A couple of good write-ups out there on this one. Friend of the show abizzo has some good thoughts for sure.
Auburn is good - we are just talking about Auburn -4. Can Ga win or just keep it close?
You can make a case for Auburn - but this is what we are basing the pick on. Follow or fade away....1) Auburn is one-dimensional on offense whereas Ga is balanced.....Dont think Auburn will be able to MATRICULATE in the passing game - Ga is ranked 3rd in the SEC in run D yds/carry and 4th in yds allowed....2) Auburn has only played 2 teams with passing efficiency in the top 40....LSU (loss)....T AM - won but gave up a boatload of yds - over 600 - and lets face it T AM might as well not even put guys on the field on D....Murray we have no doubt will have success....Gurley back only helps the run game.....3) pressure - this is subjective but our view is that the pressure is on Auburn since they need to win or the Bama game means a lot less....Also Auburn is now the hunted and not the hunter.....Now we know Crowd Will be Rocking Guy and They Have to Win so They Will Guy will pound Auburn - but we think 4 points is a lot to give Ga....4) so much hate for Richt but he has proven experience winning big SEC road games - 33-11L44 SU.
GL freaks......mega
update
plays - max 2% of bankroll if dumb enough to tail
- hawaii over 57.5
- georgia +4
small degen coin toss money burners for action/...0-2 so far
- wash (waiting....want 3)
- w va -6.5...hate this one already god we hate betting favs
- troy (waiting....want 30)
- purdue over 44.5
- nc st under 53.5
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play 2
Georgia +4-115
A couple of good write-ups out there on this one. Friend of the show abizzo has some good thoughts for sure.
Auburn is good - we are just talking about Auburn -4. Can Ga win or just keep it close?
You can make a case for Auburn - but this is what we are basing the pick on. Follow or fade away....1) Auburn is one-dimensional on offense whereas Ga is balanced.....Dont think Auburn will be able to MATRICULATE in the passing game - Ga is ranked 3rd in the SEC in run D yds/carry and 4th in yds allowed....2) Auburn has only played 2 teams with passing efficiency in the top 40....LSU (loss)....T AM - won but gave up a boatload of yds - over 600 - and lets face it T AM might as well not even put guys on the field on D....Murray we have no doubt will have success....Gurley back only helps the run game.....3) pressure - this is subjective but our view is that the pressure is on Auburn since they need to win or the Bama game means a lot less....Also Auburn is now the hunted and not the hunter.....Now we know Crowd Will be Rocking Guy and They Have to Win so They Will Guy will pound Auburn - but we think 4 points is a lot to give Ga....4) so much hate for Richt but he has proven experience winning big SEC road games - 33-11L44 SU.
GL freaks......mega
update
plays - max 2% of bankroll if dumb enough to tail
- hawaii over 57.5
- georgia +4
small degen coin toss money burners for action/...0-2 so far
- wash (waiting....want 3)
- w va -6.5...hate this one already god we hate betting favs
Mega - Tough back door last night. Put a note in the old Rolodex that NIU doesn't take knees. That little stunt caused all the favorite and over players to cash on a mid week almost stand alone game (which means the books probably lost some loot). Ahhh to have Lynch fumble that ball and give Ball State a chance to tie with over a minute left would have been a nice lesson to teach, but the point spread gods decided not to invoke their vengeance last night, perhaps saving it for Saturday.
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Mega - Tough back door last night. Put a note in the old Rolodex that NIU doesn't take knees. That little stunt caused all the favorite and over players to cash on a mid week almost stand alone game (which means the books probably lost some loot). Ahhh to have Lynch fumble that ball and give Ball State a chance to tie with over a minute left would have been a nice lesson to teach, but the point spread gods decided not to invoke their vengeance last night, perhaps saving it for Saturday.
hard to believe that the owls are a 17 pt fav - but we tend to agree and our numbers agree....s piss has given up 50 pts 5X this yr and are horrid....just cant lay 17....looked at the over but these teams combined avg 650Y offense...fla atl qbs only 9td all yr 9 int...can see 37-10 type game...pass
akron 7.5 umass (45)
both teams off a bye.....both teams avg less than 5 yds/play on offense and ranked poorly....akron has had its moments...umass may be ticking slightly upward....line and total may be a bit light but we are taking a pass
arizona 13 wash st (66)
arizona last 2 games burned a lot of cash...wash st has been tank tank tanking....just have no feel on which team will show up...again total seems a bit light but gonna pass have not seen much of these teams so no eye test to go on.
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thx wiseguy GL bud
fla atl 17 s miss (49.5)
hard to believe that the owls are a 17 pt fav - but we tend to agree and our numbers agree....s piss has given up 50 pts 5X this yr and are horrid....just cant lay 17....looked at the over but these teams combined avg 650Y offense...fla atl qbs only 9td all yr 9 int...can see 37-10 type game...pass
akron 7.5 umass (45)
both teams off a bye.....both teams avg less than 5 yds/play on offense and ranked poorly....akron has had its moments...umass may be ticking slightly upward....line and total may be a bit light but we are taking a pass
arizona 13 wash st (66)
arizona last 2 games burned a lot of cash...wash st has been tank tank tanking....just have no feel on which team will show up...again total seems a bit light but gonna pass have not seen much of these teams so no eye test to go on.
johnny yup - been front doored twice by NIU this yr.........A tough one but realistically - game could have gone either way with respect to the spread and NIU gets credit for playing 60 minutes......GL with the rest of your plays bud
abizzo - lets get that paper
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johnny yup - been front doored twice by NIU this yr.........A tough one but realistically - game could have gone either way with respect to the spread and NIU gets credit for playing 60 minutes......GL with the rest of your plays bud
tempted to play Ga St again but gonna back off until they play one of the non-elite teams in the Sun Belt...have home game to S Alabama circled.....In any event gonna go small degen on the over....last 2 ULL games 84 77.....Ga St 2 home conf games 35-28 and 44-28 in the comfort of the dome...QB Bell had 370 4 td vs troy and 325 2 td vs wk....Ga St passing game coming around....MEGALOCKS SEARCHES THE GLOBE stat that probably means nothing - Ga St has started 5 different centers - same guy from last wk gets the start this wk........have started 9 diff OL combos and beat up again - 3 centers in injury report....Playing lots of freshmen...Think they get 20+ on that ULL D and ULL gets 35-45 so think over is a decent play
adding small degen play ga st over 59.5
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ULL 21 Ga St (59.5)
tempted to play Ga St again but gonna back off until they play one of the non-elite teams in the Sun Belt...have home game to S Alabama circled.....In any event gonna go small degen on the over....last 2 ULL games 84 77.....Ga St 2 home conf games 35-28 and 44-28 in the comfort of the dome...QB Bell had 370 4 td vs troy and 325 2 td vs wk....Ga St passing game coming around....MEGALOCKS SEARCHES THE GLOBE stat that probably means nothing - Ga St has started 5 different centers - same guy from last wk gets the start this wk........have started 9 diff OL combos and beat up again - 3 centers in injury report....Playing lots of freshmen...Think they get 20+ on that ULL D and ULL gets 35-45 so think over is a decent play
The analysis on Georgia/Auburn is great, MegaLocks, especially the balanced attack Georgia has. Plus seems like the road team does better than home in this series (lead 15-10-2 in games played at Auburn)I think that Georgia can play with Auburn, if the Bulldogs don't beat themselves with turnovers and mistakes on special teams. Like it!
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The analysis on Georgia/Auburn is great, MegaLocks, especially the balanced attack Georgia has. Plus seems like the road team does better than home in this series (lead 15-10-2 in games played at Auburn)I think that Georgia can play with Auburn, if the Bulldogs don't beat themselves with turnovers and mistakes on special teams. Like it!
Tulsa in the #shitterbigtime and trying out new QBs....Gut says Marshall rolls but we have line closer to 9-11 range and Marshall below .500SU and ATS on the road this yr....mind you they are scoring like an NBA team at a Kardashian family reunion.....49 61 56 pts scored last 3 games.....hmmmmm...gonna pass not even sure tulsa gets enough to make total enticing marshall D has its moments
no opinion
clemson 10 ga tech (57.5)
sorry clemson just not a great fade they are sound in all phases and take care of the football Boyd's last bad decision might have been 3 yrs ago - like that guy....GT never know what you are gonna get - play some good ones but been trucked a couple times on the road vs good teams miami and byu....last 2 games at clemson 47-31 and 31-17.....total looks about right maybe slightest of leans to under...but realistically gonna wait for an in game play
no opinion
mega
LMAO mind you they are scoring like an NBA team at a Kardashian family reunion...
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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
marshall 14 Tulsa (62.5)
Tulsa in the #shitterbigtime and trying out new QBs....Gut says Marshall rolls but we have line closer to 9-11 range and Marshall below .500SU and ATS on the road this yr....mind you they are scoring like an NBA team at a Kardashian family reunion.....49 61 56 pts scored last 3 games.....hmmmmm...gonna pass not even sure tulsa gets enough to make total enticing marshall D has its moments
no opinion
clemson 10 ga tech (57.5)
sorry clemson just not a great fade they are sound in all phases and take care of the football Boyd's last bad decision might have been 3 yrs ago - like that guy....GT never know what you are gonna get - play some good ones but been trucked a couple times on the road vs good teams miami and byu....last 2 games at clemson 47-31 and 31-17.....total looks about right maybe slightest of leans to under...but realistically gonna wait for an in game play
no opinion
mega
LMAO mind you they are scoring like an NBA team at a Kardashian family reunion...
navy on a very impressive 4 game run - includes tough close losses to notre dame and toledo on the road....have the fair line right where it is...navy traditionally not a great home fav ats...s alabama has been fiesty all yr just not sure about how they fare against an option team and their d away has been much worse than home - pass
s carolina 13 florida (42)
staying the F away sorry boys - these are the types of games we have avoided this yr - too much uncertainty - yes SC should truck them but Fla gave up less than 200Y last wk....QB situation and "have they quit on the HC" are a bit worrisome.....SC also has a way of reaming you hard and nasty allowing late backdoor TD - and seeing how Fla kept playing against Ga dont think they stop playing in this one- just a guess - and dont think SC is good enough on offense to just truck them.....tempted to taste the under but 42 just insane for an ncaa game - pass
kansas st 10.5 tcu (47)
almost made this a 1134273890472 UNIT SMOKER and included them in ALL 8,789 of our 30 pt NCAA teasers ....Love this K St team - over 500 y rushing last wk in a HUGE MEGALOCKS PENETRATING SPECIAL CASH CASH PLAY....L3 games 125-45 combined and D ranked 39....TCU struggling - however staying away since we have the fair line closer to 8-9 and last yr TCU looked bad (not the D tho) and still played them to a 23-10 L at home...TCU on road lost to okla okie st and TT....LSU (N) - all relatively close - you know they will play to the end..#1 ranked run D in the B12 gonna at least make things a bit tough for K St
mega
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guys
navy 7.5 s ala (57.5)
navy on a very impressive 4 game run - includes tough close losses to notre dame and toledo on the road....have the fair line right where it is...navy traditionally not a great home fav ats...s alabama has been fiesty all yr just not sure about how they fare against an option team and their d away has been much worse than home - pass
s carolina 13 florida (42)
staying the F away sorry boys - these are the types of games we have avoided this yr - too much uncertainty - yes SC should truck them but Fla gave up less than 200Y last wk....QB situation and "have they quit on the HC" are a bit worrisome.....SC also has a way of reaming you hard and nasty allowing late backdoor TD - and seeing how Fla kept playing against Ga dont think they stop playing in this one- just a guess - and dont think SC is good enough on offense to just truck them.....tempted to taste the under but 42 just insane for an ncaa game - pass
kansas st 10.5 tcu (47)
almost made this a 1134273890472 UNIT SMOKER and included them in ALL 8,789 of our 30 pt NCAA teasers ....Love this K St team - over 500 y rushing last wk in a HUGE MEGALOCKS PENETRATING SPECIAL CASH CASH PLAY....L3 games 125-45 combined and D ranked 39....TCU struggling - however staying away since we have the fair line closer to 8-9 and last yr TCU looked bad (not the D tho) and still played them to a 23-10 L at home...TCU on road lost to okla okie st and TT....LSU (N) - all relatively close - you know they will play to the end..#1 ranked run D in the B12 gonna at least make things a bit tough for K St
GL Mega, always enjoy your write ups and insight. Looking forward to your "Cleveland Steamer" special of the week as well as the infamous "snot bubbler". Keep em coming buddy
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GL Mega, always enjoy your write ups and insight. Looking forward to your "Cleveland Steamer" special of the week as well as the infamous "snot bubbler". Keep em coming buddy
Would like to say hello Mega . I am 7 - 2 in this forum this year posting college football . I am selective like you . Learned along time ago I would rather invest large on a few rather than less on a lot for various IMO obvious reasons , others would of course disagree . I live in Alabama between Auburn and Tuscallossa . . About the Geo/Aub game , still thinking bout it will tell this week . Hold your breath . Nice to meet u .
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Would like to say hello Mega . I am 7 - 2 in this forum this year posting college football . I am selective like you . Learned along time ago I would rather invest large on a few rather than less on a lot for various IMO obvious reasons , others would of course disagree . I live in Alabama between Auburn and Tuscallossa . . About the Geo/Aub game , still thinking bout it will tell this week . Hold your breath . Nice to meet u .
BIG ERN !! ......We specialize in the Cleveland Steamer...and people are using the SNOT BUBBLER terminology on other sitesWe move lines. And change the way society communicates.
MSU 5.5 Neb (41.5)
have the fair line closer to 3 but Sparty off a bye and not going against that brick wall D here....Neb off a big win - and lets not forget they were one HAIL MARY MATRICULATION away from the season being a disaster.......Neb only one loss since UCLA game....game screams under but not going under a total that low in ncaa...pass
SMU 14 uconn (58)
uconn flat out bad...smu can put up points - but hard to trust a 3-5 team laying 2TD or more...uconn off games to Louisville and UCF...get some relief here....puzzler.....no take on total
ECU 26 UAB (65)
line should probably be a touch lower....UAB can score some but we really like this ECU team and cant fade them against a team with a D that bad....slight lean ecu...slight lean to over as well just dont know uab well enough....pass
mega
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boys
BIG ERN !! ......We specialize in the Cleveland Steamer...and people are using the SNOT BUBBLER terminology on other sitesWe move lines. And change the way society communicates.
MSU 5.5 Neb (41.5)
have the fair line closer to 3 but Sparty off a bye and not going against that brick wall D here....Neb off a big win - and lets not forget they were one HAIL MARY MATRICULATION away from the season being a disaster.......Neb only one loss since UCLA game....game screams under but not going under a total that low in ncaa...pass
SMU 14 uconn (58)
uconn flat out bad...smu can put up points - but hard to trust a 3-5 team laying 2TD or more...uconn off games to Louisville and UCF...get some relief here....puzzler.....no take on total
ECU 26 UAB (65)
line should probably be a touch lower....UAB can score some but we really like this ECU team and cant fade them against a team with a D that bad....slight lean ecu...slight lean to over as well just dont know uab well enough....pass
have the fair line at pk em....miami has given up over 1000 yds and 80 points last 2 wk....21 pts given up 6 str games....4 str games have not exceeded 27 on offense - sliding a bit...duke can reach the acc champ game - which joke all you want - would be pretty impressive - by winning out....normally would say pressure is on - but they can play the underdog card catching 3.5...duke on 12-5L17 ats home run....think they are the better team right now.......small degen play on duke +3.5
update
plays - max 2% bankroll if dumb enough to tail
- hawaii over 57.5
- georgia +4 -115
small degen coin flips - action plays only - 0-2 this wk so far
- ga st over 59.5
- duke +3.5
- w va -6.5 (hate hate hate this pick now)
- nc st under 53.5
- purdue over 44.5
- wash (want 3 - missed it last night - should get it)
- troy (want 30...dicey)
mega
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miami 3.5 duke (61.5)
have the fair line at pk em....miami has given up over 1000 yds and 80 points last 2 wk....21 pts given up 6 str games....4 str games have not exceeded 27 on offense - sliding a bit...duke can reach the acc champ game - which joke all you want - would be pretty impressive - by winning out....normally would say pressure is on - but they can play the underdog card catching 3.5...duke on 12-5L17 ats home run....think they are the better team right now.......small degen play on duke +3.5
update
plays - max 2% bankroll if dumb enough to tail
- hawaii over 57.5
- georgia +4 -115
small degen coin flips - action plays only - 0-2 this wk so far
- ga st over 59.5
- duke +3.5
- w va -6.5 (hate hate hate this pick now)
- nc st under 53.5
- purdue over 44.5
- wash (want 3 - missed it last night - should get it)
Using your degen Duke play as a hedge against a preseason play I made on Miami to win OVER 8 1/2 games. Felt real good about this a few weeks ago, now I am going to try and buy some of my bet back by playing Duke and hope for a best case Miami win by 3 or less. If duke wins I halved my exposure with Miami having a home game vs UVA and a tough road game vs Pitt to cash the over win total.
Thanks for the idea Mega!
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Using your degen Duke play as a hedge against a preseason play I made on Miami to win OVER 8 1/2 games. Felt real good about this a few weeks ago, now I am going to try and buy some of my bet back by playing Duke and hope for a best case Miami win by 3 or less. If duke wins I halved my exposure with Miami having a home game vs UVA and a tough road game vs Pitt to cash the over win total.
Mega what are your thoughts on the Ville Houston spread? Any opinion? GL
My gut feel is an automatic degen play for small on houston - that is just toooooooo many points houston is underrated. will look at it in detail in a bit...GL buddy
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Quote Originally Posted by TreyInventor:
Mega what are your thoughts on the Ville Houston spread? Any opinion? GL
My gut feel is an automatic degen play for small on houston - that is just toooooooo many points houston is underrated. will look at it in detail in a bit...GL buddy
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