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NCAA wk 11

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Posted: #226
 
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Posted: #227
Off topic question...

Is there anything close to a MEGALOCKS on the NFL, NBA, CBB or NHL betting boards? 

So glad this board has ML 
 
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Posted: #228
with vt dropping and what appears that the public is all over them , does that mean a no play at the +2 that its at now?
 
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Posted: #229
btw much thanks to you Mega, i have had a pretty good season and your advice has made it better than average.. long time lurker just now posting...  (now if i can stay out of the Blackjack tables i can keep my winnings!!!)


 
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Posted: #230
Quote Originally Posted by Croot:

Off topic question...

Is there anything close to a MEGALOCKS on the NFL, NBA, CBB or NHL betting boards? 


Nope. In my opinion, college football is the easiest sport to cap. With college basketball second. 

 
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Posted: #231

Sorry Mega

I would guess top 3  are

ok st -14 @ Ia st,

Utah -5 @ Az

Okla  + 3 1/2 @ baylor

 

 
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Posted: #232
Hey mega thanks for the picks.. Really enjoy reading your material.. Would you take vtech at +2
 
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Posted: #233
Wow.. been killing the bookie with your write-ups so far! Looking forward to your actual picks
 
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Posted: #234
Quote Originally Posted by TexanRook:

Mega,
First and foremost you are the man. Ive been following your picks all year and have made a good chunk of change.

That being said, Im still a beginner and pardon my ignorance for asking this question:

How do I bet TT Miss St. (-21). The sportsbook that I use, Im only seeing a total o/u for both teams. Bookie is only giving me a o/u as well.

Thanks again!

 

try ...props......and then...... team props

 
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Posted: #235

Next pick

Wash St +10.5

Megalocks line 7

Sagarin 11

Every week we get asked about Wash St - which is cool - because sadly we do not get a chance to see many of their games....Just do not have a feel for this team generally. You know we rarely play on teams like this - but - like last wk with Cincy vs Houston - we always feel better when getting more than a TD especially if we like the matchup or something else about the game....especially line value.

UCLA has destiny in their hands. Win out and they go to the Title game. Will not be easy. But they have the talent to do it. Last 2 games they played a couple creampuffs were outgained by almost 150Y  at home to Colorado in a 4 pt win - then did what everybody seems to be doing - curb-stomp Oregon St. 41-0.

Wash St has only 3 losses. Losing margins ? 7 6 and 2. The Stanford one particularly interesting because they outgained Stanford 442-312 but kept settling for FG and then Hogan started running wild and Stanford came back. Now UCLA is giving them 10.5 ? Falk is having a stupid incredible season at QB for Wash St and Wash St D is not as bad as usual either. #2 in the P12 in TFL. Doing enough to slow people down although let's be honest - the UCLA running game is going to have little problem putting up 250+ rushing. Question is - will that be good enough to cover 10.5 ? Not a great sign that UCLA has dominated the series recently. But this is not yo momma's Wash St team.

One of things we point out from time to time - that the difficulty in being 100% Number Cruncher Guy in NCAA football is that often numbers are "smushed" together to make conclusions but there are so many variables in football and so FEW GAMES to get a decent sample that it makes us laugh sometimes to see Mainframe Geek Spreadsheet Guy come up with final scores based on calculations driven by numbers that should not ever be "smushed" together. Of course - the later the season goes - the more reliable the numbers get RELATIVELY speaking because there are more games to look at - but you still need to try to interpret the stats and boxscores. Why do we mention this? Well UCLA is rated as the #1 pass D in the P12 in terms of opp QB Rating. We like that stat - but we always check to see who the team has played. UCLA has played a couple of actual real living breathing QBs and they all did what they usually do. Cal. Arizona St BYU even Colorado. BUT they also played some PURE FILTH at QB which when you mix it all up and "smush" it together - makes it appear UCLA has a bigger adv than they do. Just IMO....They played VA (barf) UNLV (3 QB all barf) Ariz (QB got hurt) Oregon St (barf).

We think that Falk - 70% 33 TD 7 INT.....will MATRICULATE enough in the passing game allowing his guys to make plays IN SPACE enough to cover the 10.5 even though The Rosen One and the running game for UCLA will be a handful.

GL....mega

 

 
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Posted: #236

THREAD SUMMARY 


Picks

Virginia Tech +3.5

Miss St TT under 21


Order of write-ups

Tuesday - Ohio / Kent (post 9)  Toledo / C Mich (post 11)

Wednesday - BG / W Mich (29)  Buffalo / NIU (31)

Thursday - ULL / S Ala (45)  V Tech / G Tech (65)

Friday - USC / Colorado (88)

SEC - Mizz / BYU (96)  LSU / Ark (101)

SEC - Kent / Vandy (103)   Fla / SC (106)

SEC - Ga / Auburn (113)

SEC - Alabama / Miss T (115)

Request - Cincy / Tulsa (145)

Request - Ga S / Troy (172)   Okie st / Iowa St (174)

Request - Okla / Baylor (180)

Request - Wash St / UCLA (235)


NEXT UP - REQUESTS  and...LAST SEC GAME  

 
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Posted: #237
Mega.....just a note that our fav pesky mw qb (and former crack pipe winner!) cam coffman back in action for wyo this week. They are +24.5 at sdst......might be a uninteresting game for sdst and their plodding style doesnt lend well to being big favs...although they do have a full head of steam right now. 'We're pumped bc our spunky leader is back which makes us nearly mediocre' guy will be in attendance. Gonna watch that line to see how much more i can get........
 
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Posted: #238

SORRY REPOST - trying to do too much at once

 

THREAD SUMMARY 


Picks

Virginia Tech +3.5  (would not play below 3)

Miss St TT under 21 (would not play below 21)

Wash St +10.5 (would not play below 10)

 


Order of write-ups

Tuesday - Ohio / Kent (post 9)  Toledo / C Mich (post 11)

Wednesday - BG / W Mich (29)  Buffalo / NIU (31)

Thursday - ULL / S Ala (45)  V Tech / G Tech (65)

Friday - USC / Colorado (88)

SEC - Mizz / BYU (96)  LSU / Ark (101)

SEC - Kent / Vandy (103)   Fla / SC (106)

SEC - Ga / Auburn (113)

SEC - Alabama / Miss T (115)

Request - Cincy / Tulsa (145)

Request - Ga S / Troy (172)   Okie st / Iowa St (174)

Request - Okla / Baylor (180)

Request - Wash St / UCLA (235)


NEXT UP - REQUESTS  and...LAST SEC GAME  

 
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Posted: #239
Quote Originally Posted by Croot:

Off topic question...Is there anything close to a MEGALOCKS on the NFL, NBA, CBB or NHL betting boards? So glad this board has ML

Pappadoc and cardfanatic have both been great in nfl and NBA this year but there's no analytical write ups like there is with megalocks
 
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Posted: #240

JBL - my fav is Sooners +3.5  sorry in advance .....GL !!!

dadale

dogs

dank

dodgy - that is what we do - move lines and change lives

walbanger - THANKS !!!!! appreciate the kind words - GL

Brian - would not play VT at +2. Sorry. If you want some small potatoes action try VT ML. GL

Vegaz  

slomotion

puffkit  as always great intel you freak - I think you are stalking Wyoming football players  Gonna look into that one

 
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Posted: #241
I knew you were going to wave the finger () concerning BYU @ Mizzou...but luckily I also follow train's crazy azz!

 Train just refinanced his house so he could finally be the triple-leverage bet against race riots guy 
 
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Posted: #242
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Next pick

Wash St +10.5

 

Was worried when i glanced the stats on this one and UCLA had never really been beat up in the pass. Stan beat up the run, ASU stopped perkins cold but wasn't sure where WAZU would make a game of this one. I have to expect Wazu also adds 100+ rushing whether they want to or not. Hundo mark seems to be the rush yard floor for UCLA and an infinite ceiling.

I will add that #Pac12refs might have some normalization in store for Wazzu if you didn't catch their interpretation last week of Rule 4-1-2-B-1 also known as the "5th Down for a Touchdown After a Turnover on Downs Reversal do to Improper Whistling" rule... that ref is suspended this week. It didn't cost ASU the game directly but significantly changed the circumstances. I'm jumpin on Wazu now. 

 
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Posted: #243
Great, Great logic and insight on your selections. On the surface I agreed with you on the Miss St TT under. However, after taking a closer look, my median TT for Miss St turns out to be 21.16 for this matchup (basically the same as the books). Recent history between the 2 teams screams under 21, but this could be negated by a very difficult game, and the nearly flawless performance by Alabama last week.  It may be nearly impossible to duplicate that type of intensity and execution in back to back games. I'm passing this one, but 100% rooting for you.

Great picks, Great logic, and Good luck.

Shirley 
 
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Posted: #244
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

bridge - really like S Miss at first glance 


Line down to -7 now. Very curious move with the hook dropping off when almost certainly the money was already favoring S.Miss huge. Rice just tanked to Utep for god sake and lost to S.Miss by among other notable findings in the review on my thread. Not sure if i'm walking into an ambush but the Fishey Radar is pinging rather than cha-chinging....
 
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Posted: #245

degen

dodgy

Bridge - yes i did see that; .......Wash St has been so competitive particularly lately hard to see them not having a shot to win SU heading into the 4Q....HOT TAKE....Their QB may be even better than we think and just a SOPH

Shirley  excellent post and yes i agree that Bama off the big one vs LSU and Miss St just waiting after playing some relatively easy games....In the end - the deciding factor was that I have seen 6 Bama games this yr and that 2nd half vs LSU was wow wow wow the intensity and focus of the OL after each play they just look like they are on a mission. BOL this week !!

 
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Posted: #246

*** and per post 245 - to add to that - the Bama OL / run game comes into play on the TT under b/c it will limit the number of times Miss St gets the ball and will keep Bama D fresh ***

REQUEST LINE........Megalocks...."Making the impossible - possible"

Army 2.5 Tulane

Megalocks line 3

Tulane 2

One of the reasons we like the REQUESTS is that it keeps us sharp getting to look at games we probably would have passed over and it keeps our biases in check.

This is a DUNGFEST ......But like my pal WahooS likes to say - "They all count"......so if you can find gold in THEM THAR HILLS.....you go for it.

Army is 2-7 and are just a hot mess right now and it all starts at QB....Bradshaw is the better athlete but is not an option QB right now IMO whereas Schurr is a crafty senior who may fumble every 3rd play but at least he moves the chains....If he doesn't play vs Navy it will be even more of a laugher than normal IMO.....SOOOOOOOO......home gamers - if you are gonna play Army we recommend do not play if Bradshaw starts. They both may play - but - Tulane held Navy in check for 291 TOTAL
YARDS........and here is another interesting SUCCULENT TIDBIT from our AAC INSIDERS......This will be Tulane's 3rd game vs an option team this yr.....and like we said - they handled the Navy option well a couple weeks ago.....On the flipside - Tulane's offense has scored 10 7 14 13 3 last 5 weeks. Barf.

Summary. As good as Army's wins over Bucknell and E Michigan look now way we back them as favs especially if Bradshaw starts. Tulane cannot move the ball and Army D ok.

Lean under would go as low as 42.5. No lean on side.

MEGA

 

 
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Posted: #247
@Mega - if your request line is not too long, can you take a look at Utah -6 over AZ?  I follow the pac-12 and I identified 2 picks this week....Wazzu +10 was one, and Utah was the other.

Posted my write-up in another thread but here it is: Arizona has not impressed me one bit.  They are #102 against the run surrendering 178.9 yards/game and 4.4 ypc.  It's interesting that Utah actually averages those same numbers running at 179.7 yards per game and 4.4 ypc!  Safe to say Utah should have some good success on the ground.  On the other side of the ball, Arizona is a run heavy team, #7 in the country with 244.5 yards/game and 5.5 ypc.  Utah counters w/ a strong run D at #17 in the country 114.3 yard/game and 3.4 ypc.  I look at the Arizona O going against the Utah D as a wash and the Utah O going against the AZ D as a big match up in our favor.  Lastly, Utah special teams always kills it so another advantage there.  All in all, Utah is a winning team that knows how to execute, Arizona is not.  Liking the fairly short line at -6.

Would LOVE LOVE LOVE to get your thoughts on this.
 
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Posted: #248
Quote Originally Posted by shirley-jester:

Great, Great logic and insight on your selections. On the surface I agreed with you on the Miss St TT under. However, after taking a closer look, my median TT for Miss St turns out to be 21.16 for this matchup (basically the same as the books). Recent history between the 2 teams screams under 21, but this could be negated by a very difficult game, and the nearly flawless performance by Alabama last week.  It may be nearly impossible to duplicate that type of intensity and execution in back to back games. I'm passing this one, but 100% rooting for you.

Great picks, Great logic, and Good luck.

Shirley 


I will say this, Dak is gonna play very well I think -BUT- with no run game, they will have to play careful and pick their spots.. If you want to beat Bama, you need to control the clock and keep the game close in the 4th quarter. 2 things Dan Mullen knows to be fact 1) he's not going to blow Bama out. 2) he's not gonna run with any success.. So how's he gonna win? Control the clock and field position and don't turn the ball over. If Dak can throw the ball between 25-35 times and have some 3-4-5yrd QB runs, then State has a great shot in winning this game.. On the other side, Saban knows 2 things for a fact 1) his offense has been terrible in this game since he's been there 2) a close 4th quarter game will make his team nervous.. This means Saban will want to control the clock and score , score, score.. With both teams wanting to control the clock, and Miss St being 1 dimensional, I'd say a 17-14 / 20-13 / 24-20 / 27-21 type game is way more probable than a 31-24 is.. This is gonna be another war in the trenches.. And Saban will blitz a ton in this game. He will also play a lot of combo coverage like he did vs A&M to force State to drive the entire field and earn it, no cheap ones.. So this could be a lot of FGs type game. I have a very bad feeling about this game. Just seems like Dak is gonna have a Super Man type game. But I still feel the under is the best play in this game.
 
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Posted: #249
Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:


Line down to -7 now. Very curious move with the hook dropping off when almost certainly the money was already favoring S.Miss huge. Rice just tanked to Utep for god sake and lost to S.Miss by among other notable findings in the review on my thread. Not sure if i'm walking into an ambush but the Fishey Radar is pinging rather than cha-chinging....

buddy when i see line movement i do not like AND do not understand i run for the hills almost nothing i do more than that helps win %

 
 
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Posted: #250

CalBear - sure i will look at that one buddy -  Have one more original request to get to then will look and see what else is in the thread.....On first glance agree 100% on Utah.

KingBama - great post buddy - Agree on the under - i was surprised it opened where it did - GL !

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