Let's get this season started already!! Wishing all of you a successful and profitable college betting season and remember, we aren't here to beat each other ... we're here to beat the books.
With that said, first play of the season;
Mississippi v Vanderbilt UNDER 53 -105 to win 2 units
More later if I isolate any qualifying plays.
OK Guys ... I just finished going over the rest of the card and have finalized it by simply adding a side selection to go with the under selection posted above. The card is now final.
I have completed my handicapping for tonight's card and have only isolated 2 bets involving the same game. I have indeed locked in Mississippi at -3 –105 for 2 units in addition to the under play in this game as previously posted. (I had a slight lean on the North Carolina over but decided to pass as I didn’t get the value vs my own line).
First and foremost, Ole Miss comes into this game with triple revenge and should be able to get the job done against a Vanderbilt team that lost a lot of key starters from last year’s squad. Most notably is in my view going to be the change in quarterback/RB positions for Vanderbilt. Gone are the QB/RB combo of Rodgers and Stacy (26 combined touchdowns). In at QB is Wyoming transfer Austyn Carta-Samuels who threw for just over 4400 yards and 25 TD’s at Wyoming. Still slightly less (average) than departing QB Rodgers. It will be interesting to see how his season opener in a huge conference game goes. As I will touch on below, I think Vanderbilt stays conservative and will try to grind out a win and in the process try to slow down Ole Miss' spread offense.
As for the total, the under has prevailed in 6 of the last 7 head to head meetings between these two teams. Last year’s meeting hit 53 points and would have pushed with tonight’s line but went over the posted total of 50.5 for that game. In fact, tonight’s total of 53 is the highest total set in the last 10 meetings/seasons between these two teams. The average score over the last 10 seasons/games when these two have met has been Vandy 23.1 0 Ole Miss 19.4 for a combined 42.5 which is 10.5 points LOWER than tonight’s posted total. The over/under in those aforementioned 10 meetings went 7-3 “under” with the game last season hitting 53 (would have pushed tonight’s total) and the other two games that went over were a 31-23 Vandy win and a 26-23 overtime Ole Miss win. Using tonight’s benchmark of 53 points, only 1 of the prior 10 would have surpassed this total (and that includes an overtime game).
What makes this game really intriguing for me from a “side” standpoint is that Ole Miss actually led last year’s game 23-6 in the third quarter before Vanderbilt launched their comeback that was started with a HUGE 52 yard touchdown pass. Big plays are not the norm and have to be considered slightly differently in the grand scheme of the re-cap. Vanderbilt limited Ole Miss to only 3 more points late in the 4th with just under 3 minutes to play to extend their lead to 26-20 but Ole Miss was unable to hold Vandy allowing them to score quickly on the ensuing possession with a touchdown with only 50 seconds left on the clock to complete the comeback and earn the Commodores a bowl game.
In that game however, Mississippi had more first downs in that game (24-17) out-yarded Vandy by 458-361 yards and put up 403 pass yards to Vandy’s 267. One of the criteria I use is to always analyze who won the stats in the prior meeting.
I think the books have it right in this one. Making Vanderbilt a home conference dog of 3 points might attract the money they need to the home side but the reality is that their losses for tonight’s game are going to be significant and the side to play is Ole Miss.
If you haven’t heard, Vanderbilt has had a very trying month of August. There is an ongoing investigation concerning four former players who allegedly raped an unconscious 21-year-old coed at a campus dorm in June. The four players accused of the crime have been dismissed and a fifth, junior wide receiver Chris Boyd, has been suspended indefinitely by the team after he was indicted earlier this month for allegedly giving one of the defendants advice on how to cover up the crime.
Ole Miss averaged 27.7 points on the road last season. Vanderbilt was a beast behind the ball last season limiting teams to 14.4 ppg in their home games.
HOWEVER, all in all, given the departures and dismissals of the players so vital to Vanderbilt’s offense last season and the fact that they have to contend with 10 returning Ole Miss defenders who remember last season’s meltdown all too well, I anticipate that Vandy will be going to its ground game not wanting to take too many chances in the air so soon in the season. This favors the under.
As for Ole miss, 9 returning offensive starters more versed and with more experience under their belt in their new offense (2nd year now) with no off-field distractions should have the advantage against the aforementioned commodores and only their 6 returning defensive starters from last season. I have to think that the off-field distractions have to impact the Commodores and despite the brave face being put up by the team to get on with the season, it has to have played a role in pre-season prep.
Interestingly enough, these two teams meet BEFORE their (cupcake) games NEXT week, Ole Miss takes on SE Missouri State and Vanderbilt takes on Austin Peay so right out of the gate, without time to fine tune their offenses and get their timing down during game situations, I don’t expect much risk taking tonight by both offenses in this HUGE season opening SEC West conference game.
Mississippi is rolling high on momentum in Hugh Freeze's 2nd year as head coach, taking Ole Miss from 2-10 two seasons ago to a 7-6 season last year and looks to build on that this year with a cast of returning veterans more versed with his system.
My power ratings (and remember it’s early) makes the probable score in this game 27-20 for Ole Miss. That score would get us the cover and the under.
Looking at some other noteworthy trends for tonight;
GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR BETS TONIGHT FOLKS.
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