NCAA week 10

REQEUST line ....and the next pick

Cincinnati +9

Megalocks line 6

Sagarin 11

1. Cincy is playing very well right now; and really when you look back at their schedule have not done much wrong especially considering they were missing their starting QB for while.....Well has been great since returning from injury 15/15 last game and they have another hall of famer on the bench should they need it....Lost to Memphis on the road by 7.....then beat Miami.....tough trip to byu....then pistol-whipped UConn and UCF. ...Overall they have played a tougher schedule than Houston (#92 vs #124) and should not be catching DD; Which is not to say Houston cannot blow them out - but we like the dog here.

2. Cincy has a very balanced offense - #1 in the conf, #1 passing and #4 rushing....They have run the ball 343 times and passed 325 times excellent balance and they have more weapons than an NFL locker room.....They are ranked #11 in the NCAA in 3rd down conversions. The BIG issue is turnovers. Ranked #116 in turnover margin while Houston is #1. They are playing much safer football right now but we expect more than one bonehead turnover but think that 9 points is fair compensation. Now while Houston D is ranked #2 in the conference - Cincy is ranked #4....They do not get much pressure - but have athletes who can run like the wind and TACKLE IN SPACE and believe or not are ranked #4 in the NCAA in 3rd down D. Houston has a big edge on D - but this offense is so diverse and gets the ball out of the QBs hands quickly (most of the time) it is going to take some of the aggressiveness out of their players IMO.

3. Houston has a fantastic OL coach - but they are really hurting. They have started 6 different OL combos and last week had to start 3 freshmen and gave up a lot of TFL. The last 3 weeks Houston has played Tulane UCF and Vandy offenses - which are all basically a bucket of crap. Now they get Cincy. Their D is good but for real like for real - they are gonna be challenged.

4. Houston facing bad offenses: gave up 14 7 10 0....Houston facing good offenses gave up 24 31 24 28. We see Cincy easily getting in the 20s so Houston will need to score a lot of points to cover. Possible. Cincy will never be out of it.

5. Intangibles. Pressure is all on Houston. Crowd Will Be Rocking Guy surely remembers the home field beatdowns last year alone....losing by 20 to UTSA and losing to Tulane late in the season as 17 point favs.......Last 2 yrs games have been decided by 7 points each.....Finally - Houston has failed to cover once this year.....and that was barely.....They are well well over +100 points ATS so when you wonder why the line is "high" - or IF you do - When teams outperform the spread wk after wk after wk - the lines add a bit more cushion and this week we feel there are too many points up for grabs and will try it.

Ward is an amazing athlete and developing into a real star. Hopefully Cincy can stop him from going completely nuts.

Best of luck - as always play safe.

mega

REQEUST line ....and the next pick

Cincinnati +9

Megalocks line 6

Sagarin 11

1. Cincy is playing very well right now; and really when you look back at their schedule have not done much wrong especially considering they were missing their starting QB for while.....Well has been great since returning from injury 15/15 last game and they have another hall of famer on the bench should they need it....Lost to Memphis on the road by 7.....then beat Miami.....tough trip to byu....then pistol-whipped UConn and UCF. ...Overall they have played a tougher schedule than Houston (#92 vs #124) and should not be catching DD; Which is not to say Houston cannot blow them out - but we like the dog here.

2. Cincy has a very balanced offense - #1 in the conf, #1 passing and #4 rushing....They have run the ball 343 times and passed 325 times excellent balance and they have more weapons than an NFL locker room.....They are ranked #11 in the NCAA in 3rd down conversions. The BIG issue is turnovers. Ranked #116 in turnover margin while Houston is #1. They are playing much safer football right now but we expect more than one bonehead turnover but think that 9 points is fair compensation. Now while Houston D is ranked #2 in the conference - Cincy is ranked #4....They do not get much pressure - but have athletes who can run like the wind and TACKLE IN SPACE and believe or not are ranked #4 in the NCAA in 3rd down D. Houston has a big edge on D - but this offense is so diverse and gets the ball out of the QBs hands quickly (most of the time) it is going to take some of the aggressiveness out of their players IMO.

3. Houston has a fantastic OL coach - but they are really hurting. They have started 6 different OL combos and last week had to start 3 freshmen and gave up a lot of TFL. The last 3 weeks Houston has played Tulane UCF and Vandy offenses - which are all basically a bucket of crap. Now they get Cincy. Their D is good but for real like for real - they are gonna be challenged.

4. Houston facing bad offenses: gave up 14 7 10 0....Houston facing good offenses gave up 24 31 24 28. We see Cincy easily getting in the 20s so Houston will need to score a lot of points to cover. Possible. Cincy will never be out of it.

5. Intangibles. Pressure is all on Houston. Crowd Will Be Rocking Guy surely remembers the home field beatdowns last year alone....losing by 20 to UTSA and losing to Tulane late in the season as 17 point favs.......Last 2 yrs games have been decided by 7 points each.....Finally - Houston has failed to cover once this year.....and that was barely.....They are well well over +100 points ATS so when you wonder why the line is "high" - or IF you do - When teams outperform the spread wk after wk after wk - the lines add a bit more cushion and this week we feel there are too many points up for grabs and will try it.

Ward is an amazing athlete and developing into a real star. Hopefully Cincy can stop him from going completely nuts.

Best of luck - as always play safe.

mega

REQUEST line - the final chapter for this week 

thanks to everyone !

UNC 7.5 Duke (59)

Megalocks line 6

Sagarin 6.5

Lost in the insane last play loss to Miami last week is the fact that Duke has built a rock solid ACC football program well coached and some nice talent including the QB who we think is fantastic.....Our biggest worry - actually 2 - while originally we really wanted to play Duke 1) how much do they have in the tank mentally after the bazillion-OT game vs VT on the road followed by the DEBACLE in DURHAM  last week ?? 2) UNC is playing their best football of maybe the entire Fedora era and we really really do not like fading teams that are white hot unless getting tons of line value......Now UNC leads the division with 0 losses and Duke and Pitt are a game back - if UNC wins - they would really be in great shape to make the champ game notwithstanding some tough games left....Duke has UNC and Pitt back to back so they are looking good as well with a win today....even after that loss at Miami

Summary. Will not add it to the card - but public dog or not - still lean Duke at over a TD if you need a last game to throw in your degenerate 23 game parlay tickets. Sirk vs Williams should be a treat even tho Duke lost to Miami last week.

mega