Posted:
#1
I use technical data to make plays...a left brained approach......at least 90% of handicappers use their right brain....both ways can work, and one way is not inherently better than the other. If your methodology works, and you are up money at the end of the season, then your wallet will tell you if you are successful at what you do, or not. I've used this methodology to have a successful year so far in the Canadian Football league and I expect it to work in NCAA football.
1) North Texas +10
2) San Jose State +5
3) Army +17
4) Toledo +3
5) S. Miss +6-
In regards to the Army game, triple option teams have been historically successful as away dogs with the exception of when they're playing other triple option teams.
Army and New Mexico haven't had the success rate of as say Navy, Georgia Tech and Georgia Southern, however, Army and New Mexico have new coaches that have had a year or more to implement their systems and their defenses have also improved over what they'd had in previous years.
Army returns a high number of players from last year, an unusually high number for a service academy.
They covered against similar teams to Temple last year in Penn State and UConn as away dogs.
In my database which covers 26 years of data, teams that outrush their opponent as away dogs cover 76% of the time and have a record of 86-25 in week 1.
Teams that rush for >200 yards as an away underdog cover 76% of the time also. Army rushed for >300 yards/game on the road last year, so it's not a stretch to think that they'll be able to get 200 against Temple ...they rushed for 260 versus Penn State and 180 against UConn.
In regards to North Texas, they are putting in a spread offense similar to what Texas Tech has run. That means lots of plays, and perhaps lots of points. It will be interesting to watch how fast this team can successfully utilize this system.
Teams that score >27 points as a home dog cover 80% of the time and the OVER hits 80% of the time when scoring >27. So, two games in particular to watch the first week would be North Texas and Houston who are both home dogs and could conceivably score >27 points on their week one opponents.
Good fortune this season.
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