Mega, Great week once again, keep it rolling man. Quick question and apologies as I'm sure you've answered this before but who do you get early lines with? I'm on bovada and find that they always wait till the last minute which has hurt me in the past. Do you have a book in particular that you favor?
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Mega, Great week once again, keep it rolling man. Quick question and apologies as I'm sure you've answered this before but who do you get early lines with? I'm on bovada and find that they always wait till the last minute which has hurt me in the past. Do you have a book in particular that you favor?
Miami leading tackler linebacker Raphael Kirby is out for the year with a knee injury...third linebacker lost this season. I know Florida teams are always deep but this doesn't help their cause any...
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Miami leading tackler linebacker Raphael Kirby is out for the year with a knee injury...third linebacker lost this season. I know Florida teams are always deep but this doesn't help their cause any...
You guys know the MEGALOCKS MANIFESTO when it comes to posting up plays - we post an available line so you guys can participate.....otherwise - what is the point ? In our opinion - this is not #facebook - "hey look at my shiny new boat !"....Having said that - for the SUCCULENT EARLY TASTERS you also know that you have to be following along Sunday afternoon because the lines move quickly. We saw a Clemson -2.5...We got Clemson -3 but when we went to post it was -4.....So that is the official line we use on Covers....very shortly after it was -5 and kept flying ......Many other games we liked flew so fast would have felt dirty ....almost filthy....posting them. .....So congrats - I know a couple of you guys got down - but our apologies if you did not....BOL is the best option for openers IMO.
We love our Canes - but Florida St and Clemson are on a different level.....Sagarin and ourselves both had the fair line quite a bit higher than market although we do see some -7s out there now. We would play it up to -6.5. No higher.
Clemson has a huge advantage defensively - and this was before the Miami leader tackler and senior captain LB Kirby was announced out as one of our ALERT SUBSCRIBERS pointed out....In yds/play defense - Clemson is #3 in the ACC - Miami is #13.....In defensive yds/carry - Clemson is ranked 3rd in the ACC and Miami is ranked #13th giving up almost an amazing 5 yds/carry....Both teams have good balanced offenses with very good QBs....But the Ds are not close - not to mention Watson has the ability to run as well as MATRICULATE in the passing game....Now Miami has been living off turnovers - #1 in the NCAA in turnover margin averaging +2 per game....And Watson has thrown 7 picks while Kayayayayaaaya has only thrown 1....If Clemson is sloppy with the ball and give the Canes 7-14 points off turnovers Miami will probably cover and maybe win....Do not see that as a likely scenario but just saying not saying just saying.....For some reason Miami has had a ton of trouble converting 3rd downs - ranked #114.....Clemson D is ranked #2 in 3rd down defense.....uh oh.
Clemson has scored 34+ on everyone other than Louisville away and ND. Miami has given up 20+ to every FBS team. Miami is going to score but we think over the course of the game Clemson makes more stops and pulls out the cover.
We would take it up to -6.5.
No guarantees. Play safe.
MEGA
up next TUESDAY game
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EARLY TASTER
Clemson -4
MEGALOCKS line 8
Sagarin 9.5
You guys know the MEGALOCKS MANIFESTO when it comes to posting up plays - we post an available line so you guys can participate.....otherwise - what is the point ? In our opinion - this is not #facebook - "hey look at my shiny new boat !"....Having said that - for the SUCCULENT EARLY TASTERS you also know that you have to be following along Sunday afternoon because the lines move quickly. We saw a Clemson -2.5...We got Clemson -3 but when we went to post it was -4.....So that is the official line we use on Covers....very shortly after it was -5 and kept flying ......Many other games we liked flew so fast would have felt dirty ....almost filthy....posting them. .....So congrats - I know a couple of you guys got down - but our apologies if you did not....BOL is the best option for openers IMO.
We love our Canes - but Florida St and Clemson are on a different level.....Sagarin and ourselves both had the fair line quite a bit higher than market although we do see some -7s out there now. We would play it up to -6.5. No higher.
Clemson has a huge advantage defensively - and this was before the Miami leader tackler and senior captain LB Kirby was announced out as one of our ALERT SUBSCRIBERS pointed out....In yds/play defense - Clemson is #3 in the ACC - Miami is #13.....In defensive yds/carry - Clemson is ranked 3rd in the ACC and Miami is ranked #13th giving up almost an amazing 5 yds/carry....Both teams have good balanced offenses with very good QBs....But the Ds are not close - not to mention Watson has the ability to run as well as MATRICULATE in the passing game....Now Miami has been living off turnovers - #1 in the NCAA in turnover margin averaging +2 per game....And Watson has thrown 7 picks while Kayayayayaaaya has only thrown 1....If Clemson is sloppy with the ball and give the Canes 7-14 points off turnovers Miami will probably cover and maybe win....Do not see that as a likely scenario but just saying not saying just saying.....For some reason Miami has had a ton of trouble converting 3rd downs - ranked #114.....Clemson D is ranked #2 in 3rd down defense.....uh oh.
Clemson has scored 34+ on everyone other than Louisville away and ND. Miami has given up 20+ to every FBS team. Miami is going to score but we think over the course of the game Clemson makes more stops and pulls out the cover.
lion - will look at that game after I do the Tuesday - Friday games
upside - yes - at first glance like that SD St under quite a bit a lot of free points off turnovers in the Boise game. good eye. not sure about side yet - GL !!
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Dank ......we use BOL for early openers
PGF - glad you like the addition
BWS
Vankiep ....gotta look into Memphis
jpurdy
Ron - would play it up to -6.5 GL
Bridge - lean T AM for sure
Puffkit - lean App St - nice intel
lion - will look at that game after I do the Tuesday - Friday games
upside - yes - at first glance like that SD St under quite a bit a lot of free points off turnovers in the Boise game. good eye. not sure about side yet - GL !!
Not crazy about this game to be honest - Seeing some 7s already and no way would want to lay that even though it is probably the right number to line.....Ark St has the better D and home field - and ULL has not done much at all BUT BUT - ULL has been running the ball well and getting sneaky good production from QB Jalen Nixon and have a super HC who just wins - that's all - including 4 straight bowl wins - and if you remember last year - they looked like trash early and turned it on down the stretch once conf play started - not saying that will happen - but we do not see the typical Knighten yet at QB for Ark St due to injury and both teams still undefeated - lol - in conference.....We smell something rotten in Denmark here and gonna wait to see what this line does....also intruiged by the total may go under if it is set really high.....On that note - I Only Look At Final Scores Guy should realize that last Ark St game which finished 49-31 was a bit misleading - 2 late def TD and get this only 345-302 total yards ??? - funny that there were 80 points scored in that hot mess of a game. Not saying just saying do some due diligence before pouncing.
Summary. No leanage yet. Would lean ULL getting 7.5. Waiting for total and would lean under a whopper number.
MEGA
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Vern
Arkansas St -6.5 ULL
Megalocks line 7
Sagarin 9.5
Not crazy about this game to be honest - Seeing some 7s already and no way would want to lay that even though it is probably the right number to line.....Ark St has the better D and home field - and ULL has not done much at all BUT BUT - ULL has been running the ball well and getting sneaky good production from QB Jalen Nixon and have a super HC who just wins - that's all - including 4 straight bowl wins - and if you remember last year - they looked like trash early and turned it on down the stretch once conf play started - not saying that will happen - but we do not see the typical Knighten yet at QB for Ark St due to injury and both teams still undefeated - lol - in conference.....We smell something rotten in Denmark here and gonna wait to see what this line does....also intruiged by the total may go under if it is set really high.....On that note - I Only Look At Final Scores Guy should realize that last Ark St game which finished 49-31 was a bit misleading - 2 late def TD and get this only 345-302 total yards ??? - funny that there were 80 points scored in that hot mess of a game. Not saying just saying do some due diligence before pouncing.
Summary. No leanage yet. Would lean ULL getting 7.5. Waiting for total and would lean under a whopper number.
Greetings Mega, am relatively new here and been following you for the last month or so. Really enjoy your analysis and appreciate all the work you do. I am a SMU alumni and follow the team very closely. Wanted to put this one out to you and your followers as well as get your thoughts.
SMU is 3-1 as an underdog (2-0 away dog) versus very strong opponents - Houston, ECU, TCU, Baylor. They put up a great fight in the first half of these games but don’t have the horses to keep up in the 2nd half (Chad Morris first year as HC and grabbed 3 or 4 skill position playmakers but not deep yet). Chad Morris’ game planning and great QB play (Matt Davis - Johnny Football backup @ TXA&M) keep them in the first half of these games:
Ø Houston – SMU down 7 due but were up 7 with 2 mins left in 1HHhH, lose by 21
Ø ECU – SMU up 2 at half but lose by 26
Ø TCU – SMU down 11 at half and lose by 19
Ø Baylor – SMU down 7 at half and lose by 35 (only game Baylor hasn’t covered this year)
Chad Morris off a bye with 2 weeks to prepare. Full game line vs. USF this week is already down 2 points this morning from +13 to +11 but think there is probably still value there. USF looking better now after a rough start to the season with wins over UCONN and Cuse in their last two. I think there will be value here in the first half. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them leading the game at half before their usual 2nd half fall off.
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Greetings Mega, am relatively new here and been following you for the last month or so. Really enjoy your analysis and appreciate all the work you do. I am a SMU alumni and follow the team very closely. Wanted to put this one out to you and your followers as well as get your thoughts.
SMU is 3-1 as an underdog (2-0 away dog) versus very strong opponents - Houston, ECU, TCU, Baylor. They put up a great fight in the first half of these games but don’t have the horses to keep up in the 2nd half (Chad Morris first year as HC and grabbed 3 or 4 skill position playmakers but not deep yet). Chad Morris’ game planning and great QB play (Matt Davis - Johnny Football backup @ TXA&M) keep them in the first half of these games:
Ø Houston – SMU down 7 due but were up 7 with 2 mins left in 1HHhH, lose by 21
Ø ECU – SMU up 2 at half but lose by 26
Ø TCU – SMU down 11 at half and lose by 19
Ø Baylor – SMU down 7 at half and lose by 35 (only game Baylor hasn’t covered this year)
Chad Morris off a bye with 2 weeks to prepare. Full game line vs. USF this week is already down 2 points this morning from +13 to +11 but think there is probably still value there. USF looking better now after a rough start to the season with wins over UCONN and Cuse in their last two. I think there will be value here in the first half. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them leading the game at half before their usual 2nd half fall off.
Yea what is up with USC being 3.5 point favs on Utah? I know Utah didn't play great last week but they still covered the spread and I think they are better than USC, even away.
Would love to hear your thoughts on the ECU-Temple game. Shocked vegas open ECU as the favorite, thought it would be Temple 3 point favs and was going to jump all over it
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Yea what is up with USC being 3.5 point favs on Utah? I know Utah didn't play great last week but they still covered the spread and I think they are better than USC, even away.
Would love to hear your thoughts on the ECU-Temple game. Shocked vegas open ECU as the favorite, thought it would be Temple 3 point favs and was going to jump all over it
Hope so buddy Can't always find one that meets all of our criteria but we are gonna dig for gold in them thar hills ! GL
fuzzy
Harvard welcome and great intel ! thanks SMU is an up and coming team appear to have the right HC and just need more athletes like you said esp on D. Not sure about their game this wk. GL !
EastCarolina - thoughts coming later today
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Quote Originally Posted by warcameagle56:
Mega,are u have crackpipe special this week?
Hope so buddy Can't always find one that meets all of our criteria but we are gonna dig for gold in them thar hills ! GL
fuzzy
Harvard welcome and great intel ! thanks SMU is an up and coming team appear to have the right HC and just need more athletes like you said esp on D. Not sure about their game this wk. GL !
Of course I'm biased but Huge Revenge game for ECU this Thursday against a team we should of man handled last year... not to mention to the Student Section will be rocking as we welcome a ranked opponent
38-24 is my prediction
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Of course I'm biased but Huge Revenge game for ECU this Thursday against a team we should of man handled last year... not to mention to the Student Section will be rocking as we welcome a ranked opponent
stay hot brother! I got killed by Western KY on thursday night. (There's your stab yourself in the face pick) but recovered nicely on saturday with Memphis, Sparty, and the Gators. GO "UCF"!! Go get em this week. thanks for all you do.
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stay hot brother! I got killed by Western KY on thursday night. (There's your stab yourself in the face pick) but recovered nicely on saturday with Memphis, Sparty, and the Gators. GO "UCF"!! Go get em this week. thanks for all you do.
Of course I'm biased but Huge Revenge game for ECU this Thursday against a team we should of man handled last year... not to mention to the Student Section will be rocking as we welcome a ranked opponent
38-24 is my prediction
"Student-section-will-be-rockin'"I took this when it opened as my first play. Good luck!
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Quote Originally Posted by Ecukingbuddy:
Of course I'm biased but Huge Revenge game for ECU this Thursday against a team we should of man handled last year... not to mention to the Student Section will be rocking as we welcome a ranked opponent
38-24 is my prediction
"Student-section-will-be-rockin'"I took this when it opened as my first play. Good luck!
UGA GL this wk my man....Had my Georgia hooded sweat on last Saturday could not get them more than 9 points
partles
dntn .....Clemson will cover if they do not give the game away with turnovers IMO GL !
Ecuking - see below
next pick
E CAROLINA -3
Megalocks line -4
Sagarin -2
As our dedicated SUBSCRIBERS and STALKERS know - we almost always take the team with the better defense....We looked at this one on Sunday at EC -1.5 and just did not do enough research to fully recommend it....Here is our rationale for "go time" now........Any one point can be argued but consider the totality of the points being made.....
1. EC peaking now and have played a much tougher schedule...Temple sched ranked #125 including the last 3 vs Charlotte Tulane UCF wtf.....EC has played at Florida at Navy at BYU and home to Va Tech ....They are battle tested and ready to deliver a peak performance IMO having been challenged some really good teams.
2. Temple's D is excellent. We all know that. But do you know who has more sacks/game despite playing a much tougher schedule?......THAT'S A BINGO.....East Carolina has more sacks/game than Temple despite the Owls getting 10 against Penn St and Hackenpuke and that disgusting OL.....FURTHER.....Temple has played 2 QBs that are better than you or I.....UMass QB threw for 393 and 3 TD in a TWO point win for Temple....Cincy QB Kiel drilled them for 427Y and 2 TD but the +4 in turnover margin was too much for Cincy to overcome......which brings us to....
3. E Carolina has been using 2 QB with a lot of success.....Kemp is like Dan Marino with a quicker release 10 TD 71%......Summers is like Carl Lewis but faster and he can also MATRICULATE in the passing game - 68% and 4 TD.....These guys are gonna keep Temple on their toes.
4. Last year Temple beat EC 20-10 but were OUTGAINED 428-135 ....5 turnovers just killed them......They teams/systems are very similar - Temple more experienced but this just in - their D was good last yr too - 17.5/game pts allowed.....Think that this MATCHUP favors EC.
Added bonus - EC has the pornstar Davis PLOWman at PK.
GL play safe. MEGA
(Note - Covers Bloodbath guy will be on Temple on Thursday - and despite his long-term 32% win percentage - it is possible that Temple covers the game; Fear not. Stare into the abyss and join the EC backers Worst case? We lose.)
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UGA GL this wk my man....Had my Georgia hooded sweat on last Saturday could not get them more than 9 points
partles
dntn .....Clemson will cover if they do not give the game away with turnovers IMO GL !
Ecuking - see below
next pick
E CAROLINA -3
Megalocks line -4
Sagarin -2
As our dedicated SUBSCRIBERS and STALKERS know - we almost always take the team with the better defense....We looked at this one on Sunday at EC -1.5 and just did not do enough research to fully recommend it....Here is our rationale for "go time" now........Any one point can be argued but consider the totality of the points being made.....
1. EC peaking now and have played a much tougher schedule...Temple sched ranked #125 including the last 3 vs Charlotte Tulane UCF wtf.....EC has played at Florida at Navy at BYU and home to Va Tech ....They are battle tested and ready to deliver a peak performance IMO having been challenged some really good teams.
2. Temple's D is excellent. We all know that. But do you know who has more sacks/game despite playing a much tougher schedule?......THAT'S A BINGO.....East Carolina has more sacks/game than Temple despite the Owls getting 10 against Penn St and Hackenpuke and that disgusting OL.....FURTHER.....Temple has played 2 QBs that are better than you or I.....UMass QB threw for 393 and 3 TD in a TWO point win for Temple....Cincy QB Kiel drilled them for 427Y and 2 TD but the +4 in turnover margin was too much for Cincy to overcome......which brings us to....
3. E Carolina has been using 2 QB with a lot of success.....Kemp is like Dan Marino with a quicker release 10 TD 71%......Summers is like Carl Lewis but faster and he can also MATRICULATE in the passing game - 68% and 4 TD.....These guys are gonna keep Temple on their toes.
4. Last year Temple beat EC 20-10 but were OUTGAINED 428-135 ....5 turnovers just killed them......They teams/systems are very similar - Temple more experienced but this just in - their D was good last yr too - 17.5/game pts allowed.....Think that this MATCHUP favors EC.
Added bonus - EC has the pornstar Davis PLOWman at PK.
GL play safe. MEGA
(Note - Covers Bloodbath guy will be on Temple on Thursday - and despite his long-term 32% win percentage - it is possible that Temple covers the game; Fear not. Stare into the abyss and join the EC backers Worst case? We lose.)
Mega, suoerb work this past week! Special early REQUEST LINE game: can you do a take on the Southern Miss/Charlotte game? Thanks in advance sir!
Lion! Swiss Miss blipped my radar too. Very curious what they say here and curious what the 49'er pass D lookin like these days...or any days.... Thanks for bringing this one up! Could this be Luda's Hand-me-down-Rocks?!?!?!?
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Quote Originally Posted by Lionmonster:
Mega, suoerb work this past week! Special early REQUEST LINE game: can you do a take on the Southern Miss/Charlotte game? Thanks in advance sir!
Lion! Swiss Miss blipped my radar too. Very curious what they say here and curious what the 49'er pass D lookin like these days...or any days.... Thanks for bringing this one up! Could this be Luda's Hand-me-down-Rocks?!?!?!?
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EARLY TASTER 
you also know that you have to be following along Sunday afternoon because the lines move quickly. We saw a Clemson -2.5...We got Clemson -3 but when we went to post it was -4.....So that is the official line we use on Covers....very shortly after it was -5 and kept flying 
......Many other games we liked flew so fast would have felt dirty ....almost filthy....posting them. 
.....So congrats - I know a couple of you guys got down - but our apologies if you did not....BOL is the best option for openers IMO.
....And Watson has thrown 7 picks while Kayayayayaaaya has only thrown 1....If Clemson is sloppy with the ball and give the Canes 7-14 points off turnovers Miami will probably cover and maybe win....Do not see that as a likely scenario but just saying not saying just saying.....For some reason Miami has had a ton of trouble converting 3rd downs - ranked #114.....Clemson D is ranked #2 
Dank ......we use BOL for early openers
welcome and great intel ! thanks SMU is an up and coming team appear to have the right HC and just need more athletes like you said esp on D. Not sure about their game this wk. GL !
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