Quote Originally Posted by YouLikeThat:
Solid comments Scal, particularly about the offenses Memphis and SMU played the week prior. That will definitely cut down on the prep work throughout the week with the concepts already in place from the week prior.
One comment that you made that I wanted to discuss:
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Week 8/9/10 are the perfect times to strike for POY's because they teams
are fully characterized and their bowl hopes are clearly evident: two
crucial forces to help you structure a bet. I'll be back.
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SMU's remaining schedule:
Memphis
@ ECU
USF
Navy
Needing two more wins for bowl eligibility (a huge factor by your own admission), looking at the schedule, this looks like a must win for that to happen. Throw in the curb stomping at Memphis last year and this looks like a big revenge game. Bowl eligibility + revenge game + a team characterized as over achieving/believing in themselves.
It sounds like you are ignoring factors that you deemed to be important. I'm curious to hear your reasoning. Thanks in advance. BOL.
I will not equivocate here:
I watch Chad Morris' press conferences and the guy simply isn't focused on a bowl. I think it's because he thinks it's unreasonable expectation. And we can only speculate. But I can speculate as someone who is more informed than the general bettor because I'm watching him speak and I'm taking in the content of his speeches.
This team was a 2 win team heading to Houston as a 22.5 pt dog at HOME. They were about to have their season spiral out of control.
They had beaten Liberty and North Texas up until that point. Those are guaranteed wins for halfway decent teams which SMU is but that is all it is. Their two win season up to that point was nothing having been manhandled by Temple and TCU, teams of worth. Memphis, however ugly and turnover laden, beat Temple outright. Temple dropped SIXTY on them last year and 45 this year. This defense has major problems. It's been better the last few weeks but tulane just dropped 31 on it, and could have had more. And although Tulane is improving, it is nowhere near a good team.
Memphis MINIMUM standard is a bowl. They started 5-1. They can lose out if they lose to SMU here. That will be an enormous disappointment and chatter about coaches jobs will arise.
That is why you have, at a minimum the team and coach putting a to. Of stock in this game. You will see that on Saturday.
Not every team that sits at 4-4 is saying Bowl! Of course they want it. But what is realistic? To me, a bowl is unrealistic for SMU and that is why during his press conferences Chad Morris focuses on the general improvement from week to week and last year and not bowls.
So you have to temper the Bowl pursuit with each team and it's just not an applicable angle for SMU here. Take the better team, with the better QB and the better overall offensive weapons to respond off two big losses with its season spirialing out of control to win, in a legitimate pursuit of a bowl, with a reasonable line against inferior competition, home or road.
That line of reasoning will get us there.
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