Futures Portfolio:
2024 NCAA FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON WINS PLAYS
Clemson under 9.5 -170 0-1
UCLA under 5.5 -110 1-0
Kansas State under 9.5 -135 1-0
San Diego St under 5.5 -120 1-0
Coastal Carolina under 6.5 -110 1-0
James Madison under 8.5 -164 1-0
Arkansas under 5.5 -200 1-0
Ohio U under 6.5 -104 0-1
New Mexico State under 4.5 -128 1-0
North Carolina under 7.5 -115 1-0
Ball State under 4.5 -154 0-0
Georgia State under 4.5 +100 0-1
Old Dominion under 5 -160 0-1
Kennesaw State under 2.5 -110 0-1
Duke under 5.5 -120 1-0
Temple under 2.5 -112 0-1
CMU under 6 -125 1-0
NC STATE to win ACC +650 .33u
NORTH TEXAS to win AAC +2200 .22u
FIU to win C-USA +10000 .1u
LA TECH to win C-USA +4500 .22u
MARSHALL to win SBC +1800 .22u
AF to win MWC +1400 .33u
WMU to win the MAC +880 .33u
ECU to win AAC +1600 .33u
TEXAS STATE to win ACC +500 .73u
COLORADO STATE to win MWC +1600 .33u
OK State to win B12 +700 .33u
BG to win the MAC +800 .33u
Lottos:
140/1 Texas state + Boise State + WMU all conference winners
672/1 ECU + Texas State + NC State all conference winners
71/1 Bowling Green + Texas State + Liberty all conference winners
98/1 Texas state + Boise St+ South Florida all conference winners
1016/1 ECU + Texas State + Iowa State all conference winners
really would have loved a UCLA loss from the futures perspective, along with NMSU who nearly lost to SEMO (would have been great for the RSW under). Coastal Carolina game was not really a determining factor on the RSW, but would have liked a loss to start there. UNC- needed a loss, shocked that Minnesota didnt take control there. The rest kinda played out as expected. Will report on these weekly.
FBS vsFCS games on my radar this week subject to line postings:
Friday: Indiana -41
Saturday:
Fresno State -16
Alcorn State +44.5
William & Mary +24
FAMU +42.5
Idaho/WYoming under 51.5
Colorado State -26.5
Kent State -19.5
Tennessee Tech +58.5
SFA/North Texas over 63.5
FCS vs FCS
Eastern Washington -28 vs Drake
Montana State -26 vs Maine
Murray State -11 vs Butler
Youngstown State -38 vs. Valpo
Lamar -17 vs Mississippi valley state
St. Thomas +26 vs Northern Iowa
None of these are plays at the moment, just games I am looking at and waiting for line postings.
Couple notes on BYU: they scored twice in the 1st quarter against the Salukis but it took three 4th down conversions to do it, and they were in third down 15 times in the game, converting 7 of them. Took another 4th down conversion on their third TD in the 3rd quarter after a miracle long pass where the BYU receiver was in triple coverage and somehow came down with it. BYU played well enough to cover against Southern Illinois, but their dual thread qb gave them problems and if not for the 4th down conversions (either not getting them or settling for FGs) this game would have been a lot closer, going to be a much tougher task this go around I would suspect.
@Laroja
San Jose State is a dead over team for me this year. Could not stop Sac. State until the late stages of the game (See my write up on action network for that one). I was on Jose -3 and doubled down when they were +305 live down 14-0...Jose took control in the second half and the final ended up being 42-24, but there could have been many more points. Sac state was stopped on downs at the 1 inch line, they also missed a FG, and also threw a pick at the SJSU 7 yard line. So while San Jose State did win and cover with relative ease, the turnovers prohibited this one from being even more high scoring. Sac rushed 41 times for 177 and while Navy Ken knows how to stop the option, San Jose state was up against a weaker and undersized Sac State and really did not get penetration or control the line of scrimmage until the later stages of the third.
When Navy (SJSU Coach Ken Niamotulolo's old team, as everyone knows) would play AF/Army in the C-o-C games, there was much pomp and circumstance surrounding it, lots of pressure, and both sides would play keep away (service acadamy game unders 77% over 10 years) but SJSU is running the spread and shred this year, so no keep away to be found. I am concerned about AF running so poorly against Merrimack, so definately something to watch here, but I doubt AF will shut down the San Jose offense and whoever wins this will need to be at the 28 mark or so, so 28-21 or 28-24 seems reasonable in what should be quite a competitive game.
I saw AF was stopped on downs in the redzone against Merrimack, missed Two FG's, and was in third down alot, so there is certainly cause for concern on the AF side. With the turnover of offensive personnel from last year to this year, they might have just needed a game to figure things out and really get some game reps, of which they can correct somethings for this week. Or not, and they are just really bad.
Merrimack was 17/30 passing but for only 103 yards, that is shockingly low, not nearly the same passing attack that AF will see from San Jose State, but they were able to run it somewhat effectively on the AF defensive front 7. Really just expect airforce might have been holding back a bit in a game that they completely controlled vs. Merrimack (MU scored on the last play of the game to make the final 21-6).
Really like northern illinois catching 30. going to wait it out and see how high that one goes, can see all the ND homers sweeping in and grabbing that one less than 35, and maybe it escalates upward. Massive sandwich spot for ND and they have to be banged up after that physical game at A&M.
Rival Purdue on deck on the road...perfect exhale spot for the Irish here. One last thing. NIU roster loaded with Chicago kids who likely didnt even get the senior camp invites from beloved notre dame, and feel like they have a chip on their shoulder now getting a chance to play at the Cathedral of college football. You think those kids dont want that? Also, I am certain they started their ND prep long before yesterday, while ND would have been prepping for A&M all summer. Can see the huskies going in that and throwing a big punch early...NIU will be on my card, just wanting to see how high this one gets.
Week 1: recap Ncaa fb week 0/1 - Page 7 - College Football | Covers\
Hawaii +17 (bet365) RIGHT SIDE THE ENTIRE GAME, TOTALLY PREPARED AND SHOULD HAVE WON THE GAME ON THE FIELDHawaii + 14.5 (everywhere) SAME AS ABOVE, JUST DOUBLED DOWN FOR MORE
UConn +22.5 (bet365) BRUTAL, WAS JUST NEVER IN IT. STARTING QB COULDNT MOVE IT, AND THEIR D WAS PUT IN HORRIFIC SITUATIONS WITH SHORT FIELDS AND MD CASHED IN. TOUGH TO WATCH THIS UCONN TEAMNorth Texas +7.5-117 (FD) NEVER IN DOUBT, AFTER THE 3RD QUARTER LED THE ENTIRE 2H AND PULLED AWAY LATE. NEW QB SEEMED REALLY EFFICIENT AND THE OFFENSE IS ELECTRIC ONCE AGAIN. COULD BE A PROBLEM FOR TEAMS IN THE AMERICANUTEP + Nebraska over 48.5 (FD) ARE YOU KIDDING ME. 30-7 AT HALF AND 37-7 WITH 3 MINUTES LEFT IN THE 3RD QUARTER. BRUTAL. NU GETS DOWN TO THE 1 YARD LINE AND CANNOT PUNCH IT IN, SETTLES FOR A FG. THEN THEY GET DOWN THERE AGAIN AND WITH THE BU QB ON 4TH AND 10 AT THE 28 THEY DONT KICK THE FG?? WHAT IN THE WORLD ARE WE DOING? OF COURSE THEY DONT GET IT. JUST SO DISGUSTING HOW THAT ONE PLAYED OUT. Vanderbilt + VT under 55.5 (bet365) RIGHT SIDE THE ENTIRE GAME, AND WITH 8 POINTS OF LINE MOVEMENT TO BOOT. JUST UNLUCKY THAT BOTH TEAMS WERE ON THE SAME NUMBER AS IT WENT TO OT AND WE LOST THIS ONE. VANDY CAME TO PLAY, NO QUESTION ABOUT THAT. USC + LSU under 66.5 (bet365) REALLY EASY TO SEE THIS ONE PLAY OUT, TEAMS FEELING EACHOTHER OUT EARLY AND JUST NEVER SAW THE EXPLOSION OF OFFENSIVE OUTPUT THAT MANY PEOPLE EXPECTED HERE. charlotte +10.5 -114 (bookmaker) LOOKED PROMISING EARLY BUT JMU TURNED THE TABLES WITH THE LAST DRIVE OF THE 1H AND FIRST DRIVE OF THE 2H, SCORING TWO TDS IN ONE MINUTE OF GAME TIME, TO BLOW IT OPEN. CHARLOTTE WAS ONLY OUTGAINED BY 84 YARDS AND LED THE FIRST DOWNS AND TOP, AND CHARLOTTE WAS POISED TO TAKE A LEAD INTO HALF, BEFORE AN INT SET JMU UP. SUPER DEFLATING FOR SURE.
Umass + EMU over 48.5 -112 (heritage) SAME STORY AS LAST YEAR, UMASS TONS OF YARDS AND NO POINTS. TWO MISSED FGS AND TWO SOD INSIDE OPPONENT TERRITORY DID THIS ONE INUTSA -20.5 -115 (heritage) .5u UP 21-3 EARLY 2Q AND JUST TOOK THE FOOT OFF THE GAS PEDAL. SHOCKING TO SEE AS LAST YEARS TEAM WOULD HAVE CRUISED TO A 48-13 VICTORY, NOT THIS YEARS UTSA SQUAD. Jacksonville State -3.5 -108 (heritage) .5u YIKES. NO RESISTANCE ON DEFENSE WHATSOEVER FOR JAX STATE. IT WAS HARD TO WATCH THIS ONE. Syracuse -13.5 -115 (heritage) .5u
Oklahoma -41.5 -120
Elon +24.5
Georgia State +22
central Arkansas + Arkansas state over 54.5Howard + Rutgers over 47.5
Fresno state +21.5georgia -13.5
ETSU +33
portland state +28
WILL CONTINUE THIS RECAP LATER ON. SHORT ON TIME RIGHT NOW
That's great insight there, I'll need to look more into it but it makes sense completely. Although I do remember some people liking Sac State last week against SJSU; the SJSU TT could also be worth a look here.
Thanks.
Akron can play defense yes, and Rutgers can run. I like the UNDER more now. Backup for Akron is a runner and can throw ok. Rutgers has a good secondary and overall now, this year, their defense is expected to finish better than last year.
Backup for Akron was scouted and recruited to go to Rutgers (NJ high school player) but went to VTECH to hold a clipboard. That gets old and so I bet Rutgers defense will be keyed up on his tendencies
Akron scores Under 10 or no more than / Rutgers scores 27-31 was my thinking and maybe a defensive score. Ohio State got 2 scores by their defense and seemed a little vanilla in their play calls. Rutgers I expect to be in full motivation with 2 weeks off and a date with VTECH on the 21st for their first roadie. Schiano will want them ready and will demand for a good mindset going into a tough 3rd game.
GL on your pick
You got me looking at the Backup who I assumed was the beanpole throwing off the O-line's helmet for a Buckeye LB to scoop out of the air for a pick6 .....so I am thinking the same as you, buyback if I get +23.5 myself 
and lean a little more on the UNDER.
This backup may try to impress, but all that I am reading out of Rutgers is how impressive the secondary has been all camp and expected this season....so contain the run....maybe give up a few FGs .... ESPN SP+ has Rutgers defense at #6 higher than Ohio St. at #25 << shocker for me so how about an inspired Akron game on defense holding the Rutgers offense to under 30 and we get Under 11 for Akron and the UNDER 41.5 Total cover?
Thanks for your thoughts...appreciate it
Just came back in to say, I read ESPN SP+ wrong...Buckeyes were #2 and Rutgers #21....not sure if that is an update, but the SP+ data I copied a week ago had the same so I assume I was wrong
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