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NCAA wk 1

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Posted: #76
MEGA!  I wont be around much but wanted to wish u luck.  U are one funny person and you know your sh$t
 
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Posted: #77
Funny bast$ard, not a funny person
 
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Posted: #78
 
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Posted: #79
I'm still waiting for your GOY reverse trap triangle square play
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:


you dropped some juicy intel on the houston game in the in-game thread  great work

 

Thanks MEGA!  GL

LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #81
Great thread Mega, new poster here. Will definitely be following.

Going back to the BG/WKU game, seems like the total has sky rocketed up to 60 from opening at 54.5. Is a play being considered on the under if that gets any higher?
 
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Posted: #82
Bol mega! How did you end last season?
 
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Posted: #83
thx guys  much appreciated

knox - we always try and find out WHY a line has moved because if we know why - and do not agree with the move - you may have a play. For instance sometimes an injury causes the move and we play against the overreaction. In this game's case - not sure why ? Have so many questions on this game that really won't want to force a play if you know what i mean....My gut tells me people are just realizing the BG is an offensive machine and WK D is gonna be horrible while at the same time - looks like BG D may be a notch down.....Think is what we think is happening but ONLY a guess....Could be a Scumbag Service releasing the OVER as a play but don't think those really start until today and tomorrow...GL

alkomtz - i commented on that earlier in the thread - GL this yr 
 
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Posted: #84
another play

Ohio St 14.5 Navy (55.5)

UNDER 55.5

So much good discussion out there on this game - really can see the case for betting either side - we like the under. Having a hard time seeing this game approach 60....It's a leap of faith - but we think that Ohio St will be VERY focused across the board and kick it up a notch due to the loss of QB Miller....When you add to the fact that on paper Ohio DL is sick sick sick good....Even though they are facing the masters of the option - Ohio St should be able to force Navy into at least a couple of 3rd and longs with their TIMELY PENETRATION into the backfield....We can see Navy moving the ball but having a hard time getting TDs....On the flip side - Ohio St weakness (other than secondary which Navy cannot exploit) is their OL - at least that is the report - and Navy has a good experienced D (for them)....Ohio St will be using at least 6 WR according to Urban....And their strength on offense will be the stable of RB....Especially until the timing of the WR/QB gets on track....Both teams have excellent P....Clock should be running most of the game....I mean anything can happen but we see a more defensive lower scoring game than most I guess....Even unlikely scores like 28-27 and 45-10 go under 55.5.....Sign us up 


mega
 
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Posted: #85
UCLA 21 Virginia (57.5)

UCLA is officially on our MAN CRUSH  list for 2014....They looked stacked.....This line may be a bit high we have the fair number closer to 17/18.....But the VA history of underperforming under this HC (17-27ATS) and their suspect QB play makes us lean UCLA even at this number just can't pull the trigger....On paper VA D looks improved - and they did play a nice game to open the season last yr - but it seems that when they play any team with a dynamic offense - UCLA qualifies - the blood flows in the streets.....Puzzler....gonna pass

 
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Posted: #86
Nebraska 21 FAU (51)

We have the fair number closer to 18.....Neb should be good this yr....They did win a ton of close games last yr tho and are less than .500 ATS as a HF under Pelini....they killed FAU 49-3 in 2009 but that Neb D was gross and only have up 10 pts/game that yr.....FAU looks like a scrappy team this yr - good D - smart QB.....Only gave up 47% completions last yr.....Our concern here would be the new HC....They are on a 17-7 ATS run inlcuding 11-2 as a road dog....Just reset time for those stats IMO as you have to assess the new regime....Line looks a bit high but we missed the early 23s that were out there might get interested again if the line creeps up toward 24 again.....Interesting tidbit that may mean something or nothing ....This could have been the Pelini Bowl but Bro is gone from FAU and who knows if the Bo-Meister will have some extra incentive to pour on some points....Having said that - we rarely put any stock in the "Head Coach wants to run up the score" rationale for laying a big number....Just find this particular scenario interesting....Pass for now slight lean FAU...No read on total

 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:


 hilarious ! thanks man - GL this yr ....Hopefully we will pick more winners than losers 


Bowling Green 7.5 WKU (57.5)

The Dino Babers era begins in Bowling Green....And let me tell you...that era could be good....or not....B Green was a little light at WR before Gallon was declared out but should still be set at QB/RB/OL....Should still score some points.....D on paper looks good but only 5 returning starters.....They are on a 25-14 ATS run and while we really hate the look of WKU on paper this yr - the spread might be a little inflated (?).....The total also looks a bit high to us but we have no read on WKU other than we are very skeptical that they can continue their run from last yr when they won 4 straight to end the season....Missing a former conference off player of yr and def player of year and a new HC.....QB who looks great one minute then brutal the next....hmmmmm....Gotta take a pass on this one would love to know if anyone has a strong conviction on this one....pass. 

The Jeff Brohm era at Western Kentucky University kicks off Friday.

WKU and its new head football coach takes on Bowling Green State and that team’s new coach Dino Babers. Brohm’s debut will be against the defending Mid-American Conference champion and this year’s preseason favorite.

Last year at this time, Brohm was WKU’s offensive coordinator under Bobby Petrino, preparing to face the University of Kentucky. Now the pressure and responsibility is solely on the 43-year-old rookie coach.

“I think you always have nerves,” he said. “I definitely have those nerves right now. You want your team to play well. You want all your hard work to pay off. You want them to see the results.”

Brohm will try to become the fourth WKU coach in the past five to win his debut. Jack Harbaugh won 17-12 at Illinois State in 1989. In 2003, David Elson defeated Union (Ky.) 51-3. Willie Taggart had a tough opening assignment and lost 49-10 at Nebraska in 2010. Last year, Petrino beat UK 35-26 in Nashville, Tenn.

These Hilltoppers will be taking on team that returns 16 starters from a squad went 10-4 last year. The biggest change was in the Bowling Green coaching staff. Babers replaces Dave Clawson who is now in charge of Wake Forest. Babers was previously at FCS Eastern Illinois which ran a relentless offense quarterbacked by Jimmy Garoppolo, a second-round NFL draft pick of the New England Patriots.

It’s essentially the same fastpaced system run by Baylor where Babers was an assistant before he joined Eastern Illinois in 2012. That style, five returning All-MAC players including tailback Travis Greene (a school record 1,594 rushing yards) equals a difficult opener for WKU.

“The fact that we’re playing a very good opponent is great for us,” Brohm said. “We get to see exactly where we stand right off the bat. It’s an exciting time.”

WKU has eight starters back on offense and five on offense from an 8-4 team.

 
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Posted: #88
Good luck fellow Ontarian
 
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Posted: #89
Keep it up Mega - as always, learning a lot in your thread.

And do take another look at Wazzou
 
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Posted: #90

boys

BandosWB - definitely lean Wazzou for sure - just never seem to get a proper read on them so probably gonna watch wk 1 game and go from there - GL this yr man

Boy these lines are tight. Have not seen anything this tight since the final scene of Dirty Filthy Nurses 7......not to mention the plot was very sketchy....

Marshall 24 Miami Oh (59.5)

Definitely lean Marshall in this over - gut tells us that "home field" wont mean much when the fans come dressed as aluminum benches....Having said that - from what I have read the program is pumped for the Martin era - and what we are worried about is pretty simple....Miami had the worst QB play maybe of any team since the invention of dirt - That makes the whole team look horrible because they don't move the ball and the D is on the field for 59 minutes a game....Looks like the new talent at QB will at least make them look like a football team - 15 RS...exp OL....Most probable scenario is a closer game than we think early and then M wins by 21-35.....Just cant pull the trigger yet .....  mega

 

 

 
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NW 11 Cal (60.5)

Vegas calling for a 36-25 type game - last yr was 44-30 game....MEGALOCKS stat of the day STOLEN from Steele....Cal has lost 16 straight games against FBS teams........Now we always say think of the context of the POINTSPREAD so you do get 11 points against a team that historically has trouble ATS as HF.....Just cant back a team that gave up 46 ppg last yr...they will score and NW missing a couple of weapons from last yr....Line looks perfect to us....Pass

BC 17 UMass (48)

Another lean to the fav - we love the BC HC.....BC a total rebuild tho especially on offense - and they are one of apparently 18 schools starting former Florida QBs..........MEGALOCKS score update from last yr - it is still Miami Fla 21 Florida 16 ....But we digress....UMass is a grease fire...Do get back HC who led them to 1-AA Nat Champ....Once again just too much uncertainty in this one but we give credit to anyone brave enough to play UMass....

 
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Purdue 10 W Michigan (53.5)

Seems to be some sharp semi reversed trap line action on this one....WM getting some play we have the line closer to 13....Purdue scored 15/game last yr and gave up 38 points......MEGALOCKS research TIDBIT update....stolen from Purdue message board......Purdue at one point last yr went A MONTH without RUNNING A PLAY in the red zone .....no way we can lay 10 points with this team even if we are getting "value".....It is yr 2 of the Hazell era so maybe they move up a notch??? The bonus is WM has a half-tard punk as HC and WM has a ton of freshman on the team - 16 or so including backups.....So not sure they will be ready wk1 ??? Then again they covered at Sparty last yr and they were 4-2 as a road dog last yr....mixed signals pass

 
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Posted: #93
Dont post much in your threads But im a big fan of yours



Have a great season bud
Everyday above ground is a good day - 83 @Damon102covers
 
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Posted: #94

Florida 36.5 Idaho (51)

We think Florida is gonna smack some people around this yr - QB gong show last yr and overall tons of injuries...They still have a ton of talent.....Now laying 36 is not our cup of tea but this one has super blowout written all over it....Idaho missing their top WR....We have the fair line right at 35....There is no lookahead scenario here for Florida as they have another creampuff next wk.....Idaho probably gonna be better this yr esp on the OL and DL....hmmmmm....still a strong lean to the Gators....Idaho did give up 80 61 59 59 in games last yr....Problem is that we always assume a team can get 7.....so Florida needs 45+ to cover at a minimum....Just cant go there yet but not impossible to see Fla get 3 def/ST TDs....pass for now but reserve right to add Florida later....

 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by Damon102:

Dont post much in your threads But im a big fan of yours



Have a great season bud

 

thx man ! GL this yr  just try to have some fun and provide information for everyone to make their own calls...We do our best to provide winning picks.

 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

 

thx man ! GL this yr  just try to have some fun and provide information for everyone to make their own calls...We do our best to provide winning picks.

i completely feel you...i appreciate for your time and efforts.


Everyday above ground is a good day - 83 @Damon102covers
 
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Posted: #97
Love the write-ups and analysis Mega. I like Boise as well.
Keep an eye on Nebraska - they have lost 3 starters to season ending injuries in their Fall camp - MLB, CB, and an OL - they will very much miss the defensive losses.
Nebraska will run the ball ÅLOT!!!  They will not be throwing the ball all over the place as they did with Martinez.  Do not believe you will see them scoring alot of points, especially in big games - their totals in big games likely will be lower.  GL.
 
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Posted: #98
Badger - thx for the intel ......excellent insight.....will be watching with interest - GL this wk
 
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Posted: #99
GL Mega.

Rutgers and Temple are two of the worst teams in college football.

 
 
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Posted: #100
Not crazy about the Boise pick - - curious to see what else you like in the next few days.  Love following the thread---
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