All Forums | College Football

MEMPHIS @ SMU: It is the one and only College Football PLAY OF THE YEAR!

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 26051
Posts: 373
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2016
Posts: 178
Posted: #76
I like the pick and will be tailing.

I had SMU moneyline last week and was shitting my pants watching them get outplayed by Tulane. Good thing Tulane is fecking terrible and they gave the game away.

"Momentum" is not an argument and anyone who uses "momentum" to cap games is definitely a consistent loser.
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 35351
Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

2016 Record: 25-11 (~70%)

The Pick:

MEMPHIS -3 over SMU

I apologize but I just lost a 2 page write-up. I will drop in here and there before the game starts to make sure you have everything you need factually to pull the trigger on this one, beyond just trusting the capper. 


I just want to note I have two areas of expertise in CFB: Purdue, and the ACC. Rutgers being so terrible this year has taken a big back seat.

The ACC? Yes, we won wit Temple +3.5 over UCF this year as well as UCF -2.5 over UCONN. 2-0 ATS.

Purdue? Even with last week's loss we are 3-1 ATS.

That's 5-1 overall in the areas I specialize in.

This is a great line opening at -4 and dropping to a line of -3 which carries far less liability.

Last year CFB play of the year? SMU -3 over Tulane.

SMU 49 Tulane 21 Final

This game is in the very same mold as that one in terms of line and structure and I feel great about it. I will say it will not be as easy at last year's game but we are in a great spot here.


I'll be back. No I am NOT releasing a POY just because I lost 2 games last week. Those were POOR picks: A team that can fold any second to any line and team giving up HUGE points on the road. This pick is 180 degrees different and that is to our benefit.

Week 8/9/10 are the perfect times to strike for POY's because they teams are fully characterized and their bowl hopes are clearly evident: two crucial forces to help you structure a bet. I'll be back.

We will win this one. I don't post a POY's for shi*s and giggles (and we just won one in the NBA forum with the Thunder -5 over Philly, however fortunate).


It's the AAC, not ACC     




Good luck!       
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 28221
Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:


It's the AAC, not ACC     




Good luck!       

Oh stop the foolishness. I lost two pages of write-up. Let me have typos during my enraged re-type.


Urban
Bet against
Everyone else not on this page

We are going to win. I'm not here for attention or to post losers. This is about winning money, all of us, and nothing else. 

I don't need attention from avatars and screen names. I have plenty of people in my life to fill that void. On here, I am here to post winners with reasoning. Nothing else. 

If SMU wants to go toe to toe with Memphis airing it out they will pay the price. Hicks cannot go punch for punch here. If SMU's run game is not excellent, they will not get over this number as Memphis pulls away.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2015
Posts: 647
Posted: #79
Im with you, your record and write ups are proof your legit. Besides I already have 25 parlays with iowa st...so im thinking ill be up no matter what this weekend. gl mang!
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 35351
Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Oh stop the foolishness. I lost two pages of write-up. Let me have typos during my enraged re-type.


Urban
Bet against
Everyone else not on this page

We are going to win. I'm not here for attention or to post losers. This is about winning money, all of us, and nothing else. 

I don't need attention from avatars and screen names. I have plenty of people in my life to fill that void. On here, I am here to post winners with reasoning. Nothing else. 

If SMU wants to go toe to toe with Memphis airing it out they will pay the price. Hicks cannot go punch for punch here. If SMU's run game is not excellent, they will not get over this number as Memphis pulls away.

I don't whats worse, losing your own write-up or when you hit SUBMIT on Covers and their system loses it.   The latter happens way too often.  Sometimes with a longer one I'll copy it partway through just in case.    
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2013
Posts: 1137
Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

not really but you get the point, nothing is as sure as taxes 

I'll just have it as a Large money play, I don't do the POY stuff like I once did, not sure why as I hit those everytime I posted one, I just don't like the thought of one game being the biggest for me 

 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2016
Posts: 180
Posted: #82
Solid comments Scal, particularly about the offenses Memphis and SMU played the week prior.  That will definitely cut down on the prep work throughout the week with the concepts already in place from the week prior.

One comment that you made that I wanted to discuss:
-----
Week 8/9/10 are the perfect times to strike for POY's because they teams are fully characterized and their bowl hopes are clearly evident: two crucial forces to help you structure a bet. I'll be back.
-------

SMU's remaining schedule:

Memphis
@ ECU
USF
Navy

Needing two more wins for bowl eligibility (a huge factor by your own admission), looking at the schedule, this looks like a must win for that to happen.  Throw in the curb stomping at Memphis last year and this looks like a big revenge game.  Bowl eligibility + revenge game + a team characterized as over achieving/believing in themselves.

It sounds like you are ignoring factors that you deemed to be important.  I'm curious to hear your reasoning.  Thanks in advance.  BOL.


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2013
Posts: 1137
Posted: #83
 There are actually 4 GREAT games this week but I posted one. What are the other 3 games scal? I'm curious so i can check them out.. Thanks!  GOOOOOOOO MEMPHIS!!! 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2006
Posts: 6591
Posted: #84
My man, hitting at 66% ATS (playing 5 dogs a week) and coming off a 5-0 week, is on SMU. So I'm officially against you, White Mamba. 

Last time this happened was the UConn-UCF game two weeks ago and luck was on your side that day when UConn couldn't make a big play down the stretch despite being in UCF's red zone two times in the final five minutes of the game. 

Those things usually even out. So I have a feeling you won't be so lucky this time.  

Take the Mustangs, boys! They should win this one outright! 

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2006
Posts: 6591
Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by Manny_Fizzle:

 There are actually 4 GREAT games this week but I posted one. What are the other 3 games scal? I'm curious so i can check them out.. Thanks!  

Don't bother. He won't tell you. He will just insert them as "winners" after the fact to inflate his record some more. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2007
Posts: 2103
Posted: #86
Agreed with you on this play, 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2012
Posts: 6618
Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Last week was easy money with SMU +2.5 and Tulane on SMU's 21 with 4 minutes left up 31-28? Fritz gifted SMU backers the game.

The game before was SMU's entire season with Houston flailing. I can't take away from a win where you are 21.5 pt dogs but a public win like that creates this line in Memphis' backers favor.

And why talk about a "few big passing plays" for SMU when Memphis does the same thing even better against and equally poor secondary with more weapons and experience?

And SMU's coach, having been there a year and a half is better than Memphis'?

SMU isn't the one with bowl hopes. Their 4 wins are DOUBLE their win total last year and their coach is not in danger of losing his job. They just hired him last year. SMU hasn't spoken about bowl hopes all year. They've spoke about surviving and building on last year.

Memphis has the legitimate bowl hopes siting at 5-3 and from game 1, have been trying to prove they can win without Paxton Lynch. And they've done that. And now they get one more game against inferior competition to notch that last win. In a GOOD season for them especially when they lost a star QB.

Don't like your counterpoints. They don't add up.




Yes, SMU has the superior coach. Chad Morris knows exactly what he's doing and has his kids playing very motivated and loose right now. Of course they want to play in a bowl game. It's silly to think they don't have such a goal.

Also, SMU has the better defense. And their secondary is their strength which is important here. SMU's QB Hicks definitely started out rough when he first replaced Davis, but has shown improvement and plays with confidence. Memphis' Ferguson is certainly a gamer and tough kid, but can be erratic at times too.

For me, the home dog with the more trustworthy defense and improved running game is the play if people must wager on this game. BOL whatever you decide.

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 1855
Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by jdr016:


Don't bother. He won't tell you. He will just insert them as "winners" after the fact to inflate his record some more. 

I thought he posts all his plays and his record includes all posted plays that could be tracked down in older posts?
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 28221
Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by swanbomb:


I thought he posts all his plays and his record includes all posted plays that could be tracked down in older posts?

Swan are you serious? 

What he's doing is pulling the "When did you stop beating your wife?" line and you are now falling for it by answering him.

I have 10,000/15,000 views in my threads last week. Do you really think you couldn't find ONE person who wouldn't jump down my throat if I inflated my record? Do you have any idea how many trolls lurk in my threads waiting for a screw up?

I've told this idiot to find a single game where I inflated my record. He can't. It doesn't exist. And he won't even pursue such an allegation. He just throws innuendo to the wind and waits for it to take hold. On top of that, I've had several +ML's where you actually make MORE than a unit. That is not reflected in the record above. And I don't even care to do that. It's about making money.

Unfortunately no one bites at his shi* and he looks even worse. Don't bite for it. 

And no one gives a sh* anyway. They care about the next pick. This one. And this has been capped up and down, sideways and into next Tuesday. And it will hit.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2013
Posts: 6802
Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by swanbomb:


I thought he posts all his plays and his record includes all posted plays that could be tracked down in older posts?


Yeah, all his plays are posted.

jdr016 is an ineffably depraved polisson and a perverted feeble-minded conglomerate of intellectual constipation. He doesn't post his plays, yet trolls in scals thread. Look at scals record vs his. Oh wait, he doesnt have one. RECORDS SPEAK, His unfortunately, is silenced. 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 28221
Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by jdr016:

My man, hitting at 66% ATS (playing 5 dogs a week) and coming off a 5-0 week, is on SMU. So I'm officially against you, White Mamba. 

Last time this happened was the UConn-UCF game two weeks ago and luck was on your side that day when UConn couldn't make a big play down the stretch despite being in UCF's red zone two times in the final five minutes of the game. 

Those things usually even out. So I have a feeling you won't be so lucky this time.  

Take the Mustangs, boys! They should win this one outright! 


I'd LOVE for you to find one other covers member who tailed me on UCF over UCONN, and thought I 'lucked' into that win. ONE. Find one person other than my Jeffrey Dahmer stalker and JFelty who will say every pick I ever played is lucky.

Now, with trolls, if your team does not lead for a full 48 minutes and you win by <21pts, you are lucky.

And thank goodness your 'secret capper' who went out of his way to point out that Uconn had a receiver, who had all of two catches on the year and wasn't playing for two weeks due to a suspension (what relevant info), is on SMU. Makes me feel 10x better about this pick.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 28221
Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by Jailbait7127:



Yeah, all his plays are posted.

jdr016 is an ineffably depraved polisson and a perverted feeble-minded conglomerate of intellectual constipation. He doesn't post his plays, yet trolls in scals thread. Look at scals record vs his. Oh wait, he doesnt have one. RECORDS SPEAK, His unfortunately, is silenced. 

Beautiful verbiage Jail.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 1855
Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Beautiful verbiage Jail.

Haha yea guys I was just being sarcastic. I know a troll when I see one. 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 28221
Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:


I don't whats worse, losing your own write-up or when you hit SUBMIT on Covers and their system loses it.   The latter happens way too often.  Sometimes with a longer one I'll copy it partway through just in case.    

Now with covers freezing up all the time it happens more often than not, I'm also copying and pasting into word just to preserve the sucker.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 28221
Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by YouLikeThat:

Solid comments Scal, particularly about the offenses Memphis and SMU played the week prior.  That will definitely cut down on the prep work throughout the week with the concepts already in place from the week prior.

One comment that you made that I wanted to discuss:
-----
Week 8/9/10 are the perfect times to strike for POY's because they teams are fully characterized and their bowl hopes are clearly evident: two crucial forces to help you structure a bet. I'll be back.
-------

SMU's remaining schedule:

Memphis
@ ECU
USF
Navy

Needing two more wins for bowl eligibility (a huge factor by your own admission), looking at the schedule, this looks like a must win for that to happen.  Throw in the curb stomping at Memphis last year and this looks like a big revenge game.  Bowl eligibility + revenge game + a team characterized as over achieving/believing in themselves.

It sounds like you are ignoring factors that you deemed to be important.  I'm curious to hear your reasoning.  Thanks in advance.  BOL.



I will not equivocate here:

I watch Chad Morris' press conferences and the guy simply isn't focused on a bowl. I think it's because he thinks it's unreasonable expectation. And we can only speculate. But I can speculate as someone who is more informed than the general bettor because I'm watching him speak and I'm taking in the content of his speeches.

This team was a 2 win team heading to Houston as a 22.5 pt dog at HOME. They were about to have their season spiral out of control. 

They had beaten Liberty and North Texas up until that point. Those are guaranteed wins for halfway decent teams which SMU is but that is all it is. Their two win season up to that point was nothing having been manhandled by Temple and TCU, teams of worth. Memphis, however ugly and turnover laden, beat Temple outright. Temple dropped SIXTY on them last year and 45 this year. This defense has major problems. It's been better the last few weeks but tulane just dropped 31 on it, and could have had more. And although Tulane is improving, it is nowhere near a good team.

Memphis MINIMUM standard is a bowl. They started 5-1. They can lose out if they lose to SMU here. That will be an enormous disappointment and chatter about coaches jobs will arise.

That is why you have, at a minimum the team and coach putting a to. Of stock in this game. You will see that on Saturday.

Not every team that sits at 4-4 is saying Bowl! Of course they want it. But what is realistic? To me, a bowl is unrealistic for SMU and that is why during his press conferences Chad Morris focuses on the general improvement from week to week and last year and not bowls. 

So you have to temper the Bowl pursuit with each team and it's just not an applicable angle for SMU here. Take the better team, with the better QB and the better overall offensive weapons to respond off two big losses with its season spirialing out of control to win, in a legitimate pursuit of a bowl, with a reasonable line against inferior competition, home or road.

That line of reasoning will get us there.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2015
Posts: 1829
Posted: #96
This "superior" coaching angle,is amateur at best.  Mike Norvell was a very sought after coach who's doing a great job after inheriting a team that lost a Qb to the first round of the NFL draft.  Justin Fuentes didn't leave the cupboard bear, this a capable team with a fine coach who will probably be stepping up to something bigger in the near future.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 28221
Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by motowner:



Yes, SMU has the superior coach. Chad Morris knows exactly what he's doing and has his kids playing very motivated and loose right now. Of course they want to play in a bowl game. It's silly to think they don't have such a goal.

Also, SMU has the better defense. And their secondary is their strength which is important here. SMU's QB Hicks definitely started out rough when he first replaced Davis, but has shown improvement and plays with confidence. Memphis' Ferguson is certainly a gamer and tough kid, but can be erratic at times too.

For me, the home dog with the more trustworthy defense and improved running game is the play if people must wager on this game. BOL whatever you decide.


Hicks will not get you there. Too youn. Too inexperienced. A gunner but he'll make mistakes. You even admit as much. If SMU's run game doesn't back up Hicks here to open the passing game, Memphis will win and cover. And that is what I expect to happen. And if SMU want to get in a shootout it will be like Diaz-McGregor and the superior team memphis will win and cover (and push at the absolute worst).

WANTING a bowl is not the same as being a legitimate 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 28221
Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by Win4Ever:

This "superior" coaching angle,is amateur at best.  Mike Norvell was a very sought after coach who's doing a great job after inheriting a team that lost a Qb to the first round of the NFL draft.  Justin Fuentes didn't leave the cupboard bear, this a capable team with a fine coach who will probably be stepping up to something bigger in the near future.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 28221
Posted: #99
And I want to add something about the alleged sharps that have pounded this line down from 6.5.

The good part, even if you believe that, is that they've stopped pounding it.

At 3, therefore, if you believe this to be sharp related, gives us the best value because the sharps have now backed off at this 3 number. They are backing off for a reason. They don't like SMU at 3.

Worse, if you are now on SMU, you are getting by far the worst number.

I don't believe the above but there was chatter about it here.
 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 379
Posted: #100
BOL ! :) Read all 7 pages, those trolls have nothing to bash you . Keep the good work :)
All Forums | College Football
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gambling
Betting Sites
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
21+
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Help Privacy Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
Covers is verified safe by:
Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo PCI DSS logo Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.