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NCAA wk 12

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Posted: #51
I see UNC favored by 7 over VT in the early line.  VT biggest underdog home game vs ACC opponent since FSU in 2012.  VT lost that game by 6 pts.  
 
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Posted: #52

Your a lesson in disipline. Keep the roll going!

Everyone remember, all good things must end. Remember the fella who borrowed money from father & wife and lost it all on Mich St. No one wants to be in that boat, bet responsibly!!

 
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Posted: #53
Just private messaged you Mega! Need your help! Look forward to hearing from you sir!
 
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Posted: #54
Tuesday MACtion 

Bowling Green 7 Toledo 

Megalocks line 5

Sagarin 4

Some perceived value taking the dog in this one especially if you can get a full TD......Much like BG....Toledo has done very well ATS this year and are in a 3-way tie in the MAC West - problem being that they need some help and have NIU lose a game....They remain very balanced on offense and retain the #1 RZ D in the NCAA....What we do not like is that fact that they matchup between with running teams IMO - and can be beaten over the top and BG is #4 in the NCAA in plays over 30+ yards. Want to beat Toledo's RZ D? simple - score from outside the red zone....Seriously BG offense is just lights out right now and matt Johnson really has it going on.....they take a LOT of deep shots and run the ball well so Toledo is gonna have their hands full.....What we do not like about playing BG ? They have clinched the MAC East. So while this is another version of the I-75 rivalry and have lost the last 5 to Toledo and want to stop that - the urgency factor may just be a bit lower than normal (not intentionally - but they are human)....Covering a full TD may be a bit much to ask. Really tough one to call at this number.

Final thought on Toledo. Some teams just fade a bit at the end of the season...Temple comes to mind....not because they are not really good....but you can only play your best for so long and it is already mid-Nov. last 3 games for Toledo? Were down 18 to uMass and came back....Then lost at home to NIU with their b/up QB for 1/2 the game....Then almost blew a 21 pt lead to CM won by 5. BG seems to be peaking.

Summary. Just have to take a pass. i think if you grabbed the 8.5/9 area on Sunday you are in a nice position....BG just a tough fade right now.

mega
 
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Posted: #55
** matchup BETTER with running teams ** 
 
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Posted: #56
TUESDAY MACtion 

Ohio 9 Ball St

Megalocks line 9

Sagarin 10

In one of the more exciting developments of the weekend - Ohio became bowl eligible  with their 6th win and rest assured after getting the snub last yr with 6 wins - I think they will feel a long better if win number 7 is on the docket despite the fact that the wins are not exactly 'signature"....We do like the fact that the Ohio team is getting a bit healthier and the run game has come alive and more emphasis on grinding it out and running with the QB - it is keeping their D fresher and they seem to have found an identity....Not sure how Ball gets up for this one - 7 losses now - their d is really bad....but their resume has some decent games on it - last wk got their teeth kicked in gave up over 700Y to WM but this Ohio offense is more like something they can handle....ball traditionally a good road dog ATS but only so so this yr.

Our MAC INSIDERS tell us that Ball has won 7 of the last 9 su at Ohio.

Summary. Cannot lay more than 7 in a MAC game unless it is with one of the BIG BOYS. Having said that - if Jim Heist or Pauly Pegleg the Touts release Ball as a play and the line gets down to -7 i think that would be a decent play. Think it sees 10 tho. Just saying. Waiting on the total.

mega


 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by EyezStayLow:

Just private messaged you Mega! Need your help! Look forward to hearing from you sir!

got it - response sent 
 
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Posted: #58
 
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Posted: #59
Thank you much! Your picks are godly
 
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Posted: #60
Great week MEGA.  I know you just do NCAAF. Do you know anyone that I can follow for NCAAB and NBA too. Thanks
 
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Posted: #61
That is as good as you are.
 
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Posted: #62
Gl this week Bro
 
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Posted: #63

WEDNESDAY MACtion

C Michigan 10.5 Kent St

Megalocks line 11

Sagarin 15

You know how much we hate playing DD favs - but the Kent St offense appears to be a special kind of FILTH....Statistically they come up with some fine efforts - allowed 10 to UMass and allowed 18 to a decent Buff team who then led by 11....But they have also lost 48-CACK to BG and gave up over 330Y rushing mostly on QB sneaks to Ohio what in the SAM HILL is going on? Is it their run D that is good? Or their pass D ? We keep getting confused. And their offense is just putrid. Like for real. The Chips are pretty one dimensional maybe Kent can play another decent game?? Chips also only scored 23 14 23 in their last 3 games and need one more win for 6 and bowl eligibility.

Summary. Lean CMich but no higher than 10. Waiting for total.

 

mega

 

 
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Posted: #64
Mega, who is Sagarin? sorry for asking a dumb question
 
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Posted: #65

Quote Originally Posted by Mikey_Likey:

Mega, who is Sagarin? sorry for asking a dumb question

No dumb questions.

He does power ratings for many sports. I compare the Vegas line to his as well as mine own to start the capping process - is there perceived value? Just google sagarin ncaa football ratings. GL

 
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Posted: #66
*** my own **
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:





under is the only play if you read this thread religiously


  The Under is always winning, until it isn't    
 
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Posted: #68
Great season!   Good luck this week!
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:



  The Under is always winning, until it isn't    

 

 
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Posted: #70
LOVE U 
 
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Posted: #71

Wednesday MACtion

N Illinois 3 W Michigan

Megalocks line 4

Sagarin 4.5

This is going to be a fun one....As we have mentioned before - it is VERY difficult to knock off a team that has a winning pedigree like NIU....Backup QB Graham is doing quite well and FOR THE LOVE OF PETE he somehow manages to do a good job running the football do not know how he runs away from people yet he does....NIU and WM are in a 3-way tie for the MAC West....both teams control their own destiny if our MAC experts have done the math correctly......We do lean NIU because they are a proven commodity - but also - their D is much better and I know it bores everyone to death so predictable - but we just like the team that we feel will get more stops when the spread is around a FG....They are #2 in the MAC in yds per play D and WM is #11....WM also 1-6 SU at NIU.

Summary. Lean NIU at no higher than -3. May make the final card need to sleep on it.

mega

 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:



  The Under is always winning, until it isn't    

The Under usually covers at least 75% of the game 90% of the time in 85% of games.

 

Fact!! Kinda....

 
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Posted: #73
You are absolutely clairvoyant.  Prior to finding your sight I was a complete chocolate mess, with your insight and kindness, I'm back to even, which is no small feet.  Not only is it your picks that are phenomenal, it's your non picks and discipline that have saved me!  If you give me the right odds I'll bet the sun comes up in the west.   

Reporting in from the mountain west, New Mexico at home could be interesting. They have won 2 big games in a row, Utah State, and at Boise and actually have control of the mountain division.  If they win out, they win the division.  Colorado State, who also has won 2 straight but they were Hawaii and Wyoming, needs one win for bowl eligibility, they have Fresno State their last game.  Lastly, I don't think Nevada is 2 touch downs bad to Utah State.  Thanks & have a great holiday
 
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Posted: #74
NI -2.5  is a play.Thanks

 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

The Under usually covers at least 75% of the game 90% of the time in 85% of games.

 

Fact!! Kinda....

 

classic

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