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NCAA week 10

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Posted: #276
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

nunong  will do my best to get to the Clemson game gonna look at it tonight I think GL

don

florida55 - see nopressure's post #272

nopressure - thx man

 

REQUEST LINE ....Megalocks...."A global network"

MTSU 3 Marshall (57)

Megalocks line pk

Sagarin - MARSHALL 3

Dug into this one for the masses.....Marshall is 8-1 and while they have not had much of a schedule - they have handled business very nicely - and its not like MTSU can talk - they have beat Jackson St Charlotte and FIU I mean like for real ....They are 3-5 and need to find 3 wins in the last 4 weeks to become bowl eligible doubt they would get in with 5 if it comes to that since they were snubbed last yr at 6-6....Marshall and WK are undefeated in conf play and probably play for a trip to the conf game on Nov 27....A loss here would not kill them unless they also lose to FIU...WK is the must win game so we think They Need To Win Guy is all over MTSU but their D is bad - Marshall's is good...Marshall HC is also very underrated ATS.....Finally - it is a bad matchup for MTSU - they like to pass - Marshall is #1 in NCAA in pass eff D - yes we already conceded the schedule - but they did hold SMiss to 10. Johnson out at RB for Marshall - also #2 guy is Q. MTSU has 3 of top 4 RB as Q. Its that time of year.

Summary. Not touching this game. Gun to the head and make a correct pick or leave Covers forever - we would go Marshall TT over 27. Think they can MATRICULATE if needed - 486Y passing last wk vs Charlotte and MTSU likes tempo should get a good number of possessions.

mega 

 so many jewels in this one , hahahahaha


.
 
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Posted: #277
Yikes, 0-2 yesterday. Lost the O63 by 1 point!!! when Western Broncos could have kicked a field goal but instead decided to kill clock. Sigh. Buffalo should've won by at least 3 but played bad 3/4 o the game.

Anywho. Time to move on!  I loving Marshall and LSU.
 
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Posted: #278
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

 so many jewels in this one , hahahahaha



 I appreciate the write-ups Mega! If you have time can please share your thoughts on Cal/Oregon
 
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Posted: #279
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

nunong  will do my best to get to the Clemson game gonna look at it tonight I think GL

don

florida55 - see nopressure's post #272

nopressure - thx man

 

REQUEST LINE ....Megalocks...."A global network"

MTSU 3 Marshall (57)

Megalocks line pk

Sagarin - MARSHALL 3

Dug into this one for the masses.....Marshall is 8-1 and while they have not had much of a schedule - they have handled business very nicely - and its not like MTSU can talk - they have beat Jackson St Charlotte and FIU I mean like for real ....They are 3-5 and need to find 3 wins in the last 4 weeks to become bowl eligible doubt they would get in with 5 if it comes to that since they were snubbed last yr at 6-6....Marshall and WK are undefeated in conf play and probably play for a trip to the conf game on Nov 27....A loss here would not kill them unless they also lose to FIU...WK is the must win game so we think They Need To Win Guy is all over MTSU but their D is bad - Marshall's is good...Marshall HC is also very underrated ATS.....Finally - it is a bad matchup for MTSU - they like to pass - Marshall is #1 in NCAA in pass eff D - yes we already conceded the schedule - but they did hold SMiss to 10. Johnson out at RB for Marshall - also #2 guy is Q. MTSU has 3 of top 4 RB as Q. Its that time of year.

Summary. Not touching this game. Gun to the head and make a correct pick or leave Covers forever - we would go Marshall TT over 27. Think they can MATRICULATE if needed - 486Y passing last wk vs Charlotte and MTSU likes tempo should get a good number of possessions.

mega 


my bad meant to quote this one ^^
 
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Posted: #280
Can I do a request Mega? How is Houston at -9 vs Cinn? I think somebody else made this request.  But Houston has been absolutely money this year for ATS. While Cinncinnati has a pretty dynamic offense the best team they've beat all season is probably the Canes and even then that game was questionable and they were on their way to disarray. While Houston has not beaten anyone perse They have been dismantling their opposition by an average of over 45ppg scored. Why should that stop now? Cinn. defense is not that good especially on the road where they have given up an average of 39ppg. I don't think they can keep pace with Cinn IMO.
 
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Posted: #281
Correction, I don't think Cinn offense can keep pace with Houston offense. I expect something like a 40-24 type game.
 
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Posted: #282
Great work again sir. Here's to another winning week buddy . Thanks again for your write ups, love reading them every week. GL this week. Already on LSU +7, like the UGA/Kentucky under play 
 
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Posted: #283
Navy/Memphis
Cincinnati/Houston

Thinking bout a little 3 team AAC Parlay.

SMU +13
Navy +9.5
Houston -9

Whatcha think?


Thanks Mega. Great job as usual. Fired up for abother weekend!!!
 
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Posted: #284

thanks everyone

Harvard- sorry bro I have no idea on that ULL / Ga St game - GaSt has surprised me and ULL has disappointed me but the line seems low? no clue man sorry !

wahoo  glad we have not lost our touch

SCC  Houston game done....just watching the lines hope to post it soon.

nopressure - sorry buddy - have only seen Oregon play twice and Cal once just do not have a feel for that game. GL

GoNoles  thanks buddy ! hope to do well this wk - GL on your plays

Bloodshot - finishing up our AAC analysis now.....I think Navy and SMU are good just not sure about Houston but go with your gut

 

 
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Posted: #285

REQUEST LINE........Megalocks....."Moving lines and changing lives"

Memphis 9 Navy (64)

Megalocks line 7

Sagarin 8

One of the interesting things that nobody is talking about ? Navy is tied for first in their division - Houston - Memphis - Navy all 4-0. Now like for real....anyone wanna bet against Navy ??? We do have a lean here to the dog but will want 10+ to pounce. Up to 9 now.

Memphis is good. Let's face facts. Lynch is 18 TD 1 int. Good run D. Well coached. Here is the thing.....They have no experience facing the option and that does matter when you only have one week to prepare....sure they have been thinking about it - and probably doing some drills for a while - but seeing the Navy option at full speed with MAYBE the best QB they have had running it ....and one of our fav all time players....K Reynolds....is going to be very very difficult for Memphis.....Navy only loss to ND this year and that was the only game that they gave up more than 21 points.....Last week their D only gave up 62 rushing yards to a very good USF running team...but what worries us is the obvious - their pass D vs the Memphis passing attack....So despite running a lot of clock - that to us justifies the total well over 60.....If Lynch was mistake prone it would be one thing - but unless we see some fumbles here or there - Navy gonna have their hands full b/c the only offense with a pulse torched them =- ND. Sooooooo.....we lean Navy - 24-10 L34 ATS as road dog - 0-1 this yr....but the MATCHUP is just not what we want to see - in fact there might be a dozen teams that we would be worried about if we were Navy and this is one of them. Great passing team. Do not make mistakes.......And like we said Memphis has beat Ole Miss....BG...etc...are a legit top 20 team IMO.

Summary - lean Navy at +9. Those freakshows that actually like NCAA teasers it strikes us that +16 would be pretty safe. If the line hits 10 tomorrow we are gonna have a hard time not playing it. Right now just a lean.

mega

 
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Posted: #286
THREAD SUMMARY

picks

NC St -2 (would play up to -3; half size at -3.5 or -4 max)

Arkansas +11 (would play down to 10)

Georgia / Kentucky under 58.5 (would play down to 58)

 

ORDER of appearance for write-ups

NC State / BC (post 38)

Arkanasas / Ole Miss (post 55)

Tuesday - NIU / Toledo (post 65)

Wednesday - BG / Ohio (post 66)

Thursday - Buffalo / Kent (post 72) ; W Mich / Ball (post 88)

Thursday - Baylor / K St (post 92) ; App St / Ark St (post 98)

Thursday - Mizz / Miss St (post 99) / Fresno / Nevada (post 111)

Friday - UTEP/Rice (post 125) Temple/SMU (post 126)

Friday - BYU / SJ St (post 134)

Big 10 - Mich / Rutgers (post 159) Ohio St / Minn (post 160)

Request line - FIU / Charlotte (post 170)

Big 10 - Mich St / Neb (188) Wisc / Mary (193) Penn / NW (195)

Big 10 - Purdue / Illinois (197) Iowa / Indiana (199)

SEC - Ga / Kentucky (215) Fla / Vandy (219)

SEC - SC / Tenn (233) Aub / TAM (258) Bama / LSU (259)

Request line - MTSU / Marshall (273)

Request line - Memphis / Navy (285)

 

up next  4 more requests

 
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Posted: #287
Meeeeeeeeggggaaaaaaa


 
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Posted: #288
Thanks for all the write ups and picks mega!
 
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Posted: #289

Request Line

Hi Mega, Can you review Utah/Washington? I was leaning on the Under 44. Rain is also in the forecast at game time.

Thx..... 

 
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Posted: #290

Indy        

fuzzy  GL this wk

 

REQUEST LINE........Megalocks...."Still friends with Bloodbath Guy"

TCU 5.5 Okie St (76.5)

Megalocks line 6

Sagarin 3

Sagarin has this one a lot lower - but we always go with our line first since if we lose it is US that has to donate blood and semen for a month to pay for losing picks.

Pretty tempting to take a rolling TCU squad with maybe the best college football player at QB....They have had some close ones on the road tho - winning by 6 at Minn by 3 at TT...by 7 at K St....just think they are peaking at the right time but will be interesting to see how they navigate the rest of their schedule......Long time SUBSCRIBERS to our threads know that we have had a MAN CRUSH   on HC Gundy for a long time - like for real ONE losing ATS season since 2005 let that sink it for a while......Like how they are finding ways to win and have great options at qB......Pretty much can never fade Gundy might as well stab yourself in the face........Ultimate no play to us - did not really analyze the total b/c as you also know - these gigantic totals are so meaningless our supercomputers cannot handle them.....would want -3 to play TCU and +7 to play Okie St.

Summary. Pass.

mega

 
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Posted: #291

REQUEST line.........Megalocks...."Helping a $100 bettor lose $100 last week with the Florida TT under bet. All that matters is what we do next"

West Virginia 8 Texas Tech (79)

Megalocks line 7

Sagarin 5.5

West Virginia should be able to pick up some steam now - what a 4 game stretch - Oklahoma okie st Baylor TCU - now you could argue that they are worn out which is a legitimate concern but we think they could be in for a big game given that the Red Raiders give up points like it is going out style - they have given up a mind boggling 55 points + on 4 different occasions including 63 and 70 the last 2 games and none of those games were against Baylor or TCU....You know the way we roll - we hate playing on teams with literally no intention of playing defense no matter how good their offense is .....That week we gave out a 249789037523490759234875 star lean on Okie St vs TT for the same reason - at some point you have to stop the other team....and while WV D is not like the Okie St D - Texas Tech cannot be trusted IMO even though they are fun to watch.

Summary. No leanage......mega

 
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Posted: #292
Quote Originally Posted by kodiak:

Request Line

Hi Mega, Can you review Utah/Washington? I was leaning on the Under 44. Rain is also in the forecast at game time.

Thx..... 

I will see if I can get to that one tomorrow buddy but pretty backed up.....My gut tells me Washington not sure about the total - GL

 
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Posted: #293
 
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Posted: #294
Great work here mega, I've gone with your leans all week and have done well, I love your arky and under parlay thoughts this week but I think I have to pass on nc state, ty for ur hard work bubs
 
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Posted: #295
MEGA

I like the UGA/UK under play...not exactly a Snot Bubbler, but hopefully some good D combined with some poor O will equal about 47 points

I might be about 3weeks late to the party , but I have decided that UCF is fade material until further notice.  The grease fire that started in Orlando is a perfect excuse for the team to either give up, or start working for the man and lay down.  Either way , who would notice?  Tulsa leads FBS in offensive snaps per game, and me thinks they take advantage of the situation and score at will.....I'm not JUMPING OFF THE TOP ROPE W/ A FOLDING CHAIR, but I like it a LOT
GL as always bro
 
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Posted: #296
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

REQUEST LINE........Megalocks....."Moving lines and changing lives"

Memphis 9 Navy (64)

Megalocks line 7

Sagarin 8

One of the interesting things that nobody is talking about ? Navy is tied for first in their division - Houston - Memphis - Navy all 4-0. Now like for real....anyone wanna bet against Navy ??? We do have a lean here to the dog but will want 10+ to pounce. Up to 9 now.

Memphis is good. Let's face facts. Lynch is 18 TD 1 int. Good run D. Well coached. Here is the thing.....They have no experience facing the option and that does matter when you only have one week to prepare....sure they have been thinking about it - and probably doing some drills for a while - but seeing the Navy option at full speed with MAYBE the best QB they have had running it ....and one of our fav all time players....K Reynolds....is going to be very very difficult for Memphis.....Navy only loss to ND this year and that was the only game that they gave up more than 21 points.....Last week their D only gave up 62 rushing yards to a very good USF running team...but what worries us is the obvious - their pass D vs the Memphis passing attack....So despite running a lot of clock - that to us justifies the total well over 60.....If Lynch was mistake prone it would be one thing - but unless we see some fumbles here or there - Navy gonna have their hands full b/c the only offense with a pulse torched them =- ND. Sooooooo.....we lean Navy - 24-10 L34 ATS as road dog - 0-1 this yr....but the MATCHUP is just not what we want to see - in fact there might be a dozen teams that we would be worried about if we were Navy and this is one of them. Great passing team. Do not make mistakes.......And like we said Memphis has beat Ole Miss....BG...etc...are a legit top 20 team IMO.

Summary - lean Navy at +9. Those freakshows that actually like NCAA teasers it strikes us that +16 would be pretty safe. If the line hits 10 tomorrow we are gonna have a hard time not playing it. Right now just a lean.

mega


On my final leans sheet I wrote "Navy 10+"  so we are on the same page.   Memphis could be peeking ahead to next week at Houston too.   Backdoor always open too
 
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Posted: #297
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

REQUEST line.........Megalocks...."Helping a $100 bettor lose $100 last week with the Florida TT under bet. All that matters is what we do next"

West Virginia 8 Texas Tech (79)

Megalocks line 7

Sagarin 5.5

West Virginia should be able to pick up some steam now - what a 4 game stretch - Oklahoma okie st Baylor TCU - now you could argue that they are worn out which is a legitimate concern but we think they could be in for a big game given that the Red Raiders give up points like it is going out style - they have given up a mind boggling 55 points + on 4 different occasions including 63 and 70 the last 2 games and none of those games were against Baylor or TCU....You know the way we roll - we hate playing on teams with literally no intention of playing defense no matter how good their offense is .....That week we gave out a 249789037523490759234875 star lean on Okie St vs TT for the same reason - at some point you have to stop the other team....and while WV D is not like the Okie St D - Texas Tech cannot be trusted IMO even though they are fun to watch.

Summary. No leanage......mega


WVU stopped themselves with a case of the dropsies against TCU... they might catch a few of those this week, but those can be contagious so I'm going to chance the Red Raiders in the hopes that the defense scrounges up some sacks (WVU 110th in sacks allowed) and has the ball last.
 
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Posted: #298
just take the over in texas tech game and pray for points
 
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Posted: #299

foolish

degengambler  glad you are doing well so far buddy.....thx for checking in - GL tomorrow

Johnny ....always cracking me up.....Ya Tulsa looks pretty good to me as well UCF is God awful I still remember when they were good like yesterday god I am getting old.

BWS  ......Glad we are in sync with Navy - looks like the line is headed down sooooooooo I may not be in on the party....They are a handful but just not sure about that pass D want more of a cushion....I find the B12 so tough and ya - can see the TTech play for sure.....To me it is a nice ML play at the price....GL

 
 
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Posted: #300

ok I owe you clowns two more request line write-ups

- Cincy / Houston - just waiting on line movement

- UNC / Duke - gonna look at it in a sec while I watch the Friday night games

Will post these early tomorrow am as well as hopefully another pick or two. GL to all tonight ! MEGA

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