense will not allow him any breathing room. Look for Texas to drop 40+, which is more than enough to cover as their defense shuts down the Bears.
KANSAS STATE PK (2 Units)
I'm continue to roll with the Wildcats, who are now 5-0 at home (4-0 ATS) and are a covering machine. The D stepped up last week, holding Kansas to 10 points. Thomas continues to run all over B12 teams (24 carries for 185 yards), as the Kansas St. rushing attack has outgained opponents by over 200 ypg on the ground at home this year! Missouri has lost 4 of 5, allowing 35 ppg in those defeats. Ride the hot team at home.
TCU -19 (2 Units)
At first, I thought the line was too high. Looking deeper into this game, though, TCU is outscoring MWC opponents 40-8 this year and the D has allowed 2 TD's in the last 4 games. A freshman QB on the road against a fierce Frogs D is a bad recipe for Utah. The difference this year is the efficiency of the offense, led by QB Dalton and his 16-3 ratio. Utah will have trouble scoring, and the balance of the Horned Frogs' attack will be too much.
Stanford is very balanced on offense. Gerhart and Luck have them rolling right now. Meanwhile, USC hasn't won a game by double digits in awhile, barely squeaking by a below-average Arizona St. team. Barkley hasn't looked very good the last couple times out and he won't have his security blanket, Damian Williams available. Stanford keeps it close, if not an outright winner.
UTEP +7 (1 Unit)
Somebody stop me. I've lost twice in a row on UTEP, but I'm just seduced by their offense (500 yards last week, again). In a game with two good offenses, I like getting the points here. SMU struggled at home with Rice last week, and UTEP's balanced attack behind Vittatoe and Buckram should keep it close, if not an outright winner.
MARSHALL ML (1 Unit)
Southern Miss is 0-4 on the road this year, while Marshall is 3-1 at home and has covered 4 straight overall. Both teams are off byes after So. Miss's D got lit up by Houston and Marshall blew a 13 point lead at UCF. The Thundering Herd beat Sothern Miss on the road last year and will ride Darius Marshall, and his 129 ypg on the ground, to victory here.
COLORADO +5.5 (1 Unit)
Colorado may have righted the ship with their come from behind win over Texas A&M last week. QB Hansen was solid against the aggies and RB Stewart ran for over 100 yards. Iowa St. looks a little shell-shocked at the moment. They got crushed by Texas A&M on the road, then rolled by Oklahoma St. at home. With the Cyclones offense in disarray, look for a win by the Buffs here.
OKLAHOMA ST. -4 (1 Unit)
The visitor has one 7 straight in this series as home field advantage seems to carry more weight with these two. Oklahoma St.'s D has been excellent, holding its last 3 opponents under 300 yards (including Texas). Texas Tech should have trouble containing QB Robinson, and the Cowboys' pass D will keep TT's QB (probably Potts) in check.
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STANFORD +10.5 (1 Unit)
Stanford is very balanced on offense. Gerhart and Luck have them rolling right now. Meanwhile, USC hasn't won a game by double digits in awhile, barely squeaking by a below-average Arizona St. team. Barkley hasn't looked very good the last couple times out and he won't have his security blanket, Damian Williams available. Stanford keeps it close, if not an outright winner.
UTEP +7 (1 Unit)
Somebody stop me. I've lost twice in a row on UTEP, but I'm just seduced by their offense (500 yards last week, again). In a game with two good offenses, I like getting the points here. SMU struggled at home with Rice last week, and UTEP's balanced attack behind Vittatoe and Buckram should keep it close, if not an outright winner.
MARSHALL ML (1 Unit)
Southern Miss is 0-4 on the road this year, while Marshall is 3-1 at home and has covered 4 straight overall. Both teams are off byes after So. Miss's D got lit up by Houston and Marshall blew a 13 point lead at UCF. The Thundering Herd beat Sothern Miss on the road last year and will ride Darius Marshall, and his 129 ypg on the ground, to victory here.
COLORADO +5.5 (1 Unit)
Colorado may have righted the ship with their come from behind win over Texas A&M last week. QB Hansen was solid against the aggies and RB Stewart ran for over 100 yards. Iowa St. looks a little shell-shocked at the moment. They got crushed by Texas A&M on the road, then rolled by Oklahoma St. at home. With the Cyclones offense in disarray, look for a win by the Buffs here.
OKLAHOMA ST. -4 (1 Unit)
The visitor has one 7 straight in this series as home field advantage seems to carry more weight with these two. Oklahoma St.'s D has been excellent, holding its last 3 opponents under 300 yards (including Texas). Texas Tech should have trouble containing QB Robinson, and the Cowboys' pass D will keep TT's QB (probably Potts) in check.
I like alot of those picks. Oregon, Hawaii, BYU, and Texas are all playing scrubs. And even though Utah is not a scrub, they are no match for TCU, not this year at least. Those 4 will cover. I'm also high on OkState this week. Tech is a scrappy team, but OSU is the better team overall. They have a more balanced offense even without Dez, and they've been pretty stingy on defense like you said. They made way too many mistakes against Texas and never had a chance in that game, but now they're on a mission to play well. They'll handle Tech. Good stuff.
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I like alot of those picks. Oregon, Hawaii, BYU, and Texas are all playing scrubs. And even though Utah is not a scrub, they are no match for TCU, not this year at least. Those 4 will cover. I'm also high on OkState this week. Tech is a scrappy team, but OSU is the better team overall. They have a more balanced offense even without Dez, and they've been pretty stingy on defense like you said. They made way too many mistakes against Texas and never had a chance in that game, but now they're on a mission to play well. They'll handle Tech. Good stuff.
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