All Forums | College Football

NCAA wk 12

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 21505
Posts: 99
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #1
freaks 

2-0 last wk overall total up to 28-15 on the yr hope to finish strong. Scary looking card - it looks like there are 6-7 huge "value" plays but last time we saw that we got buried but gonna continue to take our best plays and see what the hell happens.

hope you guys are enjoying the season - setting up to be an epic final month or so before bowl season....We don't think Bama gets enough credit for week in and week out no matter who they play just taking care of business. One of the most underrated 2-3 yr runs in our opinion but don't wanna turn this into a soap opera thread just think they are awesome (no person).

As we said about a month ago - there is a very deep roster of very talented cappers on here  Sadly - still a lot of misleading BS that makes us want to puke at times but over our decade here - we have noticed that the Covers Nation always smokes it out eventually.

Random thoughts on games for your reading pleasure or pain - and hopefully you can help smoke out some wins for us

 BG 10 Ohio (49)
we have the line at 7....Sag at 8.5ish....line makes sense given ohio got blown out in a fix that would make W Kentucky and Hawaii blush.....Super strong under trends for both teams at play but line seems about right would get interested in the 50s....A bit of perceived value in BG but not gonna back Ohio given their D is much worse and they do not take care of the ball - 81 in t/o margin and BG #26...BG #2 in RZ D as well.....can see a 7 pt BG lead into the 4Q then a random play determining the cover.

no opinion as of now......slight lean to dog and under


mega



 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #2
 Toledo 4 Buffalo (54)
Buffalo on an epic ATS run that has almost exploded the MEGALOCKS supercomputer complex....approx 120 points beating the line last 6 games....have beat the line by DD every game other than truck at Baylor....SICK....We had them as a 245823490 unit STEAM PLAY CRACK PIPE SPECIAL in wk 1 but sadly have not rode them enough lately......Bottom line - we have the fair line slightly lower and so does Sag....Think Buffalo may have to earn every cover they get from this point on.....More strong under trends on this one and think we may go under in this one for small....See 54 out there....L6G buff has allowed 12 14 0 3 21 3....Wont go large due to Toledo ability to MATRICULATE the ball down the field....hit 500Y 3 times this yr and 700Y last wk....Both teams good at taking care of the ball...Big road test for Buffalo...Gonna pass on the side - will play small on under.


Small degen play on under 54 Buff/Toledo

mega
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #3
 Clark Kent 16.5 Miami Dung (46.5)
no way we can play Miami - had small degen cash on them last wk as FH +14 and watched them melt like the wicked witch of the west after being down 10-3 and having the ball mid 2Q....Reminded us of the time we found pubes in our birthday cake. .....We have the fair line right where it is - Kent has been a grease fire this yr - Could be a Hawaii style MACtion FIX gonna stay clear.

no opinion


 NIU 6.5 Ball (69.5)
Both teams show strong ATS trends - N at home - B an outstanding road record ATS and they are a very professional looking team who is tempting as a dog....NIU off 3 wins vs creampuffs - think they will have their hands full...Sadly when we ran our numbers and matrix of factors came up with 7 pt spread so gonna but Ball on only our small degen play list and wait for a 7....Think we will get it.....Ball stronger with the pass N stronger with the run and do not like taking the passing team unless getting enough points.....At first we thought total was too high but NI has played more than a few in the 70s and 80s...Ball can sling it....but their last 4 totals 51 55 66 68....pass on total.

small degen play on Ball St (waiting for 7)

mega


 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #4
marshall 14 Tulsa (62.5)
Tulsa in the #shitterbigtime and trying out new QBs....Gut says Marshall rolls but we have line closer to 9-11 range and Marshall below .500SU and ATS on the road this yr....mind you they are scoring like an NBA team at a Kardashian family reunion.....49 61 56 pts scored last 3 games.....hmmmmm...gonna pass not even sure tulsa gets enough to make total enticing marshall D has its moments

 no opinion


 clemson 10 ga tech (57.5)
sorry clemson just not a great fade they are sound in all phases and take care of the football Boyd's last bad decision might have been 3 yrs ago - like that guy....GT never know what you are gonna get - play some good ones but been trucked a couple times on the road vs good teams miami and byu....last 2 games at clemson 47-31 and 31-17.....total looks about right maybe slightest of leans to under...but realistically gonna wait for an in game play

no opinion


mega
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 12745
Posted: #5
love this thread, BOL this week
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2011
Posts: 1804
Posted: #6
keep it going mega. can't wait to hear your take but sdsu/hawaii but that's the last game of the week so i'll tune into page 4 or 5 later.
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #7
thx boys 

 UCLA 2.5 wash (62)
boy this is a close one - we and Sag both have line right about where it is ....teams have both played similar sched strength...both teams pretty close statistically off and def in yards per play O and D almost identical...no take on the total....looks tight....but we are gonna go small on wash if we can get 3.....Think that will be worth a degen shot - yes banged up a bit and yes upset Az last wk but they are not Wash - wk before - Colorado was pretty much equal in the stats - Col had more FD 26-18...UCLA more yds 412-381...Wash has looked better vs Stan than UCLA - whooped AZ mind you at home....maybe its we have really liked this W team from day 1....Real thing that tipped it over? UCLA QB Hundley is great - but really - right now he is pretty much the offense - where Wash has a lot more weapons - Sankey 1300 yd rush and a multitude of weapons to MATRICULATE the ball in the passing game - just think they have more football players on the football field making football plays.....going small since as noted it is tight see a slight ATS edge to Wash and will go in ML dog parlays

update

plays
(none)

small degen plays for freaks only - expect anything

- Buff under 54
- Wash (want +3 - waiting)
- Ball St (want +7 - waiting)

mega
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #8
 TNT 

I'll go against my process and look at Hawaii next

I can tell u this. It will be Hawaii or nothing. Bet against Hawaii and the mafia at home u might as well stab yourself in the face. I will also look at total. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 1196
Posted: #9
"Scoring like a NBA team at a Kardashian family reunion"…Genius

Man MEGA, you provide so much value, entertainment and a winning capper. I thank you very much for taking the time to share your abilities. I love reading your write-ups. It is my favorite part of the week.
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Vituperate:

"Scoring like a NBA team at a Kardashian family reunion"…Genius

Man MEGA, you provide so much value, entertainment and a winning capper. I thank you very much for taking the time to share your abilities. I love reading your write-ups. It is my favorite part of the week.


Thx man !!!!!

We love doing it. Learn as much as u can from everyone and play safe.  Money management is 80% of the battle long term. GL
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2008
Posts: 22444
Posted: #11
Good luck buddy! 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2007
Posts: 1278
Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

 Toledo 4 Buffalo (54)
Buffalo on an epic ATS run that has almost exploded the MEGALOCKS supercomputer complex....approx 120 points beating the line last 6 games.....Wont go large due to Toledo ability to MATRICULATE the ball down the field....hit 500Y 3 times this yr and 700Y last wk....Both teams good at taking care of the ball...Big road test for Buffalo...Gonna pass on the side - will play small on under.
Hey Mr. MegaLocks, thanks for the information.  However, doesn't this line strike you oddly (I know Toledo is 4-0 at home) but given the ATS cover last 6 by Buffalo, and how they're actually visiting dogs (last time was +2 vs UConn), what are we missing here?
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #13
Thx guys


daran. Toledo is a very good MAC team and have one of the best HF advantages in the conference when they have a competitive team. Also Buffalo is still not a "name" school. IMO that is "why" not saying that it makes sense   Buffalo has every shot to win but this is their toughest test since wk2. 
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #14
We have an exciting new strategy!!

Play 30 pt NCAA teasers for 50 units. If we lose and take all you losers with us don't worry. Next day we will play them for 500 units. Lose again. No worries dipshits. We go 8000 units. Lose more. No worries. 100000 units. Just get your chemistry set out and create more units!! Then go to the bank and tell them you are paying the mortgage in units and not cash. They will gladly accept units. Finally - when we lose - we will say we won and suck more of you losers in! Non stop winning. That's what we do. 



 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 3124
Posted: #15
Good Luck this week.  Not sure so keep this between us, but I heard .Hot Carl was going to be on "dancing with the stars".  
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2008
Posts: 4651
Posted: #16
Good thread as always 
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 19113
Posted: #17
Best Of Luck 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 3392
Posted: #18
Buff/Tol total now at 56. 
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #19
thx guys 

area - Hot Carl is gonna be on Oprah

bolts - ya saw that - we got our 54 for small degen - sometimes our small plays we get down too soon...given that movement - i think if anyone likes the under keep waiting 

 ole miss 29 troy (67)
we never play a team like troy as fav - but - as we saw last wk in our 4523790857234890 star play - they can hang with big spreads as dogs....history shows at SEC games 3-2L5 ATS as big road dogs at SEC....Given that Ole Miss is in a sandwich situation - big game next wk - cant see Ole Miss keeping interest for 60 min in a blowout - and - troy never quit against ulm - played well last wk on the road....Margins of victory in Troy games throwing out Miss St blowout and FCS game - 12 3 1 5 7 7 6...we also have the fair line closer to 22-23....gonna wait for 30 and take small action on dog

small degen lean to Troy - waiting for 30

Cincy 1.5 rutgers (52.5)
pretty strong under trends for both teams and last 2 meetings between these 2 teams - 10-3 and 20-3 snot bubblers in favor of Rutgers...Issue we see is this Rutgers team so banged up and dont trust their D to hold cincy to less than 24 this yr - sooooooooooo - 52.5 probably a bit high but rutgers such a tough team to get a read on....slight lean cincy but as noted lost last 2 convincingly to rutgers - cincy the better team but gonna pass on this one

no opinion

Oklahoma 24.5 iowa st (49)
slight lean to oklahoma but the fair line closer to 17-18....cant lay this lumber with an offense like this....problem?? iowa st QB out which is a big problem something called a Rohach this wk is getting a start on the road.....Sooners have owned their azzes according to Steele lost 14 str avg score 32-9...tempted to try over but statistically iowa st D worries us and sooners can pour it on at home when the game starts getting away - pass

no opinion


update

plays (none)

small degen action plays equivalent to burning money
- buff under 54
- wash (want 3)
- Ball st (want 7)
- Troy (want 30)

mega




 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #20
** meant in writeup tempted at sooners UNDER **
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #21
play 1 
hawaii over 57.5

This analysis was done by request - like the fat guy at the karaoke bar who sings Bette Midler tunes - we will do anything to please the masses 

On the side - well we have the fair line pretty much where it is - yes hawaii is horrid - but at home - lost by 5 10 17 7 to fresno sj usc and col st - not bad....and if you bet against hawaii at home - just stop betting even tho sd st tons better - we get it - just sayin

The total at 57.5 looks nice. L6 hawaii totals - 79 64 76 63 57 70...last 2 sd st totals - 65 64....home games for hawaii 9-2 over L11....hawaii 108 ranked D and 22 pass - SD st has a very good run D for the MW conf and hawaii will be forced to pass - SD St giving up chunks in the passing game - and hawaii has shown they can throw it when needs - SS 17 TD passes at qb....finally overall - sd st 6-3 over 57.5 this yr and hawaii 5.4 over 57.5.....Dont see much punting in this one - but we know one thing - the score could be 37-20 at half and still go under if the refs get the "Call"  

GL ,,.....mega
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2011
Posts: 1804
Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

play 1 
hawaii over 57.5

This analysis was done by request - like the fat guy at the karaoke bar who sings Bette Midler tunes - we will do anything to please the masses 

On the side - well we have the fair line pretty much where it is - yes hawaii is horrid - but at home - lost by 5 10 17 7 to fresno sj usc and col st - not bad....and if you bet against hawaii at home - just stop betting even tho sd st tons better - we get it - just sayin

The total at 57.5 looks nice. L6 hawaii totals - 79 64 76 63 57 70...last 2 sd st totals - 65 64....home games for hawaii 9-2 over L11....hawaii 108 ranked D and 22 pass - SD st has a very good run D for the MW conf and hawaii will be forced to pass - SD St giving up chunks in the passing game - and hawaii has shown they can throw it when needs - SS 17 TD passes at qb....finally overall - sd st 6-3 over 57.5 this yr and hawaii 5.4 over 57.5.....Dont see much punting in this one - but we know one thing - the score could be 37-20 at half and still go under if the refs get the "Call"  

GL ,,.....mega



 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2013
Posts: 194
Posted: #23
Hey MegaLocks so you don't think Marshall is a good play then at ------14? They too suspect on the road? for some reason that game caught my eye but perhaps its because Marshall been puttin up numbers.
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #24
Ya buddy it's just me but until Marshall plays the same way on road gonna pass. Can see the logic in M tho. GL
 
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 18138
Posted: #25
 penn st 22 purdue (44.5)
have the fair line closer to 17-18....no way we can lay 22 with penn st - it seems to us the lack of depth starting to cause some issues - and will not play purdue - just a sack of #totalshit....so gonna play the total here - at first glance may seem to be a snot bubbler - but purdue this yr in FBS games is 7-1OVER 44.5 points this yr - penn st 5-4 over...penn st 7-2 over last 9 home....bottom line - one really bad D and one fairly bad D...and penn st can score against crap teams...not going full unit since purdue has scored 7 0 0 14 L4G....Purdue got rFm QB Appleby in the game last wk - maybe a spark for their offense - we think if they get 7-14 this goes over 44.5.

small degen play purdue over 44.5
All Forums | College Football
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.