All Forums | College Football

NCAA week 10

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 92544
Posts: 416
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 6375
Posted: #226
saw Illinois STEAMING v Purdue. Thought maybe Hot Carl had made a pick here. but no.


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 6
Posted: #227
Mega, got a situation on Middle Tenn and Marshall.About 3 weeks ago we discussed Sagarin ratings. We both use it. We had Navy as fav playing AF at 11. Navy's rating was lower. I use a 5 point difference. Navy won ATS. Then we had South Fl at home vs Syracuse. South Fl rating was at least 5 lower as Fav. South Fl win ATS. Tou liked Syracuse in that one . We discussed that game. We have had a few more like this year and many over the years. There is a bout a 90% accuracy rate on taking the lower rating in these situations. Now we have Marshall as dawg with the higher rating at Middle Tenn. System says to take Middle Tenn.   I'm trying to get to the 100% accuracy rate for my parlay and this is one of my picks. Only been studying college football since 1983 but never have hit my 10 team parlay. Hit plenty of nine and eight team parlay. Could I please have your opinion on this game. As mush as you write , I know you put in a lot of ours studying games and Thank you. I'm asking you because you are a better capper than me right as I am learning   more from your discussions. Thanks again
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2014
Posts: 349
Posted: #228
Quote Originally Posted by pjam37:

Mega, got a situation on Middle Tenn and Marshall.About 3 weeks ago we discussed Sagarin ratings. We both use it. We had Navy as fav playing AF at 11. Navy's rating was lower. I use a 5 point difference. Navy won ATS. Then we had South Fl at home vs Syracuse. South Fl rating was at least 5 lower as Fav. South Fl win ATS. Tou liked Syracuse in that one . We discussed that game. We have had a few more like this year and many over the years. There is a bout a 90% accuracy rate on taking the lower rating in these situations. Now we have Marshall as dawg with the higher rating at Middle Tenn. System says to take Middle Tenn.   I'm trying to get to the 100% accuracy rate for my parlay and this is one of my picks. Only been studying college football since 1983 but never have hit my 10 team parlay. Hit plenty of nine and eight team parlay. Could I please have your opinion on this game. As mush as you write , I know you put in a lot of ours studying games and Thank you. I'm asking you because you are a better capper than me right as I am learning   more from your discussions. Thanks again

So, you are saying that when there is at least a 5 point delta between Sagarin and Vegas the FAVORITE is ATS 90%??? 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2014
Posts: 6565
Posted: #229
Like all your plays..:)
But them BULL DOGS are good after a lose. I'll be on them this week-14 . Seem to me is a better bet. GL this week MEGA.
PS
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2011
Posts: 5415
Posted: #230
Great work as always..The real GOAT on this site along with the dude that just dabbles."Ive been Hibernating!"
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #231

Quote Originally Posted by SCC:

I'm convinced. The best play sometimes is the no play. However playing Buffalo -3 and the O62 on Western Michigan. While 62 is kind of high I'm kind of confident on this bad boy.

like both buddy  GL. and get my girlfriend out of your avatar.

 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 26726
Posted: #232
**They just had a team meeting guy**
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #233

Tennessee 17 S Carolina (58)

Megalocks line 14

Sagarin 17

Sucked out of our SC play last week vs T AM as the line started dropping as soon as we wanted to play it  it happens....Seem to have a breath of new life after the coaching change - Orth / Wilds doing damage but the thing is their defense still needs some players ranked 13th in the SEC - so while 17 is a lot of points - hard to jump in with both feet - in particular - Tennessee run offense #2 in SEC and SC run d is last in the SEC....and who is playing better than Tenn right now ? After down 24-3 to Ga - stormed back to win that - then outrushed and almost beat Bama - then destroyed Kentucky.....Hard to fade a team like that BUT we still think 17 is a boatload and fwiw the last 3 games between these 2 teams - decided by3 2 3 points....How much new coach adrenaline does SC have left when Tenn pounds the living poo out of them with the run game ? too risky to lay full lumber but maybe a small degenerate taste if you feel like it would not be the worst thing ever.

Summary - lean SC 17+....Cannot justify a play on this tho. mega

 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #234

Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:

**They just had a team meeting guy**

like for real - last time that worked ? <crickets>

 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #235

skip

pjam - thanks man. Marshall game is on the request line will get to it tomorrow buddy

dodgy

storm -  I like GA to cover - GL pal

warcam

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2014
Posts: 1191
Posted: #236
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

like both buddy  GL. and get my girlfriend out of your avatar.




 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2006
Posts: 6591
Posted: #237
Caps too many games guy! Lol. Just kidding.

I just discovered your thread. Interesting insight. I will visit regularly.

As far as your plays, I like Arkansas myself. NC State seems too good to be true. I know BC is hot garbage. But, that line just seems short.

Good luck! 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 6
Posted: #238
Quote Originally Posted by Dodgy:


So, you are saying that when there is at least a 5 point delta between Sagarin and Vegas the FAVORITE is ATS 90%??? 
no, what I am saying is that if the Fav  has a lower  rating 5 points lower, then is its 90%. most of the time, the higher rating is the fav. Point speads are made using these ratings, then adjusted from that point in accordance the situation.(injury, practice time, coaching, weather, ect) 
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 35337
Posted: #239
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Tennessee 17 S Carolina (58)

Megalocks line 14

Sagarin 17

Sucked out of our SC play last week vs T AM as the line started dropping as soon as we wanted to play it  it happens....Seem to have a breath of new life after the coaching change - Orth / Wilds doing damage but the thing is their defense still needs some players ranked 13th in the SEC - so while 17 is a lot of points - hard to jump in with both feet - in particular - Tennessee run offense #2 in SEC and SC run d is last in the SEC....and who is playing better than Tenn right now ? After down 24-3 to Ga - stormed back to win that - then outrushed and almost beat Bama - then destroyed Kentucky.....Hard to fade a team like that BUT we still think 17 is a boatload and fwiw the last 3 games between these 2 teams - decided by3 2 3 points....How much new coach adrenaline does SC have left when Tenn pounds the living poo out of them with the run game ? too risky to lay full lumber but maybe a small degenerate taste if you feel like it would not be the worst thing ever.

Summary - lean SC 17+....Cannot justify a play on this tho. mega


On my short list....  I'll have my finger on the trigger when it drops to Tenn -16.5 on Saturday morning          Vols are hitting stride... they'll finish as the hottest SEC team.  
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 385
Posted: #240
love your threads! :)
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2011
Posts: 7891
Posted: #241
GL this week Mega.  Looking forward to the rest of the writeups.  Thanks for taking the time.  
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2015
Posts: 19
Posted: #242
Can anybody tell me why line move from buffalo-3 to buffalo+1
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2015
Posts: 19
Posted: #243
Can someone tell me the line movement from buffalo-3 to +1? Thank you
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #244

Quote Originally Posted by Cambo_Dragon18:

Can someone tell me the line movement from buffalo-3 to +1? Thank you

Big name tout on Kent St

I have been watching this one like a hawk all week....I noted that I hate when a line just sits there at -2.5 forever - often that means the line is gonna go down for whatever reason - injury - suspension - or Tout Scum Inc releasing a 2457239485723489 UNIT HAMMER PLAY

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 228
Posted: #245
 GL Mega

 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #246
SCC 

TAMU

Jdr.  GL this wk. 

Combo. Tout release today. 

BK. thanks man. GL. 

BWS. Tennessee is on fire!!!!

Pjam. 

 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #247
Quote Originally Posted by vegazbabe:

love your threads! :)



THANKS !! Good luck this week 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2014
Posts: 125
Posted: #248
you said lean mizz/miss st under at anything above 38.. its at 42.  Would you play it now?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2014
Posts: 125
Posted: #249
you leaned under 38 in missouri game.  its at 42 now. would you make it a play?
 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2014
Posts: 125
Posted: #250
my bad first post didnt seem like it posted
All Forums | College Football
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.