NCAA FB WEEK 72-49 YTD

Started working on week 6 last night. Will have some early thoughts after lines come out. 

19-10 LAST WEEK 

Week 5 **Recap**

Thurs:
Sam Houston State Team Total under 14.5 -106 .6  bad play, never had a chance. had 14 points in the 1st quarter

jax state live +11.5 .6  great live spot, they rallied and won SU

Fri:
Oregon State ML -115  controlled from the get-go, was never in question. thorough domination
UTEP ML -103. .6u. Absolute last stand with the miners this season for me.  UTEP..on the banned list. never again with these guys

Saturday:
Alabama -14
California -10.5
Bowling Green +24
South Alabama +4
South Alabama -3 +194
Oklahoma -19
Eastern Michigan +7.5
Memphis -1
UMASS -1
New Mexico +15.5
Northern Illinois +14
Georgia -13.5 -120
West Virginia +13.5 -112
2 Team ML Parlay. Texas State + Rice. +146
Purdue ML -112
Louisiana Lafayette +11.5
*Air Force + San Diego State over 41 -120

***FCS Rutgers -45

***FCS North Texas -14.5

***FCS Western Carolina -22.5

***FCS William and Mary -2

PUSH  northwestern +28

south Alabama +8.5 live

memphis +7.5 live

Baylor +19 live 

nIU ML +566 .33u live 

The Bad:

Cal...never could put them away and it cost them the cover in the 4th quarter. Surprised how disinterested they looked

Georgia- yikes. never threatened here. couldnt get it going offensively. one of these times they are going to lose outright and get burned by these performances. 

Umass- yikes. what an embarrassment. why did I bet on these guys again? have seemed to regress weekly after winning their opener. 

South Alabama- I mean are you f-in kidding me. 14-0 in the first 5 minutes. their offense looked terrible almost all game. what a disheartening performance....credit to JMU...

North Texas- up 31-7 midway through the 2nd quarter, and up 21 let the back door get put on them by ACU...missed FGs and no resistance on D was the difference...

The good-

Ay Ziggy Zoomba...BG +24 was looooot...won outright

Bama- solid performance and never really threatened to lose the cover

Memphis- wow, what a comback in that one. 

Baylor- wow, snatched them live, never thought we would see THAT comeback...what a performance. likely to fade them next week vs TTU

WVU- loot...awesome gameplan, and their players are bought in...3x in a row winning SU as underdogs. play on the eeers. 

Purdue- on fire from the start...solid gameplan, and really a no sweat winner

Air Force- blasting everything in their way. no sweat over winner that hit with 8 mins. to go in the 3rd....woah.

Oklahoma- man that offense is clicking...iowa state was just overwhelmed and didnt have the horses to keep up. 

EMU, NIU, New Mexico- three big road dogs that all just kept taking punches and punched back...hung in there really well and all covered with a chance to win their perspective games outright. real solid performances by each of these three road dogs. 

SUNJ- -45, runs the cover play with 8 seconds to go, wins 52-3...

@steponaduck

 Well Done!  Duck

Week 6:

Kentucky +17 -120

Navy -4.5

Week 6:

Kentucky +17 -120

Navy -4.5

San Jose State +9

Texas State -1.5 +107

@steponaduck

 Where did you find these?  Lower then the openers at 5dimes.  Well played, as alwasy...

wow...I hear u AY ZIGGY ZOOMBA!

I haven't heard that in awhile 

@TBLbolts

 Heritage and bookmaker have lines up now. 

Week 6:

Thurs: Sam Hou State +18.5 -113

Friday: Oklahoma State +14 -130

Saturday:

Kentucky +17 -120

Navy -4.5

San Jose State +9

Texas State -1.5 +107

Heritage lets you buy and sell points as you want and I did that with OK state. The juice paid was minimal but I’ll happily take a little bit more juice to get +14 in this “circle the wagons” type spot for them. Home dog, Friday night. K-state rolling pretty well, but we did see what happened to them the last time they left home. Pokes. Would play +11 also but with heritage allowing such a proposition as buying 3 points with so little to pay, I did that. 

@steponaduck

 ALL over it, thank you.  Duck!

Futures Portfolio Update

RSW:
* western Michigan under 4.5 -200
2-3 three td dogs this week, 2-4 loading
*Central Michigan under 5.5 -120
3-2 coin flip at buffalo this week
*North Texas under 6.5 -120.
2-2 tough schedule coming up
*East Carolina under 5.5 -150
*East Carolina under 6.5 -190. BIG
1-4 and with games against UTSA, Tulane and SMU no way on planet earth they win 6 or 7 games this year...
*South Alabama under 8-130.
2-3 were really never in the JMU game and the last two weeks have been puzzling in my opinion. hard to think they win out and lose this play for me
*MTSU under 6.5 +100
1-4 hosting jax state this week. @ liberty later in conf play will be a loss. hard to see them winning 7 games
*San Jose St under 5.5 +120
1-4 off a bye, +9 vs boise. think they could cover, hard to see them winning. wins are on the schedule soon enough, and jose is a play on team down the stretch IMO
*Minnesota under 7.5 -160
3-2  and still have michigan, ohio state and wisconsin on the slate. really feeling good here about this position
*UTEP over 5.5 -115 BIG
1-5 this is toast. 0-3 in winnable games and clearly a team without an identity. awful home performances the last two weeks. 
*Indiana under 3.5 +140
2-3 really only 2 reasonable chances for a W the rest of the season. lossed will pile up
*Vanderbilt over 3.5 -150
2-3  likely toast after they lost SU to UNLV
*Cal over 4.5 -152
3-2 really like the fight of this team. still have stanford on the schedule but wins might be hard to come by later on in the conference slate. need to steal one
*BYU under 5.5 +113
4-1, conference play starts to heat up soon enough.

The good:
WMU under
ECU under
MTSU under
SJSU under
Minnesota under
North Texas under

South Alabama under

The bad:
UTEP over
Vandy over

To Be Determined...
CMU
Cal
BYU
Indiana

1u UTEP 22-1 DONATION LIKELY UNLESS THEY RUN THE TABLE
1u UTSA +360 to win AAC NEED THE OFFENSE TO START GETTING IT TOGETHER. 
1u FAU +950 to win AAC MAYBE THE CONFERENCE WINS START TO PILE UP, NOT GIVING UP ON THIS YET
1u EMU +790 to win MAC NEEDED A W SATURDAY, DIDNT GET IT. 
1u San Diego state +650 to win MWC NO CHANCE NOW WITH LOSSES TO BOISE AND WORLDS FINEST AF
**1.75u Washington +400 win P12 LIKE MY POSITION HERE. GREAT TEAM, NEXT WEEK OREGON SHOW DOWN WILL BE EPIC

longshots to win their respective conference title

.33u navy 45/1  COULDNT STOP USF...NEEDED THE MEMPHIS GAME, DIDNT GET IT

.125u cal 80/1  NOT COMPETITIVE AGAINST UW, WILL NEED TO UPSET ORGEON STATE AND UTAH TO HAVE TRACTION HERE

.416u NIU 22/1 + .33u 29/1   DANG DANG DANG. LOST BY 2 AGAINST TOLEDO OR WOULD HAVE BEEN IN THE DRIVERS SEAT

.125u Texas State 80/1 LEADING THE CONFERENCE AND ARE NOW 6/1. LOVE THIS POSITION HERE. 

Week 6:

Thurs: Sam Hou State +18.5 -113

Friday: Oklahoma State +14 -130

Saturday:

Kentucky +17 -120

Navy -4.5

San Jose State +9

Texas State -1.5 +107

Wash State ML +142

Talk to me about LSU @ Mizzou, if you have the time.

I can't remember the last time the Tigers were relevant. I like their QB a lot, he's a tough sob and have a tremendous WR. Seeing some guys in the lsu secondary banged up.

Thanks in advance 

Always respect your knowledge Duck and impressive so far...

Think Tucky will be game in Athens and might be at that game and then also feel like UDUB takes out Quack Attack no question..

No plays even close yet to making a wager and have been getting away from that past year or so, which I shouldn't but those are the early one's I am looking at and talk to me about Navy too....Love me some Mids my man and follow them closely...

Good luck Duck.  

Week 6:

Thurs: Sam Hou State +18.5 -113

Friday: Oklahoma State +14 -130

Saturday:

Kentucky +17 -120

Navy -4.5

Navy -6

San Jose State +9

Texas State -1.5 +107

Wash State ML +142

Bowling Green +12.5

My current FCS leans using projections at massey ratings:

(Fri) Cornell +21
Holy Cross -28
Columbia -20
Yale -1.5
North Dakota -23.5
UC Davis -1.5
Idaho -27
Layayette +10.5
Furman -31
Howard +35
Western Carolina +5.5

After further review, it's LSU or nothing imo. People are calling for Brian Kelly to be fired. Buy low spot here imo.

https://www.si.com/college/olemiss/football/lsu-tigers-fans-demand-firing-coach-brian-kelly-after-ole-miss-rebels-loss

I'm also thinking about betting Georgia on a discount now that the spread is at 14 last I saw.

Great work and good luck 

@undermysac

 Yeah I agree my friend. Mizzou has played well in the two games I’ve been tuned into them and being at home…but LSU is in an absolute nightmare situation if they lose. 

at -6 or 6.5 seems the books are asking for LSU money. But it might be the right call. 

A loss here will almost essentially send them to the capital one bowl

Week 6: **UPDATED**

Thurs: Sam Hou State +18.5 -113
Friday: Oklahoma State +14 -130

Saturday:

Kentucky +17 -120
Navy -4.5
Navy -6
San Jose State +9
Texas State -1.5 +107
Wash State ML +142. 2u
Bowling Green +12.5
Kansas -2
Iowa -2
Georgia Tech +21.5 -114
California +9.5

Nice start to season  san Jose st +9.5  I have Bowling Green over 3.5 wins for team wins.  One of my big total team wagers.  Really like Kansas-3 .. Navy and Kentucky on the radar  I'm excited 

Good luck duck 

@biggiantkiller

 thanks my good sir. excited for this weekend also. hope you sweep your slate. 

@totter

 good luck this weekend mate