NCAA FB WK 6: 44-32-2 YTD

9-5 last week. Good, solid bankroll building week. 

week 6 coming up. 

Thanks for all your awesome picks yesterday! Appreciate all the hard work and documentation. 

No plays yet

Liens:

UTEP pk

penn st +3.5/ML

new Mexico State +34

Kent state -5

SMU + Navy over 55.5

Akron +15

Tulane +6

Coastal Carolina + ark state over 69.5

Stanford + Arizona state under 52.5

WKU/UTSA over 69

Michigan -3

Air Force -3

ECU +9.5

Week 6:

New Mexico State +35 -116

good luck duck,,Mich  and  UTEP  are first two I jumped on 

@steponaduck

Good job!   Like Michigan and Air Force.  Not on your leans, but  any thoughts on Iowa/Penn State under 43?

Week 6: * Updated Card*

New Mexico State +35 -116
UTEP ML +109

Going back to the well with UTEP. southern miss is not good. Their offense is garbage. UTEP is playing to move to 5-1, one step closer to bowl eligibility. 

I like what I see from UTEP. Their play making WR group makes plays when they need it most, and their running game added an element by using the running QB last week in key situations. 

Nice work Duck. I’m an alum of NMSU. I usually fade them year and year but they have been solid lately and a covering machine last few weeks. Loving them plus the points against Nevada. Is this your top play?

Week 6: * Updated Card*

New Mexico State +35 -116
UTEP ML +109
UGA -14 -122

@cocabeast

 Love them again this week. They are improving every week. Like…clear improvement in all three phases…

rememver, this team was blown out by UTEP…week 2 they cover a boatload at San Diego state. Then cover vs rival New Mexico. Then home for a win vs meac bottom feeder so car state. Bad performance against Hawaii (still covered the early line of 20.5!!)

easy cover last week  could be an easy cover this week, as how much does Nevada want to run it up with conference foe Hawaii and then Fresno on deck  

could easily see this being 38-16 deep into the 4th quarter…with the number not in play  

@LonghornHoosier

 Guy…logic would concede that this seems like an under game…but I think penn state can hold up in the trenches enough to where Iowa can be passed on, and I would not be shocked at all if this was 17-14 at half, 23-20 in the 4th. Could also be 7-3 at half, but Iowa also has shown offensive prowess (only after forcing a barrage of turnovers), and they are forcing turnovers leading to quick scores each week…gun to my head…I would actually play the over…

Duck, what do you think about LSU +3.5? I see a letdown from Kentucky in this spot. 

@JordanKing23

 I think the team who is likely to be let down is LSU, after blowing the game against Auburn where they were up in the fourth quarter and got out scored 14 to 0, embarrassing at home to do that. Now they are 3-2 on the season, they are not beating Alabama, ole miss or maybe Arkansas. What are they playing for at this point?

I think the time to fade kentucky will be next week

Absolutely agree. Losing by 27 to UTEP in week 0, is NMSU’s worse loss and have only improved every week since week 0. 

Duck, what do you think about Bama -17 at A&M? I don’t see the aggies scoring more than 13-16, can their defense keep Bama from scoring less than 30-35? 

@brew82

 So…a&m was #5 in the polls two weeks ago. Now they are unranked. 

what’s their mindset going to be in the 2nd quarter when it’s 14-0 and they have 4 total yards in the contest? Are they able to but up and get the job done? With their current QB situation, I doubt it. 

I could logically see Alabama scoring 35-41ish… no way a&m gets to 24 unless I am missing something 

Dang NMSU is already down to 32. How low would you take it?

Sorry for the double post

Week 6: * Updated Card*

New Mexico State +35 -116
UTEP ML +109
UGA -14 -122
Akron +15

@moosevuitton

 I would play it for less, down to 31.5

nice week duck yeah any arky st total at 80 or less is an auto bet right now for the over 

Been looking at the game all day.  First i thought over for sure. Then I saw what happened to Ark st when they played a good defensive team in Washington.  Been going back and forth on coastal tt over( which isnt up yet on my site but assume its 43,44ish), or even the coastal line at -19.  With the avg yards per rushing attempt being so high for coastal and this ark st defense being so bad.... Thinking even if they go up big and start running the ball they will still score 3 touchdowns  in the second half in the process of attemptng to run out the clock.. Just wondering if arky st can put up the points to get this thing into the 70s...

based on dvoa and some other things, i do acknowledge that washington defense is much better than coastal.. but how much better?