My Season Win numbers

First number after the team is the Power Rating.  Next number is predicted number of season wins.  The first of the three percentages is the chance the team wins fewer than the predicted season win.  The second is winning exactly that number.  And the third is more then the predicted number.  I have Excel programmed to calculate these numbers based on the Power Ratings.

To keep things easy, I gave every team the same number of points for home field edge, so I am underrating teams like Oregon and Boise who have huge home field edges. 

Numbers to follow...

Air Force    63    9, 49%, 31%, 20%
Akron    33.1    3, 27%, 28%, 45%
Alabama    73.8    10, 45%, 29%, 26%
Arizona    62.4    6, 29%, 25%, 46%
Arizona State    64.1    8, 43%, 25%, 32%
Arkansas    66.8    8, 48%, 25%, 26%
Arkansas State    37.2    5, 31%, 26%, 43%
Army    44.3    4, 26%, 27%, 47%
Auburn    63.8    6, 29%, 26%, 44%
Ball State    33.4    3, 44%, 27%, 29%
Baylor    55.9    5, 25%, 25%, 50%
Boise State    69.4    9, 35%, 27%, 38%
Boston College    62.2    7, 46%, 25%, 30%
Bowling Green    40.3    4, 28%, 26%, 46%
Buffalo    36.1    4, 27%, 27%, 45%
BYU    62.5    8, 35%, 27%, 38%
California    60    6, 39%, 26%, 36%
Central Florida    54.4    7, 32%, 26%, 43%
Central Michigan    43.2    5, 27%, 26%, 47%
Cincinnati    54.7    6, 40%, 26%, 34%
Clemson    62.5    7, 49%, 24%, 27%
Colorado    54.6    4, 32%, 24%, 44%
Colorado State    50    6, 30%, 25%, 45%
Connecticut    52.5    6, 41%, 25%, 34%
Duke    53    5, 42%, 26%, 33%
East Carolina    46.7    4, 26%, 25%, 49%
Eastern Michigan    33.7    5, 42%, 29%, 29%
Florida    66.9    8, 47%, 26%, 28%
Florida Atlantic    32.5    3, 37%, 28%, 35%
Florida International    46.8    7, 31%, 24%, 44%
Florida State    66.9    8, 32%, 25%, 43%
Fresno State    52.8    7, 47%, 24%, 29%
Georgia    65.8    8, 41%, 25%, 34%
Georgia Tech    57.2    6, 45%, 25%, 31%
Hawaii    54.5    8, 29%, 24%, 47%
Houston    54.5    8, 32%, 26%, 42%
Idaho    42.4    5, 48%, 25%, 27%
Illinois    61.7    8, 38%, 26%, 36%
Indiana    50.5    5, 35%, 27%, 37%
Iowa    60.4    7, 32%, 25%, 44%
Iowa State    52.3    4, 31%, 26%, 43%
Kansas    51    4, 26%, 26%, 48%
Kansas State    56.4    5, 24%, 25%, 51%
Kent State    46.9    7, 45%, 27%, 28%
Kentucky    58.4    6, 36%, 26%, 38%
Louisiana Lafayette    33.3    4, 38%, 28%, 35%
Louisiana Monroe    40.2    6, 50%, 25%, 25%
Louisiana Tech    47.4    5, 31%, 26%, 43%
Louisville    55.8    6, 37%, 25%, 37%
LSU    68.2    7, 36%, 25%, 38%
Marshall    48.7    5, 35%, 25%, 39%
Maryland    64.4    8, 43%, 25%, 32%
Memphis    39.2    4, 30%, 26%, 45%
Miami    65.9    7, 33%, 25%, 42%
Miami (Ohio)    47.2    6, 40%, 25%, 35%
Michigan    60.3    7, 43%, 25%, 32%
Michigan State    65.3    8, 37%, 27%, 35%
Middle Tennessee    40.5    6, 48%, 24%, 27%
Minnesota    50.3    4, 23%, 26%, 51%
Mississippi State    65.1    7, 31%, 25%, 44%
Missouri    65.2    8, 46%, 26%, 28%
Navy    55.3    7, 46%, 26%, 29%
Nebraska    66.1    8, 31%, 25%, 44%
Nevada    48.9    6, 37%, 25%, 37%
New Mexico    40    3, 22%, 28%, 50%
New Mexico State    38.9    4, 44%, 24%, 32%
North Carolina    68.4    9, 39%, 27%, 34%
North Carolina State    61.3    7, 30%, 26%, 44%
North Texas    36.2    4, 36%, 26%, 38%
Northern Illinois    51.7    8, 33%, 27%, 40%
Northwestern    60.8    7, 35%, 26%, 40%
Notre Dame    66.1    7, 30%, 23%, 46%
Ohio    47.3    8, 46%, 25%, 29%
Ohio State    67.3    8, 30%, 25%, 45%
Oklahoma    72.5    9, 35%, 27%, 38%
Oklahoma State    67.1    8, 34%, 26%, 41%
Ole Miss    64.6    7, 32%, 24%, 44%
Oregon    68.3    8, 35%, 26%, 39%
Oregon State    59.5    5, 26%, 24%, 50%
Penn State    61.4    7, 34%, 26%, 39%
Pittsburgh    64.3    9, 49%, 26%, 25%
Purdue    54.3    6, 41%, 26%, 33%
Rice    34.8    2, 25%, 29%, 46%

TBC

Rutgers    55.7    6, 27%, 24%, 48%
San Diego State    58.2    8, 50%, 25%, 25%
San Jose State    49.1    5, 32%, 25%, 43%
SMU    54.4    7, 40%, 27%, 33%
South Carolina    66.1    9, 45%, 26%, 29%
South Florida    54.5    7, 43%, 26%, 31%
Southern Miss    57.9    9, 43%, 27%, 30%
Stanford    72.9    9, 35%, 26%, 38%
Syracuse    59.8    8, 48%, 25%, 27%
TCU    65.8    8, 27%, 28%, 45%
Temple    48.5    7, 32%, 25%, 43%
Tennessee    61.3    7, 36%, 26%, 37%
Texas    65.1    8, 50%, 24%, 26%
Texas A&M    67.3    8, 34%, 25%, 41%
Texas Tech    57.3    6, 25%, 25%, 49%
Toledo    49.3    7, 49%, 25%, 27%
Troy    49.2    7, 31%, 26%, 42%
Tulane    44.8    6, 42%, 25%, 33%
Tulsa    55.5    7, 35%, 26%, 39%
UAB    45    4, 30%, 25%, 45%
UCLA    58.6    6, 31%, 24%, 45%
UNLV    44.4    4, 42%, 26%, 32%
USC    67.3    8, 41%, 25%, 34%
Utah    59.6    6, 39%, 25%, 36%
Utah State    42.5    5, 47%, 24%, 29%
UTEP    41.3    4, 26%, 26%, 48%
Vanderbilt    57.4    5, 30%, 26%, 44%
Virginia    57.8    6, 34%, 25%, 41%
Virginia Tech    64.2    9, 50%, 25%, 25%
Wake Forest    55.6    5, 45%, 25%, 30%
Washington    61.8    7, 30%, 25%, 45%
Washington State    51.8    4, 30%, 27%, 43%
West Virginia    62.3    8, 40%, 26%, 34%
Western Kentucky    36.5    5, 48%, 25%, 28%
Western Michigan    49.5    7, 38%, 27%, 35%
Wisconsin    65.6    8, 31%, 26%, 43%
Wyoming    47.7    6, 40%, 28%, 31%

Rutgers    55.7    6, 27%, 24%, 48%
San Diego State    58.2    8, 50%, 25%, 25%
San Jose State    49.1    5, 32%, 25%, 43%
SMU    54.4    7, 40%, 27%, 33%
South Carolina    66.1    9, 45%, 26%, 29%
South Florida    54.5    7, 43%, 26%, 31%
Southern Miss    57.9    9, 43%, 27%, 30%
Stanford    72.9    9, 35%, 26%, 38%
Syracuse    59.8    8, 48%, 25%, 27%
TCU    65.8    8, 27%, 28%, 45%
Temple    48.5    7, 32%, 25%, 43%
Tennessee    61.3    7, 36%, 26%, 37%
Texas    65.1    8, 50%, 24%, 26%
Texas A&M    67.3    8, 34%, 25%, 41%
Texas Tech    57.3    6, 25%, 25%, 49%
Toledo    49.3    7, 49%, 25%, 27%
Troy    49.2    7, 31%, 26%, 42%
Tulane    44.8    6, 42%, 25%, 33%
Tulsa    55.5    7, 35%, 26%, 39%
UAB    45    4, 30%, 25%, 45%
UCLA    58.6    6, 31%, 24%, 45%
UNLV    44.4    4, 42%, 26%, 32%
USC    67.3    8, 41%, 25%, 34%
Utah    59.6    6, 39%, 25%, 36%
Utah State    42.5    5, 47%, 24%, 29%
UTEP    41.3    4, 26%, 26%, 48%
Vanderbilt    57.4    5, 30%, 26%, 44%
Virginia    57.8    6, 34%, 25%, 41%
Virginia Tech    64.2    9, 50%, 25%, 25%
Wake Forest    55.6    5, 45%, 25%, 30%
Washington    61.8    7, 30%, 25%, 45%
Washington State    51.8    4, 30%, 27%, 43%
West Virginia    62.3    8, 40%, 26%, 34%
Western Kentucky    36.5    5, 48%, 25%, 28%
Western Michigan    49.5    7, 38%, 27%, 35%
Wisconsin    65.6    8, 31%, 26%, 43%
Wyoming    47.7    6, 40%, 28%, 31%

I can your numbers if you put your Power Rating after the team name below.  I need the team name to be identical to how I spell it, so just reply to this post and put in your PRs

Air Force
Akron
Alabama
Arizona
Arizona State
Arkansas
Arkansas State
Army
Auburn
Ball State
Baylor
Boise State
Boston College
Bowling Green
Buffalo
BYU
California
Central Florida
Central Michigan
Cincinnati
Clemson
Colorado
Colorado State
Connecticut
Duke
East Carolina
Eastern Michigan
Florida
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Florida State
Fresno State
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Hawaii
Houston
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Kent State
Kentucky
Louisiana Lafayette
Louisiana Monroe
Louisiana Tech
Louisville
LSU
Marshall
Maryland
Memphis
Miami
Miami (Ohio)
Michigan
Michigan State
Middle Tennessee
Minnesota
Mississippi State
Missouri
Navy
Nebraska
Nevada
New Mexico
New Mexico State
North Carolina
North Carolina State
North Texas
Northern Illinois
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Ohio
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Ole Miss
Oregon
Oregon State
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Purdue
Rice
Rutgers
San Diego State
San Jose State
SMU
South Carolina
South Florida
Southern Miss
Stanford
Syracuse
TCU
Temple
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
UCLA
UNLV
USC
Utah
Utah State
UTEP
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington
Washington State
West Virginia
Western Kentucky
Western Michigan
Wisconsin
Wyoming

Air Force  79
Akron   41
Alabama  93
Arizona    73
Arizona State  83
Arkansas     87.5
Arkansas State  54
Army     61
Auburn    79
Ball State   45
Baylor   70.5
Boise State     92
Boston College   74
Bowling Green   46.5
Buffalo    50
BYU    80
California    73
Central Florida   68
Central Michigan  57
Cincinnati    70
Clemson     76.5
Colorado     67
Colorado State   63.5
Connecticut    67
Duke   60
East Carolina   63
Eastern Michigan  42.5
Florida     82
Florida Atlantic   45
Florida International   61.5
Florida State   84.5
Fresno State  70
Georgia    81
Georgia Tech   74.5
Hawaii    68
Houston   69.5
Idaho     61.5
Illinois    81
Indiana   57.5
Iowa     79.5
Iowa State    59.5
Kansas    62.5
Kansas State   77
Kent State   54
Kentucky  76
Louisiana Lafayette  42
Louisiana Monroe  61
Louisiana Tech   64.5
Louisville   70
LSU    85.5
Marshall   58.5
Maryland   76.5
Memphis   44
Miami   78
Miami (Ohio)   53
Michigan     76.5
Michigan State  81
Middle Tennessee  46.5
Minnesota    62.5
Mississippi State  84
Missouri    80.5
Navy    70.5
Nebraska    88
Nevada   70
New Mexico   55.5
New Mexico State  52
North Carolina   76.5
North Carolina State  79.5
North Texas   48
Northern Illinois   67
Northwestern   75
Notre Dame   80
Ohio   64
Ohio State   83
Oklahoma    92
Oklahoma State  87.5
Ole Miss   76.5
Oregon    91
Oregon State   73.5   
Penn State   82
Pittsburgh   81
Purdue   75.5
Rice    54
Rutgers   71
San Diego State  68.5  
San Jose State   60
SMU   71
South Carolina   89.5
South Florida  75.5
Southern Miss   73.5
Stanford     86.5
Syracuse    70.5
TCU      84
Temple   53.5
Tennessee  83
Texas    81.5
Texas A&M   84
Texas Tech  75.5
Toledo   64.5
Troy    68.5
Tulane    49
Tulsa     68.5
UAB     58.5
UCLA    77
UNLV    45
USC     83.5
Utah      76
Utah State  48 
UTEP    44.5
Vanderbilt    68
Virginia   76
Virginia Tech   88
Wake Forest  66.5
Washington  74.5
Washington State  61.5
West Virginia   79
Western Kentucky  48.5
Western Michigan   59
Wisconsin   83.5
Wyoming     58

Thanks for Doing these #'s

 

Air Force  79
Akron   41
Alabama  93
Arizona    73
Arizona State  83
Arkansas     88.5
Arkansas State  55
Army     61
Auburn    79.5
Ball State   46
Baylor   71
Boise State     92
Boston College   74
Bowling Green   47.5
Buffalo    50
BYU    80.5
California    72.5
Central Florida   68
Central Michigan  58
Cincinnati    71
Clemson     75
Colorado     66
Colorado State   63
Connecticut    67.5
Duke   60
East Carolina   63
Eastern Michigan  42.5
Florida     82
Florida Atlantic   44.5
Florida International   61.5
Florida State   85
Fresno State  70
Georgia    81
Georgia Tech   74.5
Hawaii    68
Houston   69.5
Idaho     61.5
Illinois    81
Indiana   56
Iowa     79.5
Iowa State    61
Kansas    62.5
Kansas State   77
Kent State   55.5
Kentucky  76
Louisiana Lafayette  42
Louisiana Monroe  61
Louisiana Tech   64.5
Louisville   70
LSU    85.5
Marshall   58.5
Maryland   77
Memphis   44
Miami   78.5
Miami (Ohio)   53
Michigan     77.5
Michigan State  81
Middle Tennessee  46.5
Minnesota    62.5
Mississippi State  84
Missouri    81
Navy    70.5
Nebraska    87
Nevada   70
New Mexico   55.5
New Mexico State  52
North Carolina   76.5
North Carolina State  79.5
North Texas   48
Northern Illinois   67
Northwestern   75
Notre Dame   80
Ohio   64
Ohio State   83
Oklahoma    91.5
Oklahoma State  87.5
Ole Miss   75.5
Oregon    92
Oregon State   73.5   
Penn State   81
Pittsburgh   81
Purdue   75.5
Rice    54
Rutgers   71.5
San Diego State  70  
San Jose State   62
SMU   71
South Carolina   89.5
South Florida  75.5
Southern Miss   73.5
Stanford     86.5
Syracuse    70.5
TCU      85
Temple   53.5
Tennessee  83
Texas    81.5
Texas A&M   84
Texas Tech  75
Toledo   64.5
Troy    68.5
Tulane    49
Tulsa     68.5
UAB     58.5
UCLA    77
UNLV    45
USC     85
Utah      76
Utah State  48 
UTEP    44.5
Vanderbilt    68
Virginia   75
Virginia Tech   88.5
Wake Forest  66.5
Washington  74.5
Washington State  64
West Virginia   79
Western Kentucky  48.5
Western Michigan  60
Wisconsin   83.5
Wyoming     58

Thorpe hoping you have some time to Run my above numbers

 

 

thanks for your time

Team    Season Wins    6+ WC    11+ W    6+ W
Air Force    8, 47%, 29%, 24%    10%    2%    80%
Akron    3, 38%, 30%, 32%    0%    0%    1%
Alabama    10, 40%, 30%, 30%    69%    30%    99%
Arizona    5, 27%, 27%, 47%    6%    0%    22%
Arizona State    8, 35%, 26%, 39%    64%    4%    85%
Arkansas    9, 49%, 27%, 24%    39%    7%    92%
Arkansas State    6, 28%, 28%, 45%    20%    0%    45%
Army    6, 47%, 26%, 27%        0%    27%
Auburn    6, 23%, 27%, 50%    3%    0%    50%
Ball State    3, 43%, 27%, 30%    1%    0%    1%
Baylor    5, 29%, 28%, 43%    4%    0%    19%
Boise State    11, 47%, 35%, 18%    85%    53%    100%
Boston College    6, 41%, 26%, 33%    5%    0%    33%
Bowling Green    3, 20%, 27%, 53%    1%    0%    3%
Buffalo    5, 38%, 28%, 34%    8%    0%    13%
BYU    9, 43%, 29%, 28%        8%    95%
California    5, 25%, 25%, 50%    5%    0%    25%
Central Florida    7, 32%, 27%, 41%    33%    1%    68%
Central Michigan    6, 44%, 27%, 29%    18%    0%    29%
Cincinnati    6, 29%, 26%, 45%    2%    0%    45%
Clemson    6, 39%, 26%, 35%    7%    0%    35%
Colorado    4, 44%, 25%, 31%    1%    0%    4%
Colorado State    7, 41%, 27%, 32%    1%    0%    59%
Connecticut    6, 31%, 26%, 43%    1%    0%    43%
Duke    4, 44%, 28%, 28%    0%    0%    3%
East Carolina    5, 28%, 26%, 46%    25%    0%    22%
Eastern Michigan    4, 28%, 32%, 40%    0%    0%    3%
Florida    7, 34%, 27%, 39%    9%    1%    66%
Florida Atlantic    3, 40%, 29%, 31%    1%    0%    0%
Florida International    8, 50%, 25%, 26%    47%    2%    75%
Florida State    9, 39%, 27%, 33%    69%    12%    94%
Fresno State    7, 34%, 25%, 41%    26%    1%    66%
Georgia    7, 32%, 25%, 43%    21%    1%    68%
Georgia Tech    7, 45%, 25%, 29%    8%    0%    55%
Hawaii    8, 34%, 26%, 40%    15%    5%    85%
Houston    9, 51%, 26%, 23%    59%    7%    91%
Idaho    5, 24%, 25%, 51%    4%    0%    25%
Illinois    8, 27%, 25%, 48%    38%    7%    90%
Indiana    3, 16%, 31%, 54%    0%    0%    1%
Iowa    8, 40%, 27%, 34%    26%    3%    82%
Iowa State    3, 32%, 30%, 38%    0%    0%    1%
Kansas    3, 20%, 27%, 53%    0%    0%    2%
Kansas State    7, 47%, 26%, 27%    20%    0%    53%
Kent State    6, 27%, 28%, 46%    19%    0%    46%
Kentucky    7, 49%, 25%, 25%    3%    0%    51%
Louisiana Lafayette    3, 28%, 29%, 43%    1%    0%    1%
Louisiana Monroe    7, 44%, 28%, 28%    51%    0%    56%
Louisiana Tech    6, 42%, 26%, 32%    7%    0%    32%
Louisville    6, 43%, 26%, 32%    1%    0%    32%
LSU    7, 27%, 25%, 48%    24%    1%    73%
Marshall    4, 34%, 27%, 39%    5%    0%    6%
Maryland    7, 36%, 25%, 38%    18%    1%    64%
Memphis    3, 38%, 30%, 32%    0%    0%    1%
Miami    7, 39%, 25%, 36%    18%    1%    61%
Miami (Ohio)    4, 24%, 25%, 51%    8%    0%    10%
Michigan    7, 42%, 26%, 32%    9%    1%    58%
Michigan State    8, 38%, 28%, 34%    24%    3%    85%
Middle Tennessee    4, 43%, 27%, 30%    2%    0%    3%
Minnesota    4, 33%, 30%, 37%    0%    0%    4%

Mississippi State    8, 42%, 27%, 31%    14%    2%    81%
Missouri    7, 27%, 26%, 48%    39%    1%    73%
Navy    7, 45%, 26%, 29%        0%    55%
Nebraska    9, 33%, 27%, 40%    54%    16%    96%
Nevada    7, 30%, 27%, 43%    35%    1%    70%
New Mexico    4, 39%, 30%, 31%    0%    0%    2%
New Mexico State    4, 45%, 26%, 29%    0%    0%    3%
North Carolina    7, 28%, 25%, 48%    17%    1%    72%
North Carolina State    9, 52%, 26%, 23%    32%    6%    90%
North Texas    4, 38%, 27%, 35%    4%    0%    4%
Northern Illinois    9, 49%, 27%, 24%    69%    6%    92%
Northwestern    7, 43%, 26%, 31%    8%    0%    57%
Notre Dame    7, 42%, 24%, 34%        1%    58%
Ohio    9, 40%, 28%, 32%    70%    11%    94%
Ohio State    8, 36%, 26%, 38%    30%    4%    85%
Oklahoma    10, 48%, 29%, 23%    89%    23%    98%
Oklahoma State    9, 39%, 28%, 34%    73%    12%    95%
Ole Miss    6, 47%, 25%, 28%    2%    0%    28%
Oregon    10, 40%, 30%, 30%    91%    30%    99%
Oregon State    5, 30%, 25%, 45%    10%    0%    22%
Penn State    8, 46%, 27%, 27%    22%    2%    79%
Pittsburgh    9, 41%, 27%, 32%    34%    11%    94%
Purdue    7, 38%, 27%, 35%    8%    1%    62%
Rice    4, 41%, 29%, 31%    3%    0%    3%
Rutgers    7, 47%, 24%, 29%    3%    0%    53%
San Diego State    7, 36%, 27%, 37%    6%    1%    64%
San Jose State    5, 32%, 25%, 43%    4%    0%    10%
SMU    7, 25%, 27%, 49%    50%    1%    75%
South Carolina    9, 34%, 28%, 38%    50%    14%    96%
South Florida    8, 45%, 26%, 28%    10%    2%    79%
Southern Miss    9, 37%, 28%, 34%    77%    12%    95%
Stanford    9, 36%, 27%, 36%    77%    13%    95%
Syracuse    6, 26%, 24%, 50%    3%    0%    50%
TCU    9, 36%, 35%, 30%    18%    6%    99%
Temple    6, 46%, 25%, 29%    17%    0%    29%
Tennessee    8, 44%, 28%, 29%    12%    2%    81%
Texas    7, 28%, 24%, 48%    44%    2%    72%
Texas A&M    8, 35%, 26%, 39%    63%    4%    85%
Texas Tech    7, 48%, 26%, 26%    13%    0%    52%
Toledo    7, 30%, 27%, 43%    60%    1%    70%
Troy    8, 36%, 29%, 36%    81%    2%    86%
Tulane    4, 27%, 28%, 45%    1%    0%    7%
Tulsa    7, 43%, 27%, 30%    49%    0%    57%
UAB    4, 24%, 26%, 51%    4%    0%    9%
UCLA    7, 48%, 24%, 28%    27%    0%    52%
UNLV    2, 27%, 35%, 38%    0%    0%    0%
USC    8, 33%, 26%, 41%    62%    5%    86%
Utah    7, 48%, 24%, 27%    36%    0%    52%
Utah State    3, 37%, 30%, 33%    0%    0%    1%
UTEP    3, 41%, 30%, 28%    0%    0%    0%
Vanderbilt    4, 27%, 27%, 46%    0%    0%    8%
Virginia    6, 27%, 25%, 49%    5%    0%    49%
Virginia Tech    10, 29%, 30%, 41%    79%    41%    100%
Wake Forest    4, 28%, 26%, 45%    1%    0%    8%
Washington    6, 31%, 27%, 43%    18%    0%    43%
Washington State    4, 34%, 29%, 38%    1%    0%    5%
West Virginia    8, 29%, 26%, 45%    23%    6%    89%
Western Kentucky    4, 29%, 27%, 45%    4%    0%    7%
Western Michigan    7, 46%, 28%, 27%    38%    0%    54%
Wisconsin    9, 45%, 28%, 28%    37%    9%    94%
Wyoming    6, 41%, 30%, 29%    0%    0%    29%

DU, previous 2 posts are your numbers

Here is how you read it

Texas    7, 28%, 24%, 48%    44%    2%    72%

Most likely number of Season Wins is 7
28% chance for more than 7 wins
24% chance for exactly 7 wins
48% chance for less than 7 wins 

44% chance for 6+ wins in Conference
2% chance for 11 wins on the year
72% chance for 6 or more wins (Bowl Eligible)

I counted every game between FBS and FCS as a sure win for the FBS team

I gave every team the same home field edge

If the game is neutral, but is played nearer one team, I did not give a home field edge to either team

If any of my numbers look funny to you, let me know so I can research it.

Thank u very Much Brother Thorpe

good interesting stuff here thorpe..im not a big math or stats guy but this is very fun to read and analyze

You have Houston with 8 wins.

They are going to lose 4 games ?????

They get Keenum back. There is no way no way no way they are only gonna win 8 games.

They dont play anyone after week 1 against UCLA. And they are favored in that game.

If they can beat UCLA they should and probably will finish 12-0.

Where you see 4 losses is beyond me. Look at that soft schedule.

Ok possibly Tulsa.

Does any book have a season win total for Houston ?

If so, the number would have to be 10 1/2 or 10 with heavy juice on the over.

Houstons Schedule after UCLA

North Texas

La Tech

Ga State

UTEP

East Carolina

Marshall

Rice

UAB

Tulane

SMU

Tulsa

Case Keenum is one of the best QB's in the nation. He was injured much of last season.

 

This Coming from the LiarSAF  that Just Joined , but went 70% Last year

 

RedWolves   Red Devils

I like the depth in Conf USA this year.   Houston plays very little defense.  We will see what happens.  DU's numbers are probab;y a little better than mine.

Rivals.com has Houston at 46 in the country, so I trust them more than a SAF who is calling for at worst 11 wins for a team that plays very soft defense.  46 in the country with a soft schedule equates to 8 or 9 wins on the year.

2nd list looks better

1st list had Wisc and Neb at 8, VT 9, among others off

 

Thorpe you say that #46 ranking in the nation and playing a very soft schedule equates to 4 losses ? I guess we will just have to disagree on that one.

Their Defense might not be that great ( although is was good enough for them to beat a supposed national title contending Ok State at Ok State in 2009 ), but their D wont be facing too many stud offenses this year.

How great does their D have to be against North Texas, La Tech, Ga State, SMU, UAB, Marshall, etc ? 

Team plays noone. They wont lose 4 games.

Yeah and I will say that - Houston will win 10 games at absolute worst.

 

You can have over 9.  I will take under 9 season wins and we'll see how this plays out this year. 

Even with the wins at Miss St and OK St, Houston has been a .500 team on the road the last 6 years.  They have 6 road games this year, and I give them 3 losses. 

Houston has UCLA, SMU, and some weaker teams at home,  I think they go 5-1 at home.  That makes 8-4.

"Rivals.com has Houston at 46 in the country, so I trust them more than a SAF who is calling for at worst 11 wins for a team that plays very soft defense.  46 in the country with a soft schedule equates to 8 or 9 wins on the year." -- THORPE

 

LOL 9-0 so far. Who exactly is going to keep this team from finishing the regular season undefeated ????

 

Oh thats right, they were going to lose 4 games.

 

LOL this guy don't have a clue. I go to Houston and Keenum is playing out of his mind. Good luck with under 9 win this season. Oh yea UH is playing Tulane this week. Looks like 10-0 to me.