NCAA FB WEEK 0/1

Eastern Michigan RSW o/u 4.5 +2500 for Conference

Chris Creighton- year 11 already. took possibly the worst FBS program and made them damn respectable going to 6 bowl games in 10 years...when they had 1 bowl appearance in their history before that?? Charlie batch has to be loving this one...

2023- bowl eligible team but they were a bad football team last season. #129 yards per play, outgained severely last year all season. Struggled with HOward. SUPER lucky to cover vs. Minnesota (down 19 and punting from their own endzone. punt gets blocked, almost returned for a TD. Minn gets it at the 12, gets a first down, has 1st and goal from the 2 with less than a minute left, and is running plays to try to score. EMU bowed up on D and held them out...Struggled against UMASS, struggled with kent and akron, and then ultimately gets blasted in the bowl game. super uncompetitive there. 

Might have the best transfer class in the MAC this season. New QB, from Buffalo, Cole snyder

both top RBs gone, top WR Knue gone. 3 transfers in on the OL

lose their top 3 LB, Lose top 4 secondary guys. defense could be terrible this year. 

Special teams remains a solid focus for this team and they are good at it, respectively. 

Schedule @ Umass, @ Washington @ kent @ akron @ ohio @ WMU

?Hosting Jax, SFPA (FCS), miami oh, cmu, toledo, buffalo

Really good week 1 matchup @ Umass, definitely thinking this game could be high scoring and will look to potentially play "over" 48.5

Will look to PLAY ON eastern Michigan on Oct. 12th hosting Miami of Ohio. why would I do that? Miami hosts their big rival Cincinatti, then they go to the cathedral, then they have homecoming, then they play at toledo. THEN....tough roady @ EMU...eagles could be catching 11.5 or more, and will absolutely be backing the eagles in this situational spot. Lots of paump and circumstance for miami all season with rival, @ ND, homecoming, HUGE mac game at toledo, and then following EMU they host another rival in Ohio U....sneaky good spot to back EMU here...shhhhh. dont tell anyone. 

RSW Recommendation: this is one I havent played but considering over 4.5 

Winnable games:

@ Umass 

SFPA

@ Kent St

CMU

@ Akron

@ Ohio

Buffalo

@WMU

and the aforementioned dream spot to catch miami ohio. I wouldnt be shocked if EMU is in bowl contention again this season, and i see 4-8 as a worse case scenario, and could be 6-6 or 7-5 if everything goes their way...I would and I am still considering playing over 4.5 at -135

Week 0:

New Mexico +7.5 -120 (FD)

Week 1:  *Updated*

Hawaii +17 (bet365)

UConn +22.5 (bet365)

North Texas +7.5-117 (FD)

UTEP + Nebraska over 48.5 (FD)

Vanderbilt + VT under 55.5 (bet365)

USC + LSU under 66.5 (bet365)

charlotte +10.5 -114 (bookmaker)

Umass + EMU over 48.5 -112 (heritage)

Hawaii week 0 -27.5 (FanDuel). 

Stop stealing my plays! - that I haven't posted yet ha

Like every one those buddy - I need to move to a more civilized state ...... sigh

BOL this year ........... 

@bookieassassin

 I just did this year. Moved across country and live on the beach now in Wilmington NC. 

Week 0:

Hawaii -27.5 (FD)

New Mexico +7.5 -120 (FD)

Week 1:  *Updated*

Hawaii +17 (bet365)

UConn +22.5 (bet365)

North Texas +7.5-117 (FD)

UTEP + Nebraska over 48.5 (FD)

Vanderbilt + VT under 55.5 (bet365)

USC + LSU under 66.5 (bet365)

charlotte +10.5 -114 (bookmaker)

Umass + EMU over 48.5 -112 (heritage)

@steponaduck

 Got a buddy that did that same exact thing .....  

Step - do you have a perspective on August 24, 2024 SMU -24 @ Nevada?   Lots of points on the road, but Nevada breaking in new coach, new coordinators, and a bottom 10 team...SMU is legit, but are they -24 legit in week 0? 

yes. We all should have played SMU -19

at 25 or so I am looking at playing Nevada. 

SMU has much bigger fish to fry than blasting Nevada in week 0 

Week 0:

Hawaii -27.5 (FD)

New Mexico +7.5 -120 (FD)

Week 1:  *Updated*

Hawaii +17 (bet365)

UConn +22.5 (bet365)

North Texas +7.5-117 (FD)

UTEP + Nebraska over 48.5 (FD)

Vanderbilt + VT under 55.5 (bet365)

USC + LSU under 66.5 (bet365)

charlotte +10.5 -114 (bookmaker)

Umass + EMU over 48.5 -112 (heritage)

UTSA -20.5 -115 (heritage)  .5u

Jacksonville State -3.5 -108 (heritage)   .5u

Syracuse -13.5 -115 (heritage)  .5u

could only get down .5u at heritage at this time but getting these wagers locked in now, and will write up shortly. Really like these spots here 

KENNESAW STATE @ UTSA -20.5 (HERITAGE SPORTS)

You will not find a better number on this game as the line has steamed to -22.5 and should close around -26 as we approach week 1. Kennesaw state has a robust history at the FCS level but the last several years have been mediocre to poor in performance. Their QB's have 11 career FBS pass attempts, the rotate 7 backs in on offense, and i feel this team will be weaker in the trenches than what is required in this matchup with UTSA, just hard to see kennesaw stopping the run, or getting penetration on the OL to create running lanes. How are they going to move the football in this particular road matchup. Just hard with a team who struggled with NAIA lincoln college, and lostr the majority of their FCU games competing here, going to take some time....if utsa scores 35 this cover should not even be in question. UTSA has a ton back on offense and defense and their QB situation is a question, but they should be in 2nd or 3rd and short all game, so easy conversions, stay on the field offensively, and give the QB easy throws.  major mismatch here. 

J-State -3.5, just a gut play, I feel that what Coastal Carolina loses, combined with the road situation here, and we have a revenge situation from last year for jacksonville state gives us a situation where the much better team is only laying a small number. I am not confident in what coastal brings back, I think they take a step back this season  in the win column, and J-state is typically rock solid at home. not a lot of meat and potatoes to this write up but I feel J-state is the correct play in this particular matchup. THink JSU will be able to gash in the run game, and the explosiveness that we saw last season will be there for them in this matchup. 

Syracuse -13.5- Just a game one fade of what ohio lost. QB gone. RB gone. top 6 pass catchers gone. strong TE gone. Defensive studs gone. just going to take some time to get things rolling and going to the carrier dome and trying to do that against ACC foe syracuse is not the environment to work out the kinks. Syracuse offense should be really explosive with McCord coming in from Ohio State at QB, two boss style receivers (CSU transfer and Oronde Gadsen JR) and an offensive line in MUCH better shape. and they are at home, (8-3-1 ATS as a home fave the L3 yrs), They own FCS and MAC competition and take these games very seriously and this one sets the tone.    There is some transition at the coordinators  which is a risk in this situation, but asking ohio to score 20+ against a P5 opponent with all of the fire power they lost, and there is a real chance here that this game is wildly out of hand, quickly. could see 28-7 at half and ohio stuck in the mud the 2nd half, with Cuse absolutely controllling every aspect of the contest. Syracuse started strong each of the last two seasons so early in the season is the correct time to back them...37-13

Here is my best favorite in week 1 on the board to consider, my number play for week 1...Georgia Tech -20.5 over Georgia State...This is a huge mismatch, both Atlanta Teams...Georgia State with a 1st year coach, and a rebuilding year, bottom 5 team..,with only 10 returning starters, 4 on O and 6 on D...new coordinators, new starting QB, new starting RB...sounds similar to Ohio...GT has 13 returning starters including 8 on O...Haynes King tr from TAMU back at QB.  GT returns start RB, 4 of 5 starting lineman.  Former DC at Duke and TAMU taking over at DC for GT, which prima facie sounds like an upgrade.  Key in 3rd year as HC. Like Cuse will be hungry in week 1, so will GT, from my perspective...

When you get a chance, please tell me what you think...

I like the Cuse pick, a lot...

And i may look at UTSA.  New QB, but playing in the Alamodome against an overmatched KS, this should be a beat down...Now I have to review your dogs, to see if I see a live one, that I can play!  

@bookieassassin

 Found you

@bookieassassin

 Found you??

@winners1941

 there he is !! ......

Man you know where I post - Wolfe will probably be there too

I love that Hawaii/Del St pick. I was too late at least in PA. Only one book had it, I think, and y'all obliterated into hiding again 

not trying to take you off your favorite play, but I would not have a lot of interest in betting Georgia Tech to lay three touchdowns, coming off the Dublin game, where you have to think they’re going to max out and empty the tank against Florida State in conference, halfway across the world. no extra rest and they have to come home to battle little brother in state rival, inner city rival, I have no interest in that particular game 

In fact, I have made it a habit to bet Georgia Tech as a big dog, and fed them as a big fave

@steponaduck

 I did not realize the week 0 game will be played in Dublin...That's important...Jet Lag...missed practice, taking it lightly...Under normal circumstances, say in week 1, with no lookahead, it would be an autoplay, on the merits...And come to think of it, its a sandwich, they play @Cuse in week 2...I still think they destroy Georgia State, but there are some serious risks...I may back off.  Thanks...

Would look at maybe an over in that matchup. Could see GT getting up but not sure how important it will be for them to extend the margin in this game especially given the conference sandwich. They also have a tendency to let lesser foes hang around. Badly. 

2023

lost outright hosting BG +24

Lost ATS vs south Carolina state -44

2022

lost ATS hosting W. Carolina -20

2021

lost outright hosting No. Illinois -19

2019

lost outright hosting Citadel -26 

just not a good fave. Under any circumstances. In fact GT is 2-11-1 ATS as a Home fave since 2018. And 6-17 ATS in the non-con during that same time.  Could actually make a strong case for Georgia State ATS in this one. 

also one of Phil Steele's old capping metrics he liked so much that used to fail him often was the "game under belt" scenario, he interpreted this as an advantage for the team that has already played, as they get a chance to get live game reps and crash the pads a bit, but the stats show otherwise that a team who has a game played vs a foe who is playing in their first game, the team who HASN'T played has the advantage ATS over 10-15 years of data. Having film on your opponent is a huge adv. 

I am thrilled to share that I was able to participate in a great college football podcast this week with the fine folks over at @leantsports, discussing the MAC and covering futures, teams likely to compete for the conference championship, changes within the league, and regular season wins. 

These two guys have a really solid analytical model and strict adherence to their numbers, and they do pretty well with it. Will share more with you all if interested, or you can reach out to me on bluebird X

@steponaduck

 Congrats!   Keep up the great work!

DUCK IS THE MAAAAN!!!!

@steponaduck

 Congrats on the Gig....