Week 6: **Updated Card**
Thurs: Sam Hou State +18.5 -113
Friday: Oklahoma State +14 -130
Saturday:
Kentucky +17 -120
Navy -4.5
Navy -6
San Jose State +9
Texas State -1.5 +107
Wash State ML +142. 2u
Bowling Green +12.5
Kansas -2
Iowa -2
Georgia Tech +21.5 -114
California +9.5
Texas Tech +1
2 Team Parlay 1u to win 1.85u
1. Wyoming +7.5
2. CMU ML
Week 6: **Updated Card**
Thurs: Sam Hou State +18.5 -113
Friday: Oklahoma State +14 -130
Saturday:
Kentucky +17 -120
Navy -4.5
Navy -6
San Jose State +9
Texas State -1.5 +107
Wash State ML +142. 2u
Bowling Green +12.5
Kansas -2
Iowa -2
Georgia Tech +21.5 -114
California +9.5
Texas Tech +1
Tulsa + FAU over 54.5
Kent State +26.5
2 Team Parlay 1u to win 1.85u
1. Wyoming +7.5
2. CMU ML
cheers mate. heres to a profitable weekend for us!!
My thoughts:
Thurs: Sam Hou State +18.5 -113
- we all thought SHSU couldnt move the football, and couldnt sustain drives on offense, and on national TV they proved us wrong against Jax State, leading me to believe a few things. 1) maybe their offensive struggles were due to being OVERMATCHED by the first three foes they faced in AF, BYU and Houston...all three much better competition than any foe they face in conference play. 2) maybe they found something during their bye week, and they have a few packages they like. they blew the game against Jax, but Liberty, similar to Jax, is not overwhelming on defense. Furthermore, the market is seeing a 4-0 team playing an 0-4 team, but the qualify of those teams is astonishingly different. Lib played close games vs NMSU and BG where they won the turnover battle 8-2 combined. They have since blasted buffalo and FIU, garbage competition. I think Sam Hou can provide a stiff test to this Liberty offense, and extend the chains, control the clock on offense to get the cover here. I dont see this being a blowout like FIU or Buffalo was, although it could be I guess...I would just bet the game is more competitive, the low total also suggest that. one last factor, Liberty plays again in 5 days after this game. How much do they want to empty the gas tank having a game 5 days later...might have something to save for that next matchup instead...run clock and get outta here with a 27-14 type score.
Friday: Oklahoma State +14 -130
-Kinda feel like OK STate had a "circle the wagons" meeting over their bye week, and they are now at home on a Friday night in a game where KSU embarrassed them last year. this seems like the spot to give a max effort to save your season. KSU Struggled on the road last time out, losing SU to missouri. I just think its alot to ask for a team go to on the road, in conference play, and win by more than two scores when the team they are playing is off a bye and might be a little desperate. KSU is the better team for sure, but this spot is one where OK ST has to play better than we have seen before, of the season might be over and Gundy might have to sell his house and find another gig. 34-24
I love that most are on purdue, mate...seems logical to me. I was on purdue last week, and they played really well against a gassed Illinois team that is 0-5 ATS and barely beat toledo and FAU at home, and has been blown out against all 3 Power Five teams they have played this season.
@ KU, Home Penn State, @ Purdue, all blowouts. but that still doesnt indicate to me what purdue can or cannot do well.
I think this game comes down to who can run the football, and who turns the ball over. Can Iowa establish the run and consistently operate our of 2nd/3rd and manageable. Will purdue continue to turn the ball over as they have 8 times in the last 3 games. I would expect (with the urgency and hightened sense of importance on conference games and with a BU QB) Watch for the Iowa defense to play their absolute best football game of the season. I would play Iowa here now that the odds have dwindled.
@steponaduck
Thanks for your take.
My take on Iowa is that theres not much of a down grade with McNamara out as he was not 100% and played like it. Yes Iowa's offense has been putrid. However Iowas backup QB, Deacon Hill, is a big fella and I expect Iowa to pound rock vs Purdue's defense. Deacon Hill doesn't have alot of mobility, but he moves better than McNamara did at only 75-80%. He has an above average arm. Also Iowa's Kaleb Johnson (RB1) practiced today, so maybe he plays. Iowa prevails
@steponaduck
i would put Liberty's offense as good or better than any of the 3 that beat SH, and their defense is not bad, in that jax st game, Jax st took the opening drive right down the field and scored, yes SH found ways to get a long pass play for a td, but they were unable to sustain drives in the 2nd half only score SH had was after a turnover and they had a 20 yd drive, Liberty can score, i just do not think SH will be able to stop them, they will need Liberty to shoot theirself maybe, and yes that happens, but i usually do not bet hoping that i get 2-3 turnovers to give me short field , the betting so far has went back and forth, i really like Liberty 1st half -10 ..gl
***WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 3RD PLAY***
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE -3.5
So I was diving into this matchup, and there are a few things that stand out to me about these teams. Middle Tenn is 1-4 SU and ATS and are favored over Jax State who is 4-1 SU ATS. Why would this be? This alone should be concerning, but a few points to make:
MTSU was even with CSU through 50 minutes, outgained the Rams, out first downed them, but gave up a fumble return TD late and was stopped on downs twice at the CSU 30 yard line going in to score. Against WKU MTSU passed the ball fairly well, was only outgained by 70 yards and the first downs and TOP were close. again, they lost the turnover battle 3-1. On MTSU first play of the game they went 75 yards for an explosive TD pass that was called back due to offsetting penalties, and didnt count. They blasted Murray State at home (ok, somewhat struggled with them for a half) and competed well at missouri. This team is 1-4 on the season and need the wins to pile up fast in order to make a bowl game. The last two seasons they have started ice cold (2-4) and have rallied to make a bowl game, so this type of scenario is not uncharted for the blue raiders.
Jax State on the other hand is seemingly red hot at 4-1 SU and ATS, and off a thrilling victory at SHSU, but diving in further, they really had no business winning, covering, or even being in that game late. SHSU dominated the stats, TOP, and had a 99% win expectancy with 1 minute to go in the game. SHSU mis managed the clock and threw an incomplete pass on 2nd down at the goal line before punching it in on 4th down, but left 1 minute on the clock instead of about 17 seconds...this time left allowed jax (to their credit) to drive down the field, down 8, get the TD, tie it on the 2 pt try, and win in OT, miraculously.
Jax State also Smashed EMU in a non conference bout that EMU seemingly was disinterested in playing, struggled MIGHTILY with UTEP (we have seen what they are up to) and lost on the road at coastal carolina (who has NO DUDES other than Grayson McCall). J state was down 30-9 on the road at one point in that game.
The sam houston game was telling, as a team who had 408 yards, 13 points, and 24 first downs IN THREE GAMES thusfar, was able to move the ball and gain explosive plays at will through the air with a QB who had completed 8 passes all season before that game. SHSU was also able to lean on the jax d line, who was gassed and wearing down. If you go back and watch, there was no resistance provided by Jax State seemingly all night, until they forced some Turnovers while SHSU was driving.
I went back and checked relevent stats regarding MTSU and how they perform AFTER the "100 miles of hate" rivalry (big game for them, you would think let down spot afterwords when getting blasted by their rival), but... it has been anything but that, going 4-0 SU ATS the last 5 years (2019 they ended the season at WKU so I omitted that game, as they didnt play again until the following year).
2018: @ UTEP -13 W 48-32
2020: @ FIU +6 W 31-28
2021: FIU at home -10 W 50-10
2022: @ UTEP -2 W 24-13
their coaching staff is long term, so it tells me their prep after WKU is solid, and this seems to be a "buy low, sell high" spot on each of these teams, and you are seemingly getting a telling line with the vegas oddsman making MTSU the fave, despite the records and W/L columns.
I was researching this game trying to find a reason to back J-State as a dog here but with them still having the FCS allotment of scholarships and depth being an issue, this could be the point in the season where they start to wear down, looks like maybe the books have seen enough to think that could happen this week.
Right or wrong, Im playing the Blue Raiders to get a much needed win in a DESPERATE spot here.
35-28 Raiders.
Duck, you have made a very strong case on MTSU for sure....the midseason turnaround got me!
Its something that I know athletes find comfort in, which is to no get flustered and just know that if they knuckle down, the wins will start to flow and that is what I see here too with midseason upon us and their athletes turning up the crank
You shut out a team, that is still impressive by JKST BUT, last week exposed some cracks and MTSU has a good QB..... the motivation is definitely with MTSU, and back to back roadies for JKST favor the fave at home for sure
@steponaduck
seen that game a little diff, Jax st had turnovers, not like them they had 3 in that game and all helped sh score, jax st drove right down the field and went up 7-0, right there it looked like jax st was going to do that all game SH there td's were break away plays, one long pass, but in 2nd half they did nothing, only score they got in 2nd half was a short field turnover where they were on jax st 20 yd line, so diff ways to look at that game, a lot of teams are driving the last drive to win games this year, which means a lot of teams who have a 89% chance to win with under 2 mins are not winning
good luck mate. remember its not me vs. you...we are on the same team mate.
Established in 1995,
same to you mate. Hope you are well. did NOT see anything in my PMs, please resend. 
Hot Forum Topics
