NCAA foots week 1

Good luck brother, I hope you win. I love betting on army it's just foolish disregard injuries, starting quarterback questionability

Good luck brother, I hope you win. I love betting on army it's just foolish disregard injuries, starting quarterback questionability

I just spent a few hours lookin' over some things that I look for..


North Texas has made my list

Tough crowd Indigo..

Thanks for everyone's kind words.

Indigoo, really like your mathematical approach, but the above quote bothers me. Why care what everyone else is doing??

You say there are stats showing underdogs with >50% support are 45% winners last couple of years. Seems like that should drift to 50% over several more years. The public does not play the game, the players do.

GL 

Uniman, I put out information that I have researched and when I think it is relevant to my handicapping I use it.  Sometimes I'll put it out into the public area.

I was wrong the Mean Green/Mustang total as wel but worry the MG can score 25+.....actually leaning Stangs minus the points.

Thank you for elaborating, appreciate the reply!

If it works for you, who am I to question it.

Again, GL this year!

 

 

I like N Tx, or I should probably state that I hate SMU on the road as 9.5 favorites,  Not because of the talent on the field, but more in my principals of the lines the book put out.

NO question N TX has been horrible in the past, and yes it certainly makes you look away like looking directly at the sun.

My thoughts are have you seen  what SMU has done to deserve to be -9.5 road favorites?  

I am a dog guy, that is where I look first to gather my thoughts information and start making a card.  As I look to SMU I don't see much at all from their recent past history.  Maybe they brought in some new talent, but even then most times it takes a bit of time to gel and get on the same page.

SMU is 29-118-2 SU 19.7 win % since 1990.     If you want to go further to include all lined road games, dogs and favorites they are 65-82-1.  That means fading SMU blindly on the road since 1990 you are a winner 55.8% of the time.  No handicapping, no injury updates.  Just a blind fade. 

I am not saying anyone just bet against them without making an effort to know more, but this isn't a bad place to start looking for value, or in the case of N Tx is a good place to start.

Since 1990 SMU has been DD road favorites 4 times 1-3 Ats in those games.  Since this game line  is -9.5 at this time, that makes this game SMU's 5th highest road line.  They have not been a road favorite since November of 2013.  Not too many times are they playing on the road where they are acually considered by the books to be a good team.  Most of the time these teams fail.

Smu has 1 win in their last 10 games, and even a loss to James Madison.  I am not going to research how bad that loss really was or if they lost all their QB's that day.

Smu is 2-7 ATS their last 9.

So why is SMU favored by this many?  Because as most of us know NTx is pretty dammn bad.

NTx I used the same time frame of 1990 and it spit these out:

NTx as a Home Dog of any # is 30-28 ATS since 1990.

If you then filter some of these results :

NTx is 16-7 ATS as a home dog catching 8 or more.

I am in no way telling you that this is the only way to break a game down.  There is a lot more information you should and could gather.  Its just where I begin to look for value. 

If you have a keen eye to break down talent match-ups, or you have more to share I would love to know your thoughts.

My first thought is there are only a hand full of teams that North Texas can cover against as a home dog, and after looking though the past data this SMU team doesn't appear to me to be the team that is up for this challenge.

I know I look and sound foolish backing a team that lost to Portland state 66-7.  I get it.  Like I said already this isn't a great squad.

If this game lands in my data against crappy road favorites and it also lands in Indigo's data findings.  I think this is an opportunity.

That is where my head is at.  I am certain the books are going to need NTx here.  I like that too.

Good luck!

SMU is 29-118-2 SU 19.7 win % since 1990.   *** On the road

That statistic means nothing spottie when it comes to 2016.

okay cool your opinion

you lost me at 1990...heck, even if you would've said 2010 you would've still lost me. obviously everyone in entitled to their own opinion but how could you possibly think that a teams record 26 years ago would have any effect on this years team?

i was not stating i was going to lay the 9.5, merely that i leaned that way as opposed to over the total....


gl this year

Mbiddy.  Look both these teams are horrible, you know it.  I go back to dates in the past to get a team profile.  It has nothing to do with a certain match up or who the players are on the field.  Smu or nTx could have brought in a few talented people.  But if you look back it has consistently shown that this is a horrible road team that doesn't get the talent that I would fall in love with laying just shy of double digits on the road.  

My vote is for your trends being a 100% waste. No missed tackle or dropped pas will occur because Smu did not cover a road game in 1993.

Ok cool Jason

In my opinion this is not a popularity contest or anything to vote on.  This is about picking each other brains and sharing that information.  It is up to each of us to decide what information holds value.  When we are convinced then we try and look for the best line.  Just because you or anyone else doesn't prefer the information I share doesn't mean that it is not valid or helpful to others.

Good luck!  Our combined mission is to beat the books !

6)  FIU +10-

Adding another:

I see that despite CSU (62%) and Toledo (55%) being played by the Covers community, you are still backing them. 

Army looking good !!