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NCAA wk 12

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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by GoMealeo:



Not trying to stir the pot, but why don't you let MEGA do what he does and not ask him for personal favors and write ups on games? I'm floored how many of you come into his thread where he delivers golden insight and ASK for sh*t on particular games. 

Let the dude spend his time studying, not answering personal favors. Is it possible to be grateful for the info he voluntarily shards and not ask for his thoughts on 6-10 games you may have interest in? Legit unreal.

Recent lurker, brand new poster (signed up primarily to acknowledge/thank Mega), and admittedly I feel the same way.

Again, don't want to be a deterrent to this thread and MEGA is so nice he would never say anything, but he's already said he's posting *every* game and people are already asking for multiple lines on MONDAY.

"Pick 1"

"Nah, tie... please tell me about these two."

The fact that we're not paying a substantial fee to have this level of access and insight is ah-mazing.

Anyway, I'm a the freshman overstepping my bounds during Varsity's team meeting so I'm going to go back to raking the field and getting the equipment on the bus now.

GLA.


 
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Posted: #102
GL this week MEGA. 

Quick question, I've always adhered to the 3% bet based on your bankroll. No more than 20-25% a week. 

What is your limit per bet? % wise and per week % max? Also, most importantly, are you basing thatb% off of the risk amount or the win amount?
 
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Posted: #103
@madden21 - he answered that actually in last week's thread

@mega - scalabrine just posted his POY which is SMU -3 over tulane.  i know you get a bunch of requests but if you have time can you please take a look at just this one game?
 
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Posted: #104
@GoMealeo: I think the reason why so many of us respect MEGA is because he doesn't ignore the requests of the community and he will give his unbiased analysis of the game. I know that's one thing that brought me to following MEGA. It's fine if you don't like reading requests or a long page in general but MEGA does a fine job listing all his games/analysis throughout the week in his summaries to make it easy for you to search the games you want.
 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Tuesday MACtion Bowling Green 7 Toledo Megalocks line 5Sagarin 4Some perceived value taking the dog in this one especially if you can get a full TD......Much like BG....Toledo has done very well ATS this year and are in a 3-way tie in the MAC West - problem being that they need some help and have NIU lose a game....They remain very balanced on offense and retain the #1 RZ D in the NCAA....What we do not like is that fact that they matchup between with running teams IMO - and can be beaten over the top and BG is #4 in the NCAA in plays over 30+ yards. Want to beat Toledo's RZ D? simple - score from outside the red zone....Seriously BG offense is just lights out right now and matt Johnson really has it going on.....they take a LOT of deep shots and run the ball well so Toledo is gonna have their hands full.....What we do not like about playing BG ? They have clinched the MAC East. So while this is another version of the I-75 rivalry and have lost the last 5 to Toledo and want to stop that - the urgency factor may just be a bit lower than normal (not intentionally - but they are human)....Covering a full TD may be a bit much to ask. Really tough one to call at this number.Final thought on Toledo. Some teams just fade a bit at the end of the season...Temple comes to mind....not because they are not really good....but you can only play your best for so long and it is already mid-Nov. last 3 games for Toledo? Were down 18 to uMass and came back....Then lost at home to NIU with their b/up QB for 1/2 the game....Then almost blew a 21 pt lead to CM won by 5. BG seems to be peaking.Summary. Just have to take a pass. i think if you grabbed the 8.5/9 area on Sunday you are in a nice position....BG just a tough fade right now.mega

I've watched every one of Toledos last 2 games and your write up is pretty spot on, but it comes down to play calling and Phillip Ely. I'm not really sure why but he is extremely streaky and if he misses a couple in a row he can really go into funks. Listen Toledos offensive line is absolutely awesome, and they can pretty much get 6+ yards on nearly every carry with Hunt. But for whatever reason the coach falls in love with the pass and giving the ball to Swanson who isn't half the back that Hunt is. Its frustrated the heck out of me. If bowling Green gets up 14+ in this one I believe it will steamroll on Toledo as I just don't believe Ely is accurate enough to lead them from behind. To me I would only play BG in this game mainly because I don't believe Ely is good enough to keep up if it becomes a shootout.
 
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Posted: #106
MegaLocks just heard about you bro, and seems some of your picks. Nice work!  I was wondering if you could could give me a prievew of the Boise State vs Air Force game and the MSU vs OSU and who you like. 

Thanks,  and keep up the good picks!
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by CalBear2009:

@madden21 - he answered that actually in last week's thread

@mega - scalabrine just posted his POY which is SMU -3 over tulane.  i know you get a bunch of requests but if you have time can you please take a look at just this one game?

Thanks - I just saw that post. Did he mention about whether his % was risk amount or win amount?
 
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Posted: #108

Sagarin - Top 25 - Significant variances

Ohio St - 13 vs. Mich State   (Sagarin 10)

ND - 17 vs. BC  (Sagarin 23) - Game at Fenway Park (Boston)

Iowa - 21 vs Purdue (Sagarin 26)

Florida -31 vs FAU (Sagarin 39)

Utah -2.5 vs UCLA  (Sagarin 6)

Navy -12 vs. Tulsa (Sagarin 16)

Oregon - 4.5 vs USC  (Sagarin has USC favored by 3 -- 7.5 point shift) 

 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by SharpShooter8:

Sagarin - Top 25 - Significant variances
Ohio St - 13 vs. Mich State   (Sagarin 10)
ND - 17 vs. BC  (Sagarin 23) - Game at Fenway Park (Boston)
Iowa - 21 vs Purdue (Sagarin 26)
Florida -31 vs FAU (Sagarin 39)
Utah -2.5 vs UCLA  (Sagarin 6)
Navy -12 vs. Tulsa (Sagarin 16)
Oregon - 4.5 vs USC  (Sagarin has USC favored by 3 -- 7.5 point shift)

The line difference in the Michigan State Ohio state game I'm sure is because of Cooks injury. If you saw him try to throw after the hit he took vs Maryland it was brutal, very Peyton manning like with his velocity. Also that msu offense looked wretched in general vs Maryland. But if he's not 100% the buckeyes are going to steamroll sparty, they may anyway.
 
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Posted: #110
I am sick to my stomach i read every thread you and train posted last year, this year ive taken a much less disciplined approach, and come on for the first time this week and see that the entire forum is getting rich, while 'I am having a terrible year.  Ive never lost so many games in the last two minutes, or by 1/2 points.  Keep up the good work, even your leans were dead on last week.  Two that come to mind were Vandy and Nevada.  BOL moving forward
 
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Posted: #111

FRIDAY

Cincy 2.5 S Florida (63.5)

Megalocks line pk

Sagarin SF 1

Very tough game to get a handle on.....Actually it is whenever Cincy games are lined within a FG.....Kinda like Tex Tech and Wash St teams like that - we like to pick em in a game we think they can win while getting more than a TD hopefully DD...

Cincy offense is absolutely smoking right now fantastic QB play and nice run game - they are also doing very well on 3rd downs both offensively and defensively - so the challenge for USF will be to keep their offense on the field....And they are also on fire just roasted Temple for 556Y  for real like for real....320 rushing and 230 passing and the under the radar star M Mack ran for another 230....he is only a sophomore .....SF definitely has the edge on D - ranked #1 in AAC in yds per play D....Cincy is #8......One thing that would worry us about Cincy as we tell you all the time is that they do make mistakes (14 int between the 2 QB) and take a lot of penalties (#117 in PY) so not a great recipe for success on the road......USF still has a shot to make the conf game- one game behind Temple and own the tiebreaker.

Final thought.....I know we sometimes mention line movement and have no idea how this game will shake out - and this is not a "betting strategy" just something to watch.....last wk we noted that you could have bet Baylor -2.5 for $78 trillion all week long baby ....you could have also borrowed money to put $90 billion on Temple -2.5 all week....And boy - that Iowa St game was lock city - dropped below 14 and you could have had $8909 trillion on the Cowboys....think of the profits !! So not just for this game- but guys ask me about this all the time - it takes some experience - but if this baby hangs around 2.5 and 2 and never pushes over 3 we would only say be extra careful with Cincy because who would not want to bet on the best offense of all time at less than a FG ??

Summary. No lean - would want 3.5 to play either team in what we think is a tossup.

mega

 
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Posted: #112
Mega,

How can you tell if you can bet a lot on a team and the line won't move?  I completely understand the logic but could you have bet the same on Oky and the line still wouldn't have moved from -2.5?

Just trying to learn more about this so I can spot it on my own.

Thanks homie!
 
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Posted: #113

FRIDAY

Boise 12 Air Force (57)

Megalocks line 11

Sagarin 9.5

Cannot imagine many people would have thought that New Mexico and Air Force both control their own destiny to make the MW Title Game....AF got a record 12th straight home win last week - they were also 6-0 at home last yr - CONGRATS ......We noted earlier in the year how their offense was struggling but no longer - just put up 580Y on Utah St.....whaaaaaaaaaat???? included 271 in the air so NOW this is the team that can be very dangerous have to respect the pass....We are worried about how their pass D will step up against Boise - Rypien got over 500 last wk - but Boise just seems to be making more mistakes than normal this year just something missing even when they own the stats.....Our MW INSIDERS note that in last week's upset loss to New Mexico at home - for real like for real - BOISE had 40 FIRST DOWNS while NM had 11 FIRST DOWNS ....they had a 500Y QB....100Y RB and 280Y WR and LOST ......So it is not that they all of the sudden stink - they are still moving the ball but something smells rotten in Denmark.....Also have to wonder where they motivation might be for the first time since the Lincoln administration they are not top dogs.

Summary. Lean AF at 11 or better.....may make final card not sure yet.

mega

 
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Posted: #114
THREAD SUMMARY

Picks

(none yet)

Write-Ups

Tuesday - BG / Toledo (post 54)   Ohio / Ball St (56)

Wednesday - CM / Kent (63)   NIU / W Michigan (71)

Thursday - EC / UCF (90)

Thursday - Tex St / ULM (97)

Friday - Cincy / USF (111)   Boise / AF (113)

 

 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by WYNNWYNN0019:

Mega,

How can you tell if you can bet a lot on a team and the line won't move?  I completely understand the logic but could you have bet the same on Oky and the line still wouldn't have moved from -2.5?

Just trying to learn more about this so I can spot it on my own.

Thanks homie!

Hey bro....Well being sarcastic - I think if that much came on Sooners the line would go down......Understanding how and why lines move is a highly debatable and sensitive subject and there is NO way I want to assume what I am saying is RIGHT or WRONG....I would just recommend ignoring all the bogus % out there and bogus $ amounts and just use logic...Those games I noted may or may not be bad examples - so the only point I am trying to make is that - if in YOUR opinion the more popular and obvious pick is a favorite at a point just below a key number....-2.5.....-6.5......-13.....etc....and just lingers there forever and does not steam over 3 7 14 for example - that in our experience are the games that WE personally have lost on while ignoring the obvious downward pressure on the line. Just our 2 cents....Only experience has helped. AND it is never a reason to make a play - we just keep an eye on it IF it is a side we like....One final example was Buffalo vs Kent we loved the Bulls....sat there at -2.5 and -2 forever like for real.....Then of course you may remember how the line steamed in Kent's favor.....Buff won by 1 point so anyone taking Buffalo at -2 or -2.5 took it in the pooper when on paper that did not seem likely at least to us.

GL !

 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Hey bro....Well being sarcastic - I think if that much came on Sooners the line would go down......Understanding how and why lines move is a highly debatable and sensitive subject and there is NO way I want to assume what I am saying is RIGHT or WRONG....I would just recommend ignoring all the bogus % out there and bogus $ amounts and just use logic...Those games I noted may or may not be bad examples - so the only point I am trying to make is that - if in YOUR opinion the more popular and obvious pick is a favorite at a point just below a key number....-2.5.....-6.5......-13.....etc....and just lingers there forever and does not steam over 3 7 14 for example - that in our experience are the games that WE personally have lost on while ignoring the obvious downward pressure on the line. Just our 2 cents....Only experience has helped. AND it is never a reason to make a play - we just keep an eye on it IF it is a side we like....One final example was Buffalo vs Kent we loved the Bulls....sat there at -2.5 and -2 forever like for real.....Then of course you may remember how the line steamed in Kent's favor.....Buff won by 1 point so anyone taking Buffalo at -2 or -2.5 took it in the pooper when on paper that did not seem likely at least to us.

GL !


AHHHH thanks for explaining.

So on the current card of games North Carolina might be an interesting one.  Is -6.5 right now and if it sits there or moves in favor of VA Tech you'd probably recommend passing or taking a punt on VA Tech based on your experience?
 
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Posted: #117

MEGALOCKS PUBLIC SERVICE MESSAGE

Taking a last minute trip to Jamaica  leaving early tomorrow AM and back late Sunday......Going to charge the batteries and get ready for the final weeks and then BOWL SEASON ! ......YA MON

"So what does that mean to me ?"

Well - as PROMISED we are STILL going to do EVERY game in week 13 as noted in our first post. That is NEXT week.

So get ready for an extravaganza next week when every game will be analyzed even the dirtiest filthiest looking matchups.

The good news ? Will still get to the requests from yesterday. Will post those up later today. We have also received permission from the MEGALOCKS BOARD OF DIRECTORS to check in while away so we are still going to be WORKING for the PEOPLE at least to the extent that we can and posting up analysis and God willing some picks for week 12.

Figured it was time to cash in a couple chips and make sure we are fresh for the stretch drive.   It has been weeks and weeks non-stop have enjoyed every second but a couple days on the beach will not suck.

MEGA

 
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Posted: #118
Quote Originally Posted by WYNNWYNN0019:


AHHHH thanks for explaining.

So on the current card of games North Carolina might be an interesting one.  Is -6.5 right now and if it sits there or moves in favor of VA Tech you'd probably recommend passing or taking a punt on VA Tech based on your experience?

That one not so sure because you have 2 teams that will be well supported IMO - VT decent and at home- Beamer last home game - and UNC is on FIRE. Right thinking tho. Just my 2 cents. It is the toughest part of the game to master for me but getting way better at it - even if it is mostly BS

 
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Posted: #119
Mega- great week buddy!! UCLA loss was good for the bankroll but bad for the alumni pride!! couple questions, do you ever lean towards tendencies for teams that you win with, for example I know you picked Stanford -6 against ucla and Washington state plus 10.5 against ucla, making you 2-0 ats betting against ucla. On the other hand you are 0-2 with florida unders, the tt under for florida against lsu and against Georgia. Would that make you avoid those bets in future or you look at everything without bias. That being said I love Utah -2 against ucla this week, ucla will struggle at rice-eissels stadium, always have a hard time in those cold unusual pac 12 games. Let me know if you have some time to look at it! gl like always my man
 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

MEGALOCKS PUBLIC SERVICE MESSAGE

Taking a last minute trip to Jamaica  leaving early tomorrow AM and back late Sunday......Going to charge the batteries and get ready for the final weeks and then BOWL SEASON ! ......YA MON

"So what does that mean to me ?"

Well - as PROMISED we are STILL going to do EVERY game in week 13 as noted in our first post. That is NEXT week.

So get ready for an extravaganza next week when every game will be analyzed even the dirtiest filthiest looking matchups.

The good news ? Will still get to the requests from yesterday. Will post those up later today. We have also received permission from the MEGALOCKS BOARD OF DIRECTORS to check in while away so we are still going to be WORKING for the PEOPLE at least to the extent that we can and posting up analysis and God willing some picks for week 12.

Figured it was time to cash in a couple chips and make sure we are fresh for the stretch drive.   It has been weeks and weeks non-stop have enjoyed every second but a couple days on the beach will not suck.

MEGA

team MEGAHOO will await our postcard from the beach, I'm thinking of taking this week off as well to refresh, I'm getting a touch frustrated chatting with some of these dopes so that usually means it's time for a break, we have some cool members but we have some real jackwagons as well

we have our 23487567 star underdog ML of the decade going next week, waiting to hear from HotCarl and "crowd will be rocking over the Holidays guy" before confirming bet

will be in touch, safe travels Mega-pimp 
.
 
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Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

MEGALOCKS PUBLIC SERVICE MESSAGE


Have a good time buddy! My over pick on view count is not lookin so good though!... Bridge Inc's CEO is SO SO happy you're using your vacation time and says stay as long as you want.... still very upset w me.. haha.
 
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Posted: #122
A well earned vacation.  Have a good time Mega!
 
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Posted: #123
If you like Pina Coladas...
 
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Posted: #124
Have a good trip Mega you definitely earned it.
 
 
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Posted: #125
So Mega's lock for the weekend is sunscreen. Enjoy the beach!!!
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