I've watched every one of Toledos last 2 games and your write up is pretty spot on, but it comes down to play calling and Phillip Ely. I'm not really sure why but he is extremely streaky and if he misses a couple in a row he can really go into funks. Listen Toledos offensive line is absolutely awesome, and they can pretty much get 6+ yards on nearly every carry with Hunt. But for whatever reason the coach falls in love with the pass and giving the ball to Swanson who isn't half the back that Hunt is. Its frustrated the heck out of me. If bowling Green gets up 14+ in this one I believe it will steamroll on Toledo as I just don't believe Ely is accurate enough to lead them from behind. To me I would only play BG in this game mainly because I don't believe Ely is good enough to keep up if it becomes a shootout.
GREAT analysis, Degen......I actually just grabbed BG at 6.5 because of everything you just said. I just can't see backing Toledo here unless it goes back up close to 10. Too many inconsistencies.
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Quote Originally Posted by degengambler34:
I've watched every one of Toledos last 2 games and your write up is pretty spot on, but it comes down to play calling and Phillip Ely. I'm not really sure why but he is extremely streaky and if he misses a couple in a row he can really go into funks. Listen Toledos offensive line is absolutely awesome, and they can pretty much get 6+ yards on nearly every carry with Hunt. But for whatever reason the coach falls in love with the pass and giving the ball to Swanson who isn't half the back that Hunt is. Its frustrated the heck out of me. If bowling Green gets up 14+ in this one I believe it will steamroll on Toledo as I just don't believe Ely is accurate enough to lead them from behind. To me I would only play BG in this game mainly because I don't believe Ely is good enough to keep up if it becomes a shootout.
GREAT analysis, Degen......I actually just grabbed BG at 6.5 because of everything you just said. I just can't see backing Toledo here unless it goes back up close to 10. Too many inconsistencies.
Madden % to risk. So assume $1000 roll opening the week and first bet is 4% - wager or risk $40. every other bet of the week based on same $1000 opening roll. Works for me - so many variations. GL !
CalBear will try and check out the SMU game; My guess is that if SCAL likes it that much I would just bet it. His picks are pretty good. GL
SCC.......Streak...........GoMealeo
degenerate agree 100% with your BG take and Ohio St opinion
Cmoen Boise game done
sharp
alopez - GL this wk bro hang in there - lots of football left try and manage your bankroll rest of the way and pick your spots......My leans were good last week but many weeks they are way off - don't sweat it bro keep grinding
UCLA VERY ASTUTE.....YES I have noticed that I am 0-2 on Florida TT unders and no more of those this year you have also noticed !! Yes - if I do not have a good read - both were close - but I underestimated the ability of Fla D to generate points and the points that the mobility of the Fla QB can create was DEAD wrong and no more this year on that ! Very important to know what is working for you. Seem to be doing well playing on Bama....against BC.....Arkansas games....Gotta know what teams you have a feel for of course understanding that teams change during the yr - GL !
WAHOO !!! thanks really appreciate it - hope to have some downtime and relax....Been at this hard core since early July. Will await the your 3452357348 STAR underdog ML game of the century buddy
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Madden % to risk. So assume $1000 roll opening the week and first bet is 4% - wager or risk $40. every other bet of the week based on same $1000 opening roll. Works for me - so many variations. GL !
CalBear will try and check out the SMU game; My guess is that if SCAL likes it that much I would just bet it. His picks are pretty good. GL
SCC.......Streak...........GoMealeo
degenerate agree 100% with your BG take and Ohio St opinion
Cmoen Boise game done
sharp
alopez - GL this wk bro hang in there - lots of football left try and manage your bankroll rest of the way and pick your spots......My leans were good last week but many weeks they are way off - don't sweat it bro keep grinding
UCLA VERY ASTUTE.....YES I have noticed that I am 0-2 on Florida TT unders and no more of those this year you have also noticed !! Yes - if I do not have a good read - both were close - but I underestimated the ability of Fla D to generate points and the points that the mobility of the Fla QB can create was DEAD wrong and no more this year on that ! Very important to know what is working for you. Seem to be doing well playing on Bama....against BC.....Arkansas games....Gotta know what teams you have a feel for of course understanding that teams change during the yr - GL !
WAHOO !!! thanks really appreciate it - hope to have some downtime and relax....Been at this hard core since early July. Will await the your 3452357348 STAR underdog ML game of the century buddy
Wow just when we thought for sure you must be a machine like the male version of SIRI, you're going on vacation......bravo! Covers truly is lucky to have you. Be safe and come back soon. Lol. We miss you already
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Wow just when we thought for sure you must be a machine like the male version of SIRI, you're going on vacation......bravo! Covers truly is lucky to have you. Be safe and come back soon. Lol. We miss you already
MEGALOCKS PUBLIC SERVICE MESSAGE Ahhh a well deserved trip enjoy rest up for bowls we're gonna need you enjoy maybe 1 little crack hit before you go haha all the best Taking a last minute trip to Jamaica leaving early tomorrow AM and back late Sunday......Going to charge the batteries and get ready for the final weeks and then BOWL SEASON ! ......YA MON "So what does that mean to me ?" Well - as PROMISED we are STILL going to do EVERY game in week 13 as noted in our first post. That is NEXT week. So get ready for an extravaganza next week when every game will be analyzed even the dirtiest filthiest looking matchups. The good news ? Will still get to the requests from yesterday. Will post those up later today. We have also received permission from the MEGALOCKS BOARD OF DIRECTORS to check in while away so we are still going to be WORKING for the PEOPLE at least to the extent that we can and posting up analysis and God willing some picks for week 12. Figured it was time to cash in a couple chips and make sure we are fresh for the stretch drive. It has been weeks and weeks non-stop have enjoyed every second but a couple days on the beach will not suck. MEGA
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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
MEGALOCKS PUBLIC SERVICE MESSAGE Ahhh a well deserved trip enjoy rest up for bowls we're gonna need you enjoy maybe 1 little crack hit before you go haha all the best Taking a last minute trip to Jamaica leaving early tomorrow AM and back late Sunday......Going to charge the batteries and get ready for the final weeks and then BOWL SEASON ! ......YA MON "So what does that mean to me ?" Well - as PROMISED we are STILL going to do EVERY game in week 13 as noted in our first post. That is NEXT week. So get ready for an extravaganza next week when every game will be analyzed even the dirtiest filthiest looking matchups. The good news ? Will still get to the requests from yesterday. Will post those up later today. We have also received permission from the MEGALOCKS BOARD OF DIRECTORS to check in while away so we are still going to be WORKING for the PEOPLE at least to the extent that we can and posting up analysis and God willing some picks for week 12. Figured it was time to cash in a couple chips and make sure we are fresh for the stretch drive. It has been weeks and weeks non-stop have enjoyed every second but a couple days on the beach will not suck. MEGA
Hostile Environment Guy will be all over Wash St this week - and we have to be honest - this might be our fav Wash St team EVER developing quite the MAN CRUSH on QB Falk who can make all the throws and is tougher than a $4 steak.....And you have to like the Pirate at HC.....They escaped with a big win last wk vs UCLA - but one thing we have noticed this year - the margin of victory in Cougar games when they are playing "Actual" teams as opposed to "Not Actual Teams" like Wyoming and Oregon St and Portland St (who actually beat them by 7 !) are 3 6 7 3 2 14 and 4 .....So by our way of thinking without even handicapping not thrilled about laying more than 2 TD in this one...Colorado has been sneaky competitive at times this year so we would classify them as an "Actual" team.....lost by 3 to USC and by 4 at UCLA...,...HOWEVER throwing the big unknown into the equation - Colorado starting QB done for the year - redshirt freshman Apsay did very well vs USC of course now going on the road and going toe to toe with Falk (probable this wk) is an entirely different ball game.
Summary. Tough call on the side. Just cannot lay 15. Would play over 63 or better for small potatoes lean if you will kill yourself without action.
mega
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REQUEST LINE .....Megalocks...."We care."
Washington St 15 Colorado (62.5)
Megalocks line 13
Sagarin 14.5
Hostile Environment Guy will be all over Wash St this week - and we have to be honest - this might be our fav Wash St team EVER developing quite the MAN CRUSH on QB Falk who can make all the throws and is tougher than a $4 steak.....And you have to like the Pirate at HC.....They escaped with a big win last wk vs UCLA - but one thing we have noticed this year - the margin of victory in Cougar games when they are playing "Actual" teams as opposed to "Not Actual Teams" like Wyoming and Oregon St and Portland St (who actually beat them by 7 !) are 3 6 7 3 2 14 and 4 .....So by our way of thinking without even handicapping not thrilled about laying more than 2 TD in this one...Colorado has been sneaky competitive at times this year so we would classify them as an "Actual" team.....lost by 3 to USC and by 4 at UCLA...,...HOWEVER throwing the big unknown into the equation - Colorado starting QB done for the year - redshirt freshman Apsay did very well vs USC of course now going on the road and going toe to toe with Falk (probable this wk) is an entirely different ball game.
Summary. Tough call on the side. Just cannot lay 15. Would play over 63 or better for small potatoes lean if you will kill yourself without action.
Taking a last minute trip to Jamaica leaving early tomorrow AM and back late Sunday......Going to charge the batteries and get ready for the final weeks and then BOWL SEASON ! ......YA MON
"So what does that mean to me ?"
Well - as PROMISED we are STILL going to do EVERY game in week 13 as noted in our first post. That is NEXT week.
So get ready for an extravaganza next week when every game will be analyzed even the dirtiest filthiest looking matchups.
The good news ? Will still get to the requests from yesterday. Will post those up later today. We have also received permission from the MEGALOCKS BOARD OF DIRECTORS to check in while away so we are still going to be WORKING for the PEOPLE at least to the extent that we can and posting up analysis and God willing some picks for week 12.
Figured it was time to cash in a couple chips and make sure we are fresh for the stretch drive. It has been weeks and weeks non-stop have enjoyed every second but a couple days on the beach will not suck.
MEGA
MEGA-DREADLOCKS!!!!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
MEGALOCKS PUBLIC SERVICE MESSAGE
Taking a last minute trip to Jamaica leaving early tomorrow AM and back late Sunday......Going to charge the batteries and get ready for the final weeks and then BOWL SEASON ! ......YA MON
"So what does that mean to me ?"
Well - as PROMISED we are STILL going to do EVERY game in week 13 as noted in our first post. That is NEXT week.
So get ready for an extravaganza next week when every game will be analyzed even the dirtiest filthiest looking matchups.
The good news ? Will still get to the requests from yesterday. Will post those up later today. We have also received permission from the MEGALOCKS BOARD OF DIRECTORS to check in while away so we are still going to be WORKING for the PEOPLE at least to the extent that we can and posting up analysis and God willing some picks for week 12.
Figured it was time to cash in a couple chips and make sure we are fresh for the stretch drive. It has been weeks and weeks non-stop have enjoyed every second but a couple days on the beach will not suck.
team MEGAHOO will await our postcard from the beach, I'm thinking of taking this week off as well to refresh, I'm getting a touch frustrated chatting with some of these dopes so that usually means it's time for a break, we have some cool members but we have some real jackwagons as well
we have our 23487567 star underdog ML of the decade going next week, waiting to hear from HotCarl and "crowd will be rocking over the Holidays guy" before confirming bet
will be in touch, safe travels Mega-pimp
I have as many posts as you on another forum...if you post picks, you have to have thick skin and the difference between us and other schlubs is we give winners. Cowboy up hoss
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Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:
team MEGAHOO will await our postcard from the beach, I'm thinking of taking this week off as well to refresh, I'm getting a touch frustrated chatting with some of these dopes so that usually means it's time for a break, we have some cool members but we have some real jackwagons as well
we have our 23487567 star underdog ML of the decade going next week, waiting to hear from HotCarl and "crowd will be rocking over the Holidays guy" before confirming bet
will be in touch, safe travels Mega-pimp
I have as many posts as you on another forum...if you post picks, you have to have thick skin and the difference between us and other schlubs is we give winners. Cowboy up hoss
Had Marshall last week, first half and game. This week I love the over on Navy/Tulsa at 68. Tulsa's last four games went over 71. Both teams can score a lot. If the line drops to 10 I like Navy.
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Had Marshall last week, first half and game. This week I love the over on Navy/Tulsa at 68. Tulsa's last four games went over 71. Both teams can score a lot. If the line drops to 10 I like Navy.
I've been watching lot of Wazzu games this year (see numerous threads i've posted) and have a good read on the team. I would play Colorado or no play.
You and I are in PAC 12 country and I believe I've agreed with you on every play so far I've seen but this one I have to disagree. Sefu out for the year is a big blow to the Buffs. I know the backup came in against SC and was admirable but they had USC in a good spot last week, So Cal team going to the freezing Rockies that is usually a recipe for a closer game than people think. I think Cougs win by 4+ tds. They don't have the ammo to get Ina shoutout with Falk. We have to ride this gunslinger until he's out for bullets.
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Quote Originally Posted by CalBear2009:
I've been watching lot of Wazzu games this year (see numerous threads i've posted) and have a good read on the team. I would play Colorado or no play.
You and I are in PAC 12 country and I believe I've agreed with you on every play so far I've seen but this one I have to disagree. Sefu out for the year is a big blow to the Buffs. I know the backup came in against SC and was admirable but they had USC in a good spot last week, So Cal team going to the freezing Rockies that is usually a recipe for a closer game than people think. I think Cougs win by 4+ tds. They don't have the ammo to get Ina shoutout with Falk. We have to ride this gunslinger until he's out for bullets.
@Win4Ever - yes we have been on many of the same plays together and I do love this Wazzu team but they have now covered 7 or 8 consecutive weeks and I think they are due. Colorado is not a great team but they have the ability to stay in games. As mega mentioned, Wazzu's games tend to be close and while I can certainly see them covering the number I think it's more likely they do not...like 65% chance they don't. I don't feel strongly enough to make it a play which is why i say CU or nothing. GL w/ your bet though!
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@Win4Ever - yes we have been on many of the same plays together and I do love this Wazzu team but they have now covered 7 or 8 consecutive weeks and I think they are due. Colorado is not a great team but they have the ability to stay in games. As mega mentioned, Wazzu's games tend to be close and while I can certainly see them covering the number I think it's more likely they do not...like 65% chance they don't. I don't feel strongly enough to make it a play which is why i say CU or nothing. GL w/ your bet though!
- the margin of victory in Cougar games when they are playing "Actual" teams as opposed to "Not Actual Teams" like Wyoming and Oregon St and Portland St (who actually beat them by 7 !) are 3 6 7 3 2 14 and 4.....So by our way of thinking without even handicapping not thrilled about laying more than 2 TD in this one...
They almost had me take taking on that risk, haha thx!
"A unit saved is a unit earned." -Bridge Franklin
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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
- the margin of victory in Cougar games when they are playing "Actual" teams as opposed to "Not Actual Teams" like Wyoming and Oregon St and Portland St (who actually beat them by 7 !) are 3 6 7 3 2 14 and 4.....So by our way of thinking without even handicapping not thrilled about laying more than 2 TD in this one...
They almost had me take taking on that risk, haha thx!
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