Write up:
UAB -1 Max play
To start, this line has been all over the place. I have seen UAB -3 and I have seen ULL -1.5, and every number in between. I’m not sure why. When I look at the numbers, Louisiana Lafayette did exactly what I thought they Would do last game, and I think that the books are still respecting them because of their win against Iowa State. In their last three games they have a loss, and two close come from behind win against Georgia State and Georgia Southern.
ULL Continues to struggle on third down defense, giving up 66% third-down conversions. they have struggled getting teams off the field which could spell trouble with an efficient UAB offense, which could make hay running the ball. While UAB has started slow the last two weeks, local media reports convey that they are extremely motivated and are taking this group of five power clash seriously, and to preserve their long home win streak at legion field.
ULL Has shown an inability to obtain “chunk place”, and their explosiveness the last 3 weeks has been lacking. My count has 10 explosive plays total the last 3 weeks. UAB in that same stretch has given up 6 total explosive plays in their last 3 games. Why is this important?
ULL in games they are not explosive in? Close win vs GA Southern. Come from behind win in OT vs Ga State (We all saw on national television how porous that defense is), and a loss at home vs CCU.
UAB defense has been solid all year. They wore down vs Miami (extremely explosive team) but with 5 mins left in the 3Q the score was 17-14.
From what I have seen on the field, UAB has better QB play (Johnston or Lucero), better RB play, better outside threats, etc. ULL is a good team, but the level of respect they are getting, compared to what they have actually done this year is astonishing. What would this line be if ULL was 1-3 (as they should be)?
ULL has a special teams advantage in this matchup, but If UAB moves the ball and sustains drives, in the event they need to punt, they should not give up punt returns, and they have done well this year covering kick offs.
UAB has outstanding coaching, and Bill Clark will have his guys ready to roll. I think the UAB D-line will cause havoc on the ULL run game and short pass game, and the UAB DBs can cover these ULL receivers in my opinion.
I like the UAB pick! The relatively close game against UTSA surprised me a bit, but UTSA also played BYU close. I think you are on the right side of this matchup. LaLa has been an enigma this season with the win over Iowa State, then the close games and last weeks loss. GL on this and your other picks! 
Write up: Rice -1
MTSU, is all finesse. They struggle to run the ball outside of QB making plays with his legs and they have had to play from behind consistently this year, a position they have done well in. (Backdoor cover vs UTSA, BD cover vs Wky, Cover vs FIU, poor showing vs UNT) with slower paced physical teams such as army and Wky, their offense has struggled.
Rice will come at you. Smash mouth, “Stanford of the south” style of play. Multiple tight ends, power backs, etc.
How jacked is MTSU to play this game? Not nearly as excited as Rice, IMO. This is the first game of the season for the owls and with only 6 game’s on the slate, I expect a full effort from them here.
With few winnable games left on the schedule for MTST, where will their mindset be here? What are they playing for? Rice on the other hand is opening their season and will legitimately have a chance to win every game they play this year.
We don’t have much to go on for Rice, other than local reports on practice, and twitter reports from “The Roost”, which convey a focused and motivated rice squad. They have had a lot of young guys step up in practice and look to continue displaying successful pass defense as they did last year vs some of CUSA best passing quarterbacks.
I faded MTSU last week and north Texas did not disappoint. MTSU defense gave up 800 yards vs UNT. Dreadful. Obviously our UNT +7 and UNT TT over 33 cashed with ease. I have no issue fading middle Tennessee again vs a physical rice squad who should be sound on defense and control the line of scrimmage. It will take one heck of an effort by Alex O’Hara to win this game. I’ll bet, as we have seen so many times this year already. That it won’t.
UTEP +15. I love this UTEP team and have a good read on them. Charlotte played will vs UNT (who hasn’t) but outside of that, struggled in the 2H vs lowly FAU, and had one TD drive at app state in the opener (2 FG and a KO return TD).
UTEP has over impressed me on defense this year. They did really well controlling the speed of LT on the road (J. Henderson and Smoke Harris) You surely remember them being on my card that week. they also beat ULM as a 12 point dog (also on my card). They have given up 14, 13, 21 and 6 points this year outside of the game against Texas (obviously outclassed, we were on Texas -41 in week 3). And their defense comes up big when it matters. ULM was 0-11 on 3rd down and LT was 7/18...18 third down attempts means that UTEP is playing solid in the early downs, giving them chances to get off the field. Against app and FAU, Charlotte was 4/14 and 6/16 on 3rd down respectively, but 4 of those conversions were by way of defensive penalties. (UNT they were 8/16).
Their head coach Dimmel is changing the culture at UTEP and they are starting to believe they can compete and win. I love their offensive approach of smash mouth running, QB easy read throws and they are also not shy of the deep shot, where Charlotte can be exposed.
I like the game management approach and I believe with the limited possession and solid defensive play of UTEP, this game has a low Percentage chance to become a blow out. I don’t see what Charlotte has done to warrant being a 15 point fave, and I don’t see why UTEP cannot compete in this game into the late stages. The travel is a concern, along with a longer layoff than normal, which both teams are dealing with.
I’ll have to pay to see Charlotte win by 3 scores.
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