Simply amazing the time and effort you put into this each week.. I can't tell you how much we all appreciate you..
Love the Arkansas pick and the NCst. I also love the under in Arky / Ole Miss game.. Should be good for a parlay if anyone is interested, cause if the plan works out for Arky and they cover, it's because they choked that clock like they did vs A&M.. Also, the numbers are kinda skewed between Ole Miss pass offense and Arky pass defense.. Ole miss had a terrible time running the ball this year, then they had a few good games when Tunsil came back, so they had been throwing the ball a lot more than normal. And Arky has a pretty dang good run defense, so teams were going to the air against them to move it, but their red zone defense is stout..! The thing I like about this game, is Freeze thinks he's found a run game and it's a safer way to win games than throw it 100 times, that's why their totals are in the 20's now.. And Arky will definitely keep it on the ground and P/A pass to move the chains.. Both teams have pretty dang good DL's and can force FGs in the red zone.. This points to a close, low scoring game... Arky + Under for me
thanks a lot. appreciate it ! like your take on the under especially the ole miss trend of more running makes a lot of sense to do that - and keep that D fresh. GL this wk
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Quote Originally Posted by K1NG_BAMA:
Simply amazing the time and effort you put into this each week.. I can't tell you how much we all appreciate you..
Love the Arkansas pick and the NCst. I also love the under in Arky / Ole Miss game.. Should be good for a parlay if anyone is interested, cause if the plan works out for Arky and they cover, it's because they choked that clock like they did vs A&M.. Also, the numbers are kinda skewed between Ole Miss pass offense and Arky pass defense.. Ole miss had a terrible time running the ball this year, then they had a few good games when Tunsil came back, so they had been throwing the ball a lot more than normal. And Arky has a pretty dang good run defense, so teams were going to the air against them to move it, but their red zone defense is stout..! The thing I like about this game, is Freeze thinks he's found a run game and it's a safer way to win games than throw it 100 times, that's why their totals are in the 20's now.. And Arky will definitely keep it on the ground and P/A pass to move the chains.. Both teams have pretty dang good DL's and can force FGs in the red zone.. This points to a close, low scoring game... Arky + Under for me
thanks a lot. appreciate it ! like your take on the under especially the ole miss trend of more running makes a lot of sense to do that - and keep that D fresh. GL this wk
Iowa 7 Indiana (60.5) Megalocks line 8 Sagarin 17 Lean to the fav here - one of the best Ds in the NCAA and a great run game going up against the worst D in the big 10. What worries us is that Iowa has not seen an offense like Indiana and joke all you want this team played one heck of a game against ohio st at home and played sparty tough on the road for 3Q only down by 5.....Had this one pegged as a game to play on Sunday just did not pull the trigger.....Always want the better D but Indiana's proven ability this yr to give good team fits makes us a bit hesitant. Summary. No leanage although it is probably a 24873857904875892347 unit play for sagarin. mega
Thanks for the breakdown! Felt like Sudfeld would be able to MATRICULATE in the passing game but might not be enough to cover. Over might be the play here.
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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Iowa 7 Indiana (60.5) Megalocks line 8 Sagarin 17 Lean to the fav here - one of the best Ds in the NCAA and a great run game going up against the worst D in the big 10. What worries us is that Iowa has not seen an offense like Indiana and joke all you want this team played one heck of a game against ohio st at home and played sparty tough on the road for 3Q only down by 5.....Had this one pegged as a game to play on Sunday just did not pull the trigger.....Always want the better D but Indiana's proven ability this yr to give good team fits makes us a bit hesitant. Summary. No leanage although it is probably a 24873857904875892347 unit play for sagarin. mega
Thanks for the breakdown! Felt like Sudfeld would be able to MATRICULATE in the passing game but might not be enough to cover. Over might be the play here.
I have been following you the past 3 weeks and really appreciate everything you do! I have followed many people over the years and no one does it better than you. I look forward to reading your write ups everyday. Thanks for all you do and keep up the great work!!!!!! BOL this week
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[Quote: Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS] THREAD SUMMARY
picks (should have a couple more)
NC St -2 (would play up to -3; half size at -3.5 or -4 max)
Arkansas +11 (would play down to 10)
ORDER of appearance for write-ups
NC State / BC (post 38)
Arkanasas / Ole Miss (post 55)
Tuesday - NIU / Toledo (post 65)
Wednesday - BG / Ohio (post 66)
Thursday - Buffalo / Kent (post 72) ; W Mich / Ball (post 88)
Thursday - Baylor / K St (post 92) ; App St / Ark St (post 98)
Thursday - Mizz / Miss St (post 99) / Fresno / Nevada (post 111)
I have been following you the past 3 weeks and really appreciate everything you do! I have followed many people over the years and no one does it better than you. I look forward to reading your write ups everyday. Thanks for all you do and keep up the great work!!!!!! BOL this week
Usually every week I post on here about my Red Raiders and how the over will be crushed (last week played in the highest scoring game of the season in NCAA )
This week however I would stay away from Tech and the overs (80) as the game starts at 11 in morgantown..... This week I really like Oklahoma vs ISU over at 61... Night game in Norman I can see Oklahoma covering this by themselves, but I also believe ISU will score a couple of times!!! MEGA thanks for all the help you ROCK
Wreck'em
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Usually every week I post on here about my Red Raiders and how the over will be crushed (last week played in the highest scoring game of the season in NCAA )
This week however I would stay away from Tech and the overs (80) as the game starts at 11 in morgantown..... This week I really like Oklahoma vs ISU over at 61... Night game in Norman I can see Oklahoma covering this by themselves, but I also believe ISU will score a couple of times!!! MEGA thanks for all the help you ROCK
Apparently we are gonna get sucked into this one - there was serious MOB STEAM on this bad boy cranking it up from the 55 area. We will bite.
Megalocks 428573489 star STAT of the WEEK - only $9000 to call our hotline and get a recorded message of the stat - or read it right here right now.....Georgia has gone 28 DRIVES without a TD. ..................Now we know they are playing Kentucky who's D is just awful but Georgia offense is a bit of a mess...QB situation ? Well it is listed as Bauta OR Lambert....Either way - they have not had much productivity in the passing game - and with Chubb out and Michel playing with a broken hand - and one WR that scares you.....Hard to see Georgia going berserk....Their run game should work very well and keep the clock running.......Kentucky plays just their 3rd road game and with Boom Williams out this week - that is their most explosive weapon - Towles only has 9 TD passes all year and we do not see them hitting for many big plays.......This total just seems a bit rich we thought it should be closer to 52-53....It is an early start and rain is forecasted at 90%....Neither team playing well - Georgia hasn't scored a TD since the Astros were in first place.....Biggest worry is if Kentucky just lays down and Ga gets 45+ that would be bad for the total. Kentucky just had a team meeting - hopefully that means they play D like their hair is on fire for at least a quarter or two.
GL mega
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next play
Kentucky / Georgia under 58.5
Apparently we are gonna get sucked into this one - there was serious MOB STEAM on this bad boy cranking it up from the 55 area. We will bite.
Megalocks 428573489 star STAT of the WEEK - only $9000 to call our hotline and get a recorded message of the stat - or read it right here right now.....Georgia has gone 28 DRIVES without a TD. ..................Now we know they are playing Kentucky who's D is just awful but Georgia offense is a bit of a mess...QB situation ? Well it is listed as Bauta OR Lambert....Either way - they have not had much productivity in the passing game - and with Chubb out and Michel playing with a broken hand - and one WR that scares you.....Hard to see Georgia going berserk....Their run game should work very well and keep the clock running.......Kentucky plays just their 3rd road game and with Boom Williams out this week - that is their most explosive weapon - Towles only has 9 TD passes all year and we do not see them hitting for many big plays.......This total just seems a bit rich we thought it should be closer to 52-53....It is an early start and rain is forecasted at 90%....Neither team playing well - Georgia hasn't scored a TD since the Astros were in first place.....Biggest worry is if Kentucky just lays down and Ga gets 45+ that would be bad for the total. Kentucky just had a team meeting - hopefully that means they play D like their hair is on fire for at least a quarter or two.
My book has Houston -8. I knew they had high powered offense, a little surprised they put up that many pts on a SEC caliber defense and shut them out. Grant it was Vandy. I see a shootout vs Cincy being as though they can score as well. Houston possibly pulling away late and covering the 8. They have a solid D thats flying under the radar...
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My book has Houston -8. I knew they had high powered offense, a little surprised they put up that many pts on a SEC caliber defense and shut them out. Grant it was Vandy. I see a shootout vs Cincy being as though they can score as well. Houston possibly pulling away late and covering the 8. They have a solid D thats flying under the radar...
Tempted to try the doggie in this one will see if it heads up to 14 because that is what we would need here to have value imo....App St has the #1 D #1O and #1 rush D in the SunBelt....Meanwhile Ark St D is avg at best and their passing offense is 2nd last in the conference....Now what we do like for Ark St is 1) their D if it has a strength is stopping the run #3 in conf and that is App St bread and butter....2) This game is essentially the conf champ game provided each team can hold serve in relatively easy games remaining....12 points is a lot to give a team that has their QB getting back into game shape....Just not crazy about the fact that Ark St finds a way to score but have given up 37 35 31 27 34 last 5 games - their offense moves fast and the D ends up on the field a lot but still App St should cut through them like a knife thru butter Ark St will need some help in the turnover dept and they do have some players that can make things happen IN SPACE....Weather also looks very good so that helps the wolves imo.
Summary. No lean yet. Let's see what the line does.
mega
Mega you got a lean yet? My books says Ark St. +10.5 here meaning money is going towards Ark St. and or books wants me to play Appa St. at -10.5. I actually like Ark St. here with the points despite not getting the 14 like you suggested. But I want to hear your opinion.
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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
App St 12 Ark St (62)
Megalocks line 10
Sagarin 13
Tempted to try the doggie in this one will see if it heads up to 14 because that is what we would need here to have value imo....App St has the #1 D #1O and #1 rush D in the SunBelt....Meanwhile Ark St D is avg at best and their passing offense is 2nd last in the conference....Now what we do like for Ark St is 1) their D if it has a strength is stopping the run #3 in conf and that is App St bread and butter....2) This game is essentially the conf champ game provided each team can hold serve in relatively easy games remaining....12 points is a lot to give a team that has their QB getting back into game shape....Just not crazy about the fact that Ark St finds a way to score but have given up 37 35 31 27 34 last 5 games - their offense moves fast and the D ends up on the field a lot but still App St should cut through them like a knife thru butter Ark St will need some help in the turnover dept and they do have some players that can make things happen IN SPACE....Weather also looks very good so that helps the wolves imo.
Summary. No lean yet. Let's see what the line does.
mega
Mega you got a lean yet? My books says Ark St. +10.5 here meaning money is going towards Ark St. and or books wants me to play Appa St. at -10.5. I actually like Ark St. here with the points despite not getting the 14 like you suggested. But I want to hear your opinion.
Hard to support anything other than Florida in this one - Their D is playing great and they can either score points or set their offense up in great position....Given that Vandy has been so anemic on offense - ranked #97 and both QBs appear to need a lot more work - probably gonna be a long day for them.....The added bonus is Florida #2 in turnover margin and Vandy #122 you just know Gators are going to get some easy points (HOT TAKE) .....Harris has not thrown an INT yet....The saving grace for Vandy is that their D has been playing fantastic and their are not going to give up much if the offense can stay out of its own way.....Florida may struggle to get into the 20s.
The one thing Vandy fans can do is stick it to Georgia fans. "We have not scored a TD on 25 straight drives but YOU guys have not scored a TD on 28 straight. Ha ! Suck it !"
Summary. No lean. Think there may be too many free points to go under a low number like 27. -21 is tempting but Vandy D vey goooooooo.
mega
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Florida 21 Vandy (37)
Megalocks line 23
Sagarin 25
Hard to support anything other than Florida in this one - Their D is playing great and they can either score points or set their offense up in great position....Given that Vandy has been so anemic on offense - ranked #97 and both QBs appear to need a lot more work - probably gonna be a long day for them.....The added bonus is Florida #2 in turnover margin and Vandy #122 you just know Gators are going to get some easy points (HOT TAKE) .....Harris has not thrown an INT yet....The saving grace for Vandy is that their D has been playing fantastic and their are not going to give up much if the offense can stay out of its own way.....Florida may struggle to get into the 20s.
The one thing Vandy fans can do is stick it to Georgia fans. "We have not scored a TD on 25 straight drives but YOU guys have not scored a TD on 28 straight. Ha ! Suck it !"
Summary. No lean. Think there may be too many free points to go under a low number like 27. -21 is tempting but Vandy D vey goooooooo.
I've not participated in forum much this season, but always try to log in long enough to read what Mega has to say.... great work as always buddy...best of luck
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I've not participated in forum much this season, but always try to log in long enough to read what Mega has to say.... great work as always buddy...best of luck
swissbeats - Sagarin is a stats guy who does power ratings for a bunch of sports - you can access on usatoday website or just google him....Our philosophy is when someone does number crunching that you cannot match - just tail it,......We then compare to our own hand crafted numbers and the pointspread. GL
kvngr GL this wk bud
MWill - Cincy game on request line - will get to it tomorrow am
falcs thx a lot ! GL welcome to the forum
vorvan
cskeete - agree Sooners over looks pretty good..........Wreck Em
Eyez - Cincy game up tomorrow
dane - thx for the intel
SCC - I am not playing the Ark St game at all - that last game for App St kinda freaked me out - I think 10 is about the right number now....It is a good matchup for Ark St but boy their QB does not look the same as last yr and they are kinda one dimensional....you are getting compensated with 10 pts tho.....I just have no clue at this number either way - sorry man - best of luck
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dodgy
madden thanks !
Spartans ....Sudfeld can indeed MATRICULATE
ilose
swissbeats - Sagarin is a stats guy who does power ratings for a bunch of sports - you can access on usatoday website or just google him....Our philosophy is when someone does number crunching that you cannot match - just tail it,......We then compare to our own hand crafted numbers and the pointspread. GL
kvngr GL this wk bud
MWill - Cincy game on request line - will get to it tomorrow am
falcs thx a lot ! GL welcome to the forum
vorvan
cskeete - agree Sooners over looks pretty good..........Wreck Em
Eyez - Cincy game up tomorrow
dane - thx for the intel
SCC - I am not playing the Ark St game at all - that last game for App St kinda freaked me out - I think 10 is about the right number now....It is a good matchup for Ark St but boy their QB does not look the same as last yr and they are kinda one dimensional....you are getting compensated with 10 pts tho.....I just have no clue at this number either way - sorry man - best of luck
I've not participated in forum much this season, but always try to log in long enough to read what Mega has to say.... great work as always buddy...best of luck
thanks man ! class act Tideman
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Quote Originally Posted by tideman:
I've not participated in forum much this season, but always try to log in long enough to read what Mega has to say.... great work as always buddy...best of luck
Much appreciated Mega. Been on covers for awhile now. First time posting after reading your write ups. You know what you're doing so I had to post. Keep it up bruh...great work
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Much appreciated Mega. Been on covers for awhile now. First time posting after reading your write ups. You know what you're doing so I had to post. Keep it up bruh...great work
I'm convinced. The best play sometimes is the no play. However playing Buffalo -3 and the O62 on Western Michigan. While 62 is kind of high I'm kind of confident on this bad boy.
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I'm convinced. The best play sometimes is the no play. However playing Buffalo -3 and the O62 on Western Michigan. While 62 is kind of high I'm kind of confident on this bad boy.
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