NCAA FB WEEK 0/1

Week 0:

Week 1:

Hawaii +17

UConn +22.5

North Texas +7.5-117

UTEP + Nebraska over 48.5

I like hawaii in this spot to show up in their 2nd game of the season after getting a tune up game against FCS bottom feeder Delaware state in week 1. typically the game under belt scenario doesnt favor the team who as played, as the opponent now has film on you, but I think we will see a very close to the vest game plan for hawaii in week 1 and they can still cruise to a 45-14 type win against the Hornets, who will surely be taking it all in and sight seeing/ beaching it, etc in this vacation of a lifetime for them.

The bows are back for year 3 under timmy chang and I like the offensive continuity they bring back. THey have 11 OL in the 2 deep that have been in the system, I love the WR group, Schaeger should take a big step forward this season, and they will exploit the UCLA inexperience in the secondary. Hawaii will have a bye week after this contest (3 bye weeks this year for playing on week 0 AND not scheduling a 13th game) UCLA has offensive problems losing Dante Moore and Carson Steele and they lose their center and RG and will have to figure out new schemes on the OL which takes time. Their back 7 on defense is inexperienced and the secondary is in for it a bit especially if the DL cannot get pressure, which is hard to do anyway against the run and shoot when it is clicking. 

UCLA special teams remains a sore spot for their team, and they are breaking in a new Kicker and punter. Outside of stanford and USC last year the UCLA offense really struggled, and the time to break in the new group may not be on the island in the middle of the day hawaii local time. Hawaii has some dudes and as long as they can protect and move the ball which i suspect they will do, There is no reason they cannot hang in there and keep this game close. Really like this spot for Hawaii at home. +17.

Utep at Nebraska over 48.5

Feel like we are getting a total that is 10 points too low based on last years team. UTEP offense was atrocious last year, mostly due to poor playcalling from Dana and crew, but also they were very unlucky as there were many games where they had big explosive plays and Touchdowns called back due to holding/ OPI/ other penalties, and just a team that was way to conservative and inconsistent. The table was set in week 1 where they were losing @ jax state despite severely outgaining the gamecocks, and driving for the winning score, they were at the 24 yard line, 2nd and 1, they throw a fade pass at the goal line that was incomplete. They come back on 3rd down with a similar pass, and on 4th downthey passed again, incomplete, rather than attempting to get the first down and move forward from there. They had a long TD called back early in the game, and lost. They had a long TD called back against LT, another against NMSU, and they could just not get out of their own way offensively. They also played slow on offense last season often snapping the ball with 1-3 seconds left on the play clock, and sadly Gavin Hardison regressed each of his 3 seasons at utep. Just could not improve, despite excellent WR and TE group. 

This year they bring in high energy scotty walden from Austin Peay U, who did a great job turning around that FCS bottom feeder and made them into a respectable FCS team. He brings coordinators (D and ST from app, OC from LT) and 15 APU players with him, and they should play with more energy and tempo this year on offense, compared to what we are used to from UTEP. Their defense which was decent last year losses a ton of production, and their front 7 is decimated. They lose a ton of dudes on the DL/LB crew and the secondary remains okay, but without getting pressure and if the DL gets gashed in the run game, utep could be exposed in the back end frequently this year. Their kicking game is solid with the LS and K returning and could be relied on to the tune of a B- grade in my opinion.

Nebraska fans are getting somewhat restless with the lack of offensive production, and they are sick of the turnovers, low scoring losses, and pissing games away like we have seen from the huskers for years. I think this is a perfect opportunity for the huskers to Run the ball successfully all game, gash utep in the trenches, which will open up the pass game where they should feast. I think nebraska needs to post a big number here to set the tone for their season, where they have expectation to get back to a bowl game and more, for the first time in 8 years. shocking that they have been as bad as they have for so long. 

I think the cap for me in this one is the motivation for NU to really exercise some demons on offense, the reps late in the game will be meaningful to work on stuff and put some stuff on film for colorado (following week) to analyze, and they will need to create some excitement and buzz around the offense early in the season. Matt Rhule will get this ship sailing in the right direction, i am certain, and it starts here. UTEP will play faster, and will also continue working on their stuff with year 1 of a new scheme, and I think we will see a situation where NU gets in the 40's themselves, conservatively UTEP should get to 10-14. 

Sept 21st week 4 spot. 

shhhh. I will be betting Boston college in week 4 at home against Michigan State on sept 21st. No matter what the line is. 

@steponaduck

 Will be on Hawaii as well.....Great write ups...

Quick FCS write up if you all are interested. 

Sir it is refreshing to read thoughtful analysis of the early action.  Always thought week 1 of college football was a great time to be in Vegas!

Week 0:

Week 1:  *Updated*

Hawaii +17 (bet365)

UConn +22.5 (bet365)

North Texas +7.5-117 (FD)

UTEP + Nebraska over 48.5 (FD)

Vanderbilt + VT under 55.5 (bet365)

USC + LSU under 66.5 (bet365)

bet 365 hung a couple stale totals out there a little too long. If you have them, I would advise jumping in if you like under, as those are moving downward quickly. 

Underdog ML parlay candidates. Week 0-1. 

*** not official plays. Just ideas. Let’s hear YOURS TOO***

FAU +350

Stanford +260

WVU +300

Miami OH +150

Hawaii +470

Charlotte +245

USC +168

@steponaduck

 Bol this coming year I’ll be looking out for your plays 

@steponaduck

 Hawaii +13 Now......

@lmb4321

 Still can get 15.5 at many books. Gotta be awake or people will be left with the worst possible line 5 minutes before kickoff!! 

Looks like we're starting to see some betting action. Phil Steele's mag. must

be starting to arrive. Nice call on the ' Bows + 17.  Good Luck bud   

Adding charlotte +10.5 -114 at BM 

Week 0:

 New Mexico +7.5 -120 (FD)

Week 1:  *Updated*

Hawaii +17 (bet365)

UConn +22.5 (bet365)

North Texas +7.5-117 (FD)

UTEP + Nebraska over 48.5 (FD)

Vanderbilt + VT under 55.5 (bet365)

USC + LSU under 66.5 (bet365)

charlotte +10.5 -114 (bookmaker)

USC  +6.5  vs LSU 

In Vegas.  USC QB Miller Moss is the real deal.  Lots of points.  New D coordinator.

LSU lost a lot to the draft.  

Hello Friends. Been working hard on deep diving the MAC for a few podcasts that I was asked to participate in over the coming weeks. Here are a few notes on the league to bring you all up to speed. 

MAC ODDS (CIRCA- JULY 4TH)

TEAM       ODDS       RSW O/U

TOLEDO +275        8.5

MIAMI OH +350     7.5

NIU +550              6.5

BG + 700             6.5

WMU +800            6.5

OHIO U +1000       6.5

CMU +1000          5.5

BUFFALO +2000     5.5

AKRON +2500       3.5

BALL ST +2500     4.5

EMU +2500           4.5

KENT 100/1          2.5 

MAC CHANGES FOR 2024: NO MORE East-West divisions. Instead the MAC will go to 4 pods of 3 teams each to protect historical rivalries, top 2 teams in conference win % will play in detroit for the MAC championship game. Those pods will include:

1. EMU, CMU, WMU

2. Akron, Kent, Buffalo

3. Ball St, Ohio, Miami OH

4. BG, Toledo, NIU

Key losses in the conference: 

Toledo- QB Finn, RB Perry Boone

NIU- Lombardi graduates

CMU: QB Jace Bauer (phil still has Bert Emanuel as the #2 somehow going into this season) Trey Jones (#1 tackler) LB Kyle Moretti

WMU: RB Treyson Bourguet

EMU: CB Kempton Shine, Top 2 RB gone

Ball St: TE Brady Hunt, S Jordan Riley, RB Marquez cooper their top player from last year, only 1 ret. starter on D

Miami Oh: RB Amos, WR Larvadian, Solid All mac Kicker gone

BG: RB Kieth

Ohio: everyone...QB gone. RB gone, top 6 WR gone. 

Kent: CJ West, Capone Blue CB, 

Buffalo: QB Cole snyder (trans. to EMU) TE Cameron Ball, Coaching Turnover only team in MAC with a new coach this year

Akron: Corner Tyson Durant, Safety KJ Martin, QB Gone

KENT STATE: RSW o/u 2.5   Conf odds 100/1

Notes: Worst team in FBS last season. 270 ypg and 14.7 ppg, bad by all standards. Year 2 for HC, still no continuity

Staff: TE coach and DL coach left after spring practice, DC Stepped down in April. Short staffed in Year 2, not good. 

4 OL Starters return, Ulatowski likely the starter at QB, KY Thomas is the leading returning rusher. "BIG PLAY" McCray is a guy to watch out for at WR. 

Defense cycles through losing some crappy players, and bringing in some uninspiring transfers. same ole same ole. 

Kent state only Power Rated within a TD of 3 other Mac Teams, they are really at the bottom of an already bad league:

Schedule: @ Pitt @ Tennessee @Penn State all losses   tough roadies @ BG @ Miami OH @ WMU @ Buffalo

Hosting: SF PA (FCS) EMU Ball State Ohio Akron (big rivalry, for the wagon wheel, Kent blew this game badly last season)

Could be a dog in 10 or 11 games this season. My projected outlook is anywhere from 1-11 to 3-9 as a best case scenario. 

RSW Recommendation: Pass (would lean under but really no play)

Spots:

Fade against Tennesse (if vols laying 42 or less)

Fade against SF PA if Kent is laying 17 or more, play the flashes...eh. the Red flashes

May be a "play On" spot hosting akron late in the year. 

Akron: RSW o/5 3.5 Conference +2500

2023: Much more competitive than their record suggests.
--lost to indiana by 2 points in 4 OT
--lost to Buffalo in OT
--lost to EMU in 2OT
Really competitive vs. Temple, CMU and ohio (lead ohio 14-3 at HF)
outgained miami oh and won the first downs 14-11 (lost 19-0 as +16...but super competitive)

COaches: OC is vacant as of spring ball, Joe Morehead to call the plays.
QB Ben Finley in from cal after losing last years starters (used 3 QBs last year, non effective)
Big focus on the OL in the spring, to increase the rushing success and reduce sacks. (Who TF doesnt do that...but hope they were serious about it)

Defense- top 5 tacklers return. #31 in YPP, #32 in total d. wild stats for a team this bad, the Stop unit was clearly not the issue. CJ Nunnally might be the best defensive player in the Mid american conference.
secondary is weaker with 2 solid safetys transfering to P5.

Schedule. @ Ohio STate @ SUNJ @ Sou Carolina @ ohio @ WMY @ NIU @ Kent
Hosting Colgate (must win, dont dick around like you did ly against Morgan state) BG EMU BUFFALO TOLEDO

Outlook: might be a really tough out, especially if the passing game develops to help out the already above avg. defense. special teams is still horrific, cannot rely on the kicking game, and kick coverage is still below a C- grade. 3-9 is what I would peg this team at, but they are on the come. I think they could give rutgers a game for a while (maybe we can catch +34 with them) and like...they have to BLAST colgate or something is wrong...

Would maybe Play on Them Oct. 26th vs EMU and Maybe +34 @ SUNJ...

RSW Recommendation: Pass. (lean under 3.5, would play under 4.0 -170 or less but no where to be found)

Will post Buffalo and Eastern Michigan tomorrow mates. 

@1969USC

 I'm definitely joining you but I'm going a +7 shows up

@steponaduck

 Good look on Hawaii, was able to salvage a 14. This is really tough spot for the Brucrew with an overhauled secondary and offense. 

I am really high on Wyoming+7 @ ASU. Any thoughts on that? 

Miami Ohio at + 350 to win the Conference looks like it may be worth a play.

thanks for stopping In. 

Miami oh loses a lot and with the up and down nature of the MAC and their QB injury history I am not interested in backing Miami Ohio. 

also, this is +260 everywhere. I think only one book in the world has the odds that you are getting and for me to bet this I might have to get on an airplane to have access. 

Buffalo: RSW o/u 5.5 Conference +2000 to win the mac

Only new coach in the MAC this season, Pete lembo- former Ball State coach. Solid hire IMO

OC Patenaude- eh. we will see what creativity he brings

DC- Joe Bowen, developed some solid linebackers while at Miami OH

offense: no skill guys back this year, lose QB, RB, top 5 wr. some solid transfers in the portal yet to know what they will be though. 

apparently deciding between 4-5 QBS (Ogbanna/Shield) 

Taji Johnson xfers in from BC

OL should be better 4 OL return

?defense: Lose leading pass rusher and Andreseen solid player

Devin Grant Gone

Lembo focuses and emphasizes special teams and has historically had solid special teams units at other stops. 

Schedule:

@Missou @ NIU @ Uconn @ ohio @ Akron @ EMU

host lafayette, umass toledo wmu ball state kent st

lots of winnable games on the slate could be anywhere from 8-5 to 3-9 IMO, lotta variance but if the offense clicks they could be okay. or they could lose to FCS Lafayette. 

RSW Recommendation: Pass

Schedule spots

Fade @ Missouri, Missou team total over

Play on Oct 12th hosting toledo (rockets at miss st, at wky, host miami, then back on the road)

Play on Nov 12 hosting ball state. You think lembo wont have that one circled in RED ink? Buffalo could be in serious bowl contention and at 4-5 or 5-4 this game will be huge for them without question. at home. 

Play on Nov 26 hosting kent state (if not bowl eligible) playing for bowl eligibility and getting this win in snowy buffalo will be huge, while kent will be ready to pack it in. )