Tough week ... 2-5 (-6.8 Units) I knew I was in trouble when Nebraska couldn't cover when they didn't allow an offensive TD.
YTD: 13-14 (-5.7 Units)
FLORIDA ATLANTIC -1 (2 Units)
SAN DIEGO STATE -16 (2 Units)
UNLV +35 (2 Units)
TEXAS TECH -6.5
NEBRASKA -13
UTEP -7
TEMPLE +7
Time to bounce back big! Starting with ...
ECU +13 (2 Units)
Too many points to be giving a solid ECU team at home. Pinkney is a veteran QB who already has a win against VT under his belt (on the road) and the Pirate crowd will be jacked up for this Thursday night national TV game.
McLovin' ... Sounds like a sexy hamburger!
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Tough week ... 2-5 (-6.8 Units) I knew I was in trouble when Nebraska couldn't cover when they didn't allow an offensive TD.
YTD: 13-14 (-5.7 Units)
FLORIDA ATLANTIC -1 (2 Units)
SAN DIEGO STATE -16 (2 Units)
UNLV +35 (2 Units)
TEXAS TECH -6.5
NEBRASKA -13
UTEP -7
TEMPLE +7
Time to bounce back big! Starting with ...
ECU +13 (2 Units)
Too many points to be giving a solid ECU team at home. Pinkney is a veteran QB who already has a win against VT under his belt (on the road) and the Pirate crowd will be jacked up for this Thursday night national TV game.
BYU has won five straight against Wyoming and covered all five. Look at some of those scores (44-0, 35-10, 55-7). BYU comes off the bye to face a Wyoming team that is struggling mightily on offense the last couple weeks. This is just the tonic the Cougars need to bounce back from the TCU loss in a big way.
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BYU -13 (1 Unit)
BYU has won five straight against Wyoming and covered all five. Look at some of those scores (44-0, 35-10, 55-7). BYU comes off the bye to face a Wyoming team that is struggling mightily on offense the last couple weeks. This is just the tonic the Cougars need to bounce back from the TCU loss in a big way.
Big Play of the Week right here. Arizona is coming off a bye and averaging nearly 500 ypg the last three games. Their explosive offense and above-average defense will overwhelm the tired, injury-depleted Cougars, who will be traveling for the third week in a row and fifth time in six weeks. I expect this game to be like the Oregon-Wash St game ... spread covered by halftime.
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ARIZONA -32.5 (3 Units)
Big Play of the Week right here. Arizona is coming off a bye and averaging nearly 500 ypg the last three games. Their explosive offense and above-average defense will overwhelm the tired, injury-depleted Cougars, who will be traveling for the third week in a row and fifth time in six weeks. I expect this game to be like the Oregon-Wash St game ... spread covered by halftime.
Kafka might not play for the 'Cats, but Persa was alright after being thrown to the wolves. The final score was misleading as Northwestern was tied with Penn St. at 13 in the 4th quarter. Northwestern is 5-0 ATS as an away dog and should keep it within two scores no matter which QB plays.
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NORTHWESTERN +16.5 (1 Unit)
Kafka might not play for the 'Cats, but Persa was alright after being thrown to the wolves. The final score was misleading as Northwestern was tied with Penn St. at 13 in the 4th quarter. Northwestern is 5-0 ATS as an away dog and should keep it within two scores no matter which QB plays.
Rice is terrible and has lost it's last 3 games by a combined 128 points. SMU has played well at home this year (beat ECU, took Navy to OT) and is coming off a two TD win at Tulsa behind super-sub freshman QB Padron (20-30 for 354 and 2-0 ratio). SMU slaps 40+ on the board and covers.
PITT -21 (2 Units)
Syracuse has played one road game this year (ONE!). Now, they head out to face the red-hot Panthers without their only real offensive threat (WR Williams unexpectedly quit the team). Pitt is incredibly balanced on offense (outgaining opponents at home by almost 200 ypg) and should also get to 40 points in this one.
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SMU -17.5 (2 Units)
Rice is terrible and has lost it's last 3 games by a combined 128 points. SMU has played well at home this year (beat ECU, took Navy to OT) and is coming off a two TD win at Tulsa behind super-sub freshman QB Padron (20-30 for 354 and 2-0 ratio). SMU slaps 40+ on the board and covers.
PITT -21 (2 Units)
Syracuse has played one road game this year (ONE!). Now, they head out to face the red-hot Panthers without their only real offensive threat (WR Williams unexpectedly quit the team). Pitt is incredibly balanced on offense (outgaining opponents at home by almost 200 ypg) and should also get to 40 points in this one.
I don't usually play teasers, but I liked the six points on both of these plays. Alabama was in need of a bye and they should come out of it like gangbusters in their big game with LSU. The Tigers will struggle mightily to put up points against the Bama D. Also, Kansas St. should really be favored over the Jayhawks. Two teams heading in opposite directions. KSU has been playing very well the last few weeks and just put up 375 yards and 30 points against a good Sooners D on the road.
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KANSAS ST. +8.5 and ALABAMA -1.5 (3 Units)
I don't usually play teasers, but I liked the six points on both of these plays. Alabama was in need of a bye and they should come out of it like gangbusters in their big game with LSU. The Tigers will struggle mightily to put up points against the Bama D. Also, Kansas St. should really be favored over the Jayhawks. Two teams heading in opposite directions. KSU has been playing very well the last few weeks and just put up 375 yards and 30 points against a good Sooners D on the road.
Does anybody else smell blowout here? The scores from the last four years (55-20, 33-3, 52-17, 41-24), and the fact that the Badgers have outgained Indiana by over 200 ypg in that stretch, suggest that the Badgers just own the line of scrimmage in this matchup. Wisconsin looked pretty fresh off their bye last week, didn't they?
USC -10 (2 Units)
Just a feeling ... The Trojans are pretty banged up, but Arizona St.'s offense is a huge step down from Oregon St., Notre Dame, and Oregon. Carroll said he was "simplifying the defense" which is code for, "I'm going to unleash my superior athletes against an overmatched offensive line playing in front of a below average QB who has no playmakers to throw to ... and we don't have to fear the QB running."
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WISCONSIN -11 (2 Units)
Does anybody else smell blowout here? The scores from the last four years (55-20, 33-3, 52-17, 41-24), and the fact that the Badgers have outgained Indiana by over 200 ypg in that stretch, suggest that the Badgers just own the line of scrimmage in this matchup. Wisconsin looked pretty fresh off their bye last week, didn't they?
USC -10 (2 Units)
Just a feeling ... The Trojans are pretty banged up, but Arizona St.'s offense is a huge step down from Oregon St., Notre Dame, and Oregon. Carroll said he was "simplifying the defense" which is code for, "I'm going to unleash my superior athletes against an overmatched offensive line playing in front of a below average QB who has no playmakers to throw to ... and we don't have to fear the QB running."
Great line value here. I know Rusty Smith is out, but FAU hsa plenty of offensive weapons. UAB gets outgained last week by 200 yards by UTEP, and FAU outgained MTSU by 150 yards. MTSU has a run-pass threat in Dasher and the Owls did a number on him despite his 74 yd td run (7-21 for 90 yards and 13 carries for 30 yards before the 4th quarter). FAU just faced a better version of UAB and should be prepared.
UTEP -7 (2 Units)
UTEP just put up 575 yards of offense last week, but were -3 in turnovers last week. Tulane has lost four straight games by at least 3 TD's. Tulane is 0-4 SU and ATS against D-1A opponents this year. UTEP should get to 40 points in this one with the combination of Vittatoe and Buckram, and the Miners have a legitimate shot at six wins and a bowl (they should beat Tulane and Rice, then they would end the season with Marshall at home).
UCONN +16 (1 Unit)
This could be a really tough spot for UConn coming off their emotional loss to Rutgers after the memorial for Howard. However, I think the Huskies can keep this one within two scores. UConn is 4-0 ATS on the road this year and they have a good balance to their offense. They are very capable of playing keep away like Fresno St. did earlier this year, and should be able to put some points on the board and keep it interesting.
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FLORIDA ATLANTIC +6.5 (1 Unit)
Great line value here. I know Rusty Smith is out, but FAU hsa plenty of offensive weapons. UAB gets outgained last week by 200 yards by UTEP, and FAU outgained MTSU by 150 yards. MTSU has a run-pass threat in Dasher and the Owls did a number on him despite his 74 yd td run (7-21 for 90 yards and 13 carries for 30 yards before the 4th quarter). FAU just faced a better version of UAB and should be prepared.
UTEP -7 (2 Units)
UTEP just put up 575 yards of offense last week, but were -3 in turnovers last week. Tulane has lost four straight games by at least 3 TD's. Tulane is 0-4 SU and ATS against D-1A opponents this year. UTEP should get to 40 points in this one with the combination of Vittatoe and Buckram, and the Miners have a legitimate shot at six wins and a bowl (they should beat Tulane and Rice, then they would end the season with Marshall at home).
UCONN +16 (1 Unit)
This could be a really tough spot for UConn coming off their emotional loss to Rutgers after the memorial for Howard. However, I think the Huskies can keep this one within two scores. UConn is 4-0 ATS on the road this year and they have a good balance to their offense. They are very capable of playing keep away like Fresno St. did earlier this year, and should be able to put some points on the board and keep it interesting.
6-5 for the day (+1.1 Units) ... That was a lot of work to only get 1.1 units, but it beats going down. I did hit both of my big plays, so that was good to see. Hope you all hit it big this weekend, and see you next week!
McLovin' ... Sounds like a sexy hamburger
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Final Card ...
ARIZONA -32.5 (3 Units)
KSU +8.5 and ALABAMA -1.5 teaser (3 Units)
ECU +13 (2 Units)
SMU -17.5 (2 Units)
PITT -21 (2 Units)
WISCONSIN -11 (2 Units)
USC -10 (2 Units)
UTEP -7 (2 Units)
FLORIDA ATLANTIC +6.5 (1 Unit)
UCONN +16 (1 Unit)
BYU -13 (1 Unit)
NORTHWESTERN +16.5 (1 Unit)
6-5 for the day (+1.1 Units) ... That was a lot of work to only get 1.1 units, but it beats going down. I did hit both of my big plays, so that was good to see. Hope you all hit it big this weekend, and see you next week!
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I knew I was in trouble when Nebraska couldn't cover when they didn't allow an offensive TD. 
(Tough Push)
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