National Championship

Semi-final: 2-0
Pending: Michigan 10/1 pre-season 

Not making a big bet here given the above ticket, but always like breaking down and discussing the final game of the season. Think I had a pretty good read on both semi final games and feel pretty strong about this one too. 

In short, UW is exactly the type of team Michigan is built for. Very similar to Ohio St when they had Stroud along with Olave, JSN, and Wilson who are now all shredding the NFL. Michigan rebuilt its team during the COVID year and conquered the OSU mountain the following season. The 2021 game specifically stands out to me & I think the game plan is the same here. 

Penix has a great OL, he’s incredible to watch but I’m ok with him as a drop back passer. Not a very mobile guy and I’m ok if he piles up 350 pass yards tomorrow. Michigan needs to keep the ball in front of them, prevent the long TD and make UW earn it when the field condenses. Also think he will make a few mistakes, he hasn’t had to operate under pressure much but I think UM gets home tomorrow. Too much depth, too big up front. Penix, when pressured is significantly worse with a QBR in the 70’s. 

….

This is the difference in the game.  How much time will Penix have to survey the field w that Michigan pass rush  ?

If that semifinal is any indication from UM vs. Bama...... not much. 

The Washington vs Arizona St game this season shows how bad Washington can be with a decent pass rush.  Please review that game because I know Michigan will.

Flip side - 

UW is not a great defensive team. In fact they’re statistically one of the worst total defenses out there. Give up a lot of run yards. Michigan should be able to lean on the run and also take shots when UW inches in. 

Everyone keeps talking about T.O.P and how Michigan will just run but I don’t think that’s the case. Michigan will take whatever the team gives em and can go air or ground effectively. Play calling vs Alabama was elite, OL settled in nicely after the Zinter injury. 

Back to the 2021 OSU game. OSU won the T.O.P, won the TO battle, Stroud threw for 394 yards, and OSU got beat by 15. This Michigan team is quite a bit better at QB and much better defensively - especially the back end. 

Love what UW has been able to do this season I just think this is exactly the type of team Michigan is built to face. Have this line Michigan -7.5 and think that’s light given the matchup. Washington can of course win this game so if you like them I’d take the ML. After all, look at last year.. Michigan quite a bit better than TCU but lost outright. That required 2 pick 6’s and Michigan walking away with 0 points inside the 5 yard line 3x. Still only a 6 point game. 

last thing UM #1 in TO margin and penalties. UW even in TO margin and one of the most penalized teams in the country.

I’m made a small 1u bet on Michigan -4.5 and think they win by double digits here as long as we take care of the ball. Mostly riding the future bet. 

One word of caution is this is always a spot where we seem to slip up. Almost blew it on a safety vs Alabama and made some real big mistakes that let Alabama hang around last week. Penix can certainly make them pay. Just hope the rust is shaken off and they leave most of the trick plays at home. Cant give UW extra possessions. 

Love a few props and will share prior to kickoff! 

I like Michigan also, I think Michigan is gonna be very physical tomorrow both on offense running ball and d 

Great analysis. I recently did a write up on how Michigan is built to beat the high-powered offense of OSU, and this is simply a bad matchup for the Huskies because they have very similar traits.  I like your comparison to when they beat OSU a few years back when the Buckeyes had Olave, Garrett Wilson, and Smith-Njigba. Washington  has 3 NFL receivers as well. I understand every game is different, but the Buckeyes passed for 400 yards that game and still lost. Michigan rushed for 300 yards very easily. I see a similar fate here. BOL

@MrFreedo

 For sure. Just can’t show up and play the way they did vs TCU. It’s not disrespect to UW I just think this is exactly who Michigan is comfortable with a built to beat. 

Alabama OL has been an issue all season long. Not surprised by that and UW won the Joe Moore award this year.  Another important note is their RB got hurt last week - looked pretty bad so even if he plays he’s nowhere close to 100%.  He has been GREAT in pass protection so that’s a big deal in this matchup. Michigan just rolls too many bodies out there, will be difficult for UW to hold up for 4 quarters imo

Also, Deboer is a better coach than Harbaugh.....which most people would disagree on without knowing anything about it.....

GL sir

@TRAIN69

Certainly better than Alabama! Still think Michigan brings the heat with how much depth is on that line. Not to mention the athleticism from dudes like Graham and Grant who are 330ish over a C who’s 270. Gonna need help there I think. If this were a semi final game I’d agree with you on the second point but I think the quicker turn around helps UM as far as preparation goes

@TRAIN69

 and Michigan has a better coaching staff and it’s not even remotely close 

Prop: 

Donovan Edwards O 15.5 Receiving 

Texas backs had 6 catches for 80+ yards. Think Michigan can line him up in the slot or put him with Corum and he’ll draw a lot of attention from the D as a decoy. Think the Don is in for a nice game here. 

JJ O 275 pass yards +580

longer shot but if UM were to get behind he’s throwing more and hits this, plus just think the shots will be there and this narrative of nothing but running the ball is a little unrealistic. Remember it isn’t necessarily Michigan controlling the ball/clock, it’s making UW run a lot of plays when they’ve got it - not just ripping off quick TDs. 

Colston Loveland o 35.5 receiving 

Go to guy all year in the prop market- let’s ride once more. 

Ja’Lynn Polk O 53.5 receiving 

Again think they pile up a lot of pass yards and think Michigan is very much ok with it as long as it’s not 1-2 play drives. Lots of yards and tighten up red zone. Think you can take your pick with a number of different receivers here.

Forgot to share my stats regarding the above! Man this is why you don’t post at 2am! 

Heres what I mean by making Washington go on drives. It gets them out of their comfort zone to some degree. The UW offense is top 10 in the country at 38 ppg. They rank way down at 92nd in plays per game though. They don’t possess it a ton and they like to make quick work of it. The more Penix is forced to drop back the more he’s prone to the mistake, especially when pressured. 

The other thing is he’s a rhythm guy so if Michigan can get him off his spots and at some point keep him on the sideline for an extended period he usually isn’t as sharp. 

Should be a great battle on the field!!

Same for the Oregon/UW game in October. Ducks outgain them by 130 yards on the road and Lanning coached them to an L. Two trips inside the 10 with no points. Choosing not to punt from midfield WITH the lead late in the game. Then a missed FG as the cherry on top. That’ll be the recipe to how UM loses this game (similar to the TCU semi final last yr)

@HockeyNight11

 Great insight…thanks for sharing and good luck to you on all your plays!

@MrFreedo

 That game was played in crappy weather not ideal for throwing the ball. This game will have perfect conditions ideal for throwing the ball. Keep that in mind.

Dont agree with this at all. Was at that game there was no wind to effect the ball. The field was clear for the majority of the 2H when UM took control of that game…. And in 2022 same scenario - and it was 60 and sunny. 

HockeyNight, perfect assessment of Penix in your opening paragraph! 

   Penix does NOT handle pressure well at all, not accurate or comfortable being flushed and on the move, Int waiting to happen. They will struggle once they fall behind. If Wash falls behind early, they are in huge trouble and Penix will look EXTREMELY normal & vulnerable! UW def will struggle stopping Mich run gm, especially over a 3 hour game!
 Mich D and running gm keeps them in control of this game pretty much all night.

Michigan comfortably wins! 13-18 points .

( Just one guys opinion! )

?? GLTA that play! ??

@BeeHive

 Now it just needs to play out on the field. Can’t wait for this game but bittersweet always as this season flew by quicker than ever 

Michigan and the over!!!

Go Blue!! For fun I have a little weekend homer correct score parlay of Detroit 30 Minnesota 20 along with Michigan 38 Washington 23 that will send me to early retirement 

GL to all and enjoy the game 

@HockeyNight11