NCAA Foots Week 9

3* 7-2, +13.80 2* 9-5, +7.10 1* 29-23, +6.73 Year: 45-30, +27.63 Boston College/Virginia Tech No play for me. It’s awfully tough to go against Virginia Tech at home given the current situation as they are 13-2 at home on Thursday’s in the national spotlight, but those 2 losses have come to Boston College if I remember correctly. The total seemed a bit low, guess I’d play the over if I were to play anything here. Can see Va Tech’s offense performing above average with all the hype, and I expect BC to get 20-24 here too. Always a chance for overtime as well. Air Force/New Mexico Haven’t gotten a chance to cap the whole card yet, but if I have some extra change, I might make a play on New Mexico here. The line is dead on in my opinion. Air Force’s offense has been pretty decent this year, but this is a bad spot for them in my opinion. They’ve been successful not only because of the running game, but because of the medium pass as well. Not sure if that’ll work on a 3-3-5 defensive set this year. Linebackers/Linemen constantly moving around, and the way Air Force runs the ball and their blocking schemes, this is not a defense they’ll enjoy facing. Don’t know where to block, and the New Mexico defense is easily one of the quickest defenses in terms of team speed they’ll see all year. New Mexico is successful b/c of their defense, and ability to swarm the ball carrier. Got a hunch New Mexico is able to get up early in this one, and AF will have a tough time throwing the ball against a 5 DB set. Also, Air Force RB came down with food poisoning on Tuesday, questionable to make the trip, and hasn’t had the practice time to prepare for this one with the short week and travel. Boise State/Fresno State Uncertain on the status of Ian Johnson here, and should be a pretty big game, but I can’t back a Fresno defense here, even after the shutout last week. Think they’ll need to force some turnovers here to give them a chance to win, but they just haven’t forced many turnovers as of late (1 interception this year). GL

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Nropp, Any info on the MAC games this week?||reallyhappy.gif' border=0>

when will your picks come out, I have a feeling you will bounce back in a huge way!!

Colorado/Texas Tech Texas Tech coach Leach has been giving it to his players all week. Practicing in pads the day after the game, Is a nice revenge angle here as Tech lost to Colorado last year when Colorado hadn’t won a game yet last year. Have to believe Tech proves a point here, they have to in their next two games before playing Texas and Oklahoma to close it out. Can’t keep a high-powered offense down a few weeks in a row. Pittsburgh/Louisville How does Louisville bounce back after being told by a Big East official that they were wrong w/ the call last Friday at Uconn. I’m unsure, but a pitiful defense that has shown signs of improvement over the last few weeks is still something I can’t lay chalk on, and I also can’t lay anything below a +14 w/ Wannstedt on the road. North Carolina/Wake Forest Not a bad spot for Carolina here who has shown some spunk in the last few weeks, but facing a Wake Forest offense that used to run, run, run but now passes more than ever before. UNC has some issues in the secondary, and I think they have 3 freshman w/ very little experience back there. Not necessarily a good thing for going up against a tough mis-direction type offense. Wake Forest just takes care of the ball, and that’s what you like in laying the chalk at home. This Wake Forest team has already achieved exactly what Davis is trying to do at UNC, just gonna have to give it another year or so. Might make a play on Wake here… WVU/Rutgers If I can get a +7, I’ll play it. Rutgers has a chance for revenge here. They beat a USF team on just four days rest, and have a few extra days to prepare for this one. Rutgers has all the motivation in the world for this one, and it’ll be tough to pass up a touchdown, or maybe even a +6. Northwestern/Purdue Key to this game is simple. Two of the top passing offenses in the Big 10 against two of the worst pass defenses in the Big 10. Total lined at 65 is dead on, but there is no reason Purdue doesn’t put up 40 here. Catching 12.5 is nice, but when you look at it, Painter is going to have all day to throw. Northwestern only has 8 sacks in 8 games on the season thus far, and Painter is usually on target even when he is pressured. Give him a few extra seconds in the pocket, and he’ll pick this team apart. Northwestern’s special teams has got to be one of the worst in the country as teams are constantly having short fields on them. Purdue will take advantage of that in a quick way. I like the home chalk here.. Indiana/Wisconsin While I initially leaned Indiana here, I remember watching this exact game last year. Wisconsin basically did anything and everything it wanted to against the Hoosiers. They ran, ran, ran, and it opened up the play action. I can’t see that changing this year. Indiana has improved, but they’ll be starting two new safeties (one was a WR) who will have the undaunted task of tackling PJ Hill for the entire first quarter, and Wisconsin should be able to mix in a little play action and put this game out of reach. I really wanted to find a reason to play the Hoosiers, but their biggest weakness is the middle of that defense, and it showed last year in this exact game. It only makes matters worse to bring in two new guys into the secondary.

nropp11 too many teams man you got to go with the sure thing later man

phavancv, i haven't bet a thing yet.

nropp...don`t want to break your balls but...you looking at any 3 star plays this week. I lost some with you last week and am thinking a 3 star may be a dime play this week.

phavancy, what happened to the broken english, poor imigrant act? Playa. Don't question Nropp, he know's his ish.

nropp...don`t want to break your balls but...you looking at any 3 star plays this week. I lost some with you last week and am thinking a 3 star may be a dime play this week. easy clepto, we have 2 more months left bro... lookin at illinois/ball state over as a pretty big play thus far, just waiting on 1 or 2 things.

No problem...I`ve followed you in anything college for 8-10 months now, not blindly, but wisely. In Canada I can`t get the best feel for smaller conference NCAA and that can often be where the money lies. Your input is always considered.

Nropp11, Can you give me an insight on Troy vs Ark St. I like Troy a lot. Thanks!

phav, let him do his thing like he has bro...he'll bounce back from last week...

NRopp I think your take on Purdue is dead on. They are a play for me this week.

Watch out for a letdown with Rutgers. Rice has been a beast on carries. Something like 80 over the last two game? Rutgers is killing his NFL stock.||an_bomb.gif' border=0>

hey bro havne't really been reading your insights matter of fact this is my first time and i definitely like the input. Whats your thoughts about the USF game...Only laying 4 1/2 against UCONN...Just because they beat Louisville doesn't mean they can beat a very talented USF team who coming off a loss should be up for this game...thoughts

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GL||clover.gif' border=0>

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October 27, 2007 Ball State at Illinois Selection: Over 59 While an over 59 is not my type of play, I just don’t see either of these teams caring about the defensive side of the ball in this game. I certainly can wow you with stats on each of these teams as to how they get over the listed 59 but I won’t do that. Illinois is flat out pathetic against the pass. Ball State is flat out pathetic against the run. There is no reason as to why these offenses don’t continue to move the ball, get first downs, stop the clock, and continue the pattern all over again. Mendenhall/Juice/McGee should be able to run wild. I can see a little bit of Illinois controlling the ball on offense, but Ball State just won’t be able to stop them. Ball State knows it can hang with the big boys, and it’s homecoming for Illinois, so they’ll show no mercy here. They got beat by a MAC team last year at home, so they’ll take advantage of the numerous scoring opportunities they should receive. 2* Ball State/Illinois Over 59 Michigan State/Iowa Interesting match-up. These teams aren’t very familiar with the other (last played in 2004), and just never sure if the good or bad MSU will show up, let alone the good or bad Iowa. Mississippi State/Kentucky I have no interest in backing a team with a –14 spread that has just come off a physical 3 game stint that included Florida, LSU, and South Carolina. Akron/Buffalo I really really really wanted to make a play on Akron here, but I’m just not sold on this squad yet. They lost their top vocal leader and tackler a few weeks back and have not looked good since. I don’t want to say they have given up, but they are definitely a better all around squad than Buffalo. I will be on Akron here probably in the next few weeknight games as they are aired on ESPN and the sole basis of that play will be the possible return of Mackey after tearing his ACL. Then again, on Saturday, this teams starts a stretch of 3 games in 12 days. This team is pretty pumped up about playing on the primetime, so I’ll hold off here. Buffalo’s offense has been surprising and they’ve had decent success at home, but they’ve beaten Toledo and Ohio, who are down this year. October 27, 2007 CMU at Kent Selection: Over 60 I would normally not pass up a home dog in the MAC, but Kent State is down this year. Yes, CMU got thrashed last week in Clemson, but it’s pretty evident that their defense is just flat out pathetic. They’ve given up 30 points in all but two games this year (Army, NIU), and NIU shot itself in the foot that game. They had the ball inside the 10 four different times, and either turned the ball over or missed a field goal. Not only does Kent State have the best running back in the league, but they have just recently added another option on the offensive side of the ball. Julian Edelman (Kent State QB) is out after fracturing his arm last weekend and while some may think that it is a step down, the coaching staff almost look at it as a positive. Edelman lacked arm strength. The new kid, Giorgio Morgan does not. The coach has come out and said that they plan to pass a lot more, which in turn opens up holes for 5’5” nation’s leading rusher (I think) Eugene Jarvis. After the beating CMU took last week against the run, they’ll be trying to correct the things they have done wrong, so that they can stop Jarvis, which only opens up the passing game for Kent as well. I would normally play Kent here, but I think the over is the stronger option noting the inconsistency of both defenses. Remember, this game isn’t important for CMU. Yah, they’d like to win, but with some short weeks coming up, and this being a cross-conference matchup, I can see the defense not performing up to their mid-level expectations. Ontario Sneed, who is a damn good back for CMU, is questionable yet again, and if he doesn’t play (which I expect to happen for the 3rd or 4th straight week), that only gives LeFevour more opportunities in the air. 1* CMU/Kent over 60 Iowa State/Missouri A revenge game laying 28.5 points from the avenger. No play. MiamiOH/Vanderbilt Let down spot for Vanderbilt, but Miami OH is coming off a loss at Temple as a favorite, and have their biggest game of the year next week at home, before playing another key game the following week on ESPN. If Vanderbilt didn’t have Florida next week, then I’d probably lay the chalk here. I still might… UNLV/Wyoming Since upsetting Utah as a 7 point dog, a team with quite a bit of promise and team speed has fallen to an all-time low as they lost to CSU last weekend as short home fave’s. Can’t really lay chalk with Wyoming’s offense here, adding to that, that they have made a QB switch this week as well. They’ve scored 15 points combined in their last two games. SMU/Tulsa Tulsa has revenge and the much better offense here. SMU has only kept one of their losses within 7 points and that was last week against Tulane. Tulsa’s only beat one opponent if I remember correctly by 14 or more. Their defense is just not good enough to force enough 3 and outs to give the offense more time on the field. No play, although I contemplated Tulsa. Memphis/Tulane Tulane returns home after a 3 game roady where they had a chance to win all 3 games, and finally won one against SMU in the third game. I’m sort of curious to see how Memphis comes in here. They’ve been through quite a lot this season (losses to Sun Belt teams, death of player), and they finally got an emotional win last week at Rice. Two teams coming in on an emotional high. Might take a look at the under here w/ two letdown teams facing off against each other… Arizona/Washington In their last 5 games, Washington has been outgained by 1,077 yards. However, Arizona’s offense of throwing short passes actually fits into Washington’s defensive scheme a bit better than their previous five opponents. Washington is not a very good tackling team and Arizona’s 4 or 5 yard passes that somehow always turn into 20 or 30 yards has me off of Washington. No play. USC/Oregon I didn’t even look at it. Gut says Oregon – the points, but I’ll leave it at that. I’d rather watch the game and learn a few things. Louisiana Tech/Utah State Another home pup that looks tasty in Utah State after almost getting into the win column last week against Nevada. La. Tech is traditionally not a good road team, and are 0-3 on the road this year, but those losses have come to Fresno, Ole Miss, and California. They were within a touchdown of Boise last week, and dropped the game. Utah State, although 0-7, hasn’t given up quite yet. They were down big against Nevada and battled back, so not a bad spot to take USU here. I’ll pass on it… South Florida/Uconn Another game I am just not interested in making a play on. South Florida has some things to prove after a national tv loss and being ranked #2 in the BCS. Uconn has moved into the BCS top 25 (#23 I think). They’ve (Uconn) never beaten a ranked opponent (0-11).

Hello Nropp11 What about tonite? New Mexico and under ?? hat you think? your fan.

Hello Nropp11 What about tonite? New Mexico and under ?? hat you think? Like New Mexico, but gonna sit the night out...

October 27, 2007 Clemson at Maryland Selection: Clemson –3 Here we go again. Road chalk in conference. Hate to do it, but I like this game quite a bit. I think I referenced this game in a write-up of some sort last week. I watched this game in it’s entirety. It was one of those games where Clemson was a –18.5 home favorite in a game at 11am coming off a devastating loss to Virginia Tech. Clemson comes into this game on a high after scoring 70 points last week, and realize the importance of avenging their 13-12 loss last year. Maryland is not as good as last year, their defense is not as good, and if they get down early here, they won’t be able to pass on the stingy Clemson defense, also noting that Maryland’s offensive line is in a state of disarray. More pressure on the QB, leads to quick throws, leads to turnovers, which leads to points. I’ll gladly lay the chalk in this matchup. 3* Clemson –3 –120 WMU/EMU This is usually a pretty damn good game to watch, b/c it’s usually a close game. If I remember correctly, last year’s version was either rain filled or snow filled and Eastern Michigan gave the game away after a big lead. This should be a close game. There is no doubt in my mind that WMU is the better football team, I just can’t back a team that has no killer instinct as I witnessed last week. WMU also has CMU on the schedule next after a short bye week. Nebraska/Texas I really wanted to find a reason to play Nebraska because these two teams are not three touchdowns apart. They just aren’t. But the difference is ever since the USC game, Nebraska has straight tumbled, and given up. If you’re looking for a reason to play Nebraska and throw out the give-up theory, Nebraska’s opponents are a combined 29-18, while Texas’ opponents are a mere 23-25. Nebraska comes in with a SOS of #22, while Texas sits at an #81. The statistical offensive and defensive numbers for the game just aren’t that far apart to warrant a 20+ point spread here, even with the poor performances of the past 3 or 4 games. This game is nationally televised, and gives Keller a reason to perform (NFL) against a weak CB crew, but I’ll sit this one out. Georgia/Florida Another one of those games I’ll watch instead of invest. Idaho/Nevada Nevada’s outscored Idaho 107-21 in the last two games and have scored at least 33 points in the last five series meetings between the two clubs. Some pretty impressive numbers, but Idaho should be able to run the ball w/ success here. One would think that running the ball would keep the Nevada offense off the field and have a chance for a backdoor, or even an under play. No play for me. Rice/Marshall An almost puzzling line, but w/ the homecoming game and so many close defeats, it just seems like this is a good chance for Marshall to get a big victory. Rice beats Southern Miss, Marshall just lost to Southern Miss, now laying the –8.5. If I could get it below a TD, I’d back Marshall here. Rice played 7 freshman with very little experience on the defensive side of the ball last week and can’t get much better with a 118th ranked defense.