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NCAA wk 13

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MVP
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Posted: #176
THREAD SUMMARY 


Picks

Texas Tech +1.5  (would play down to pick em)


Write-Ups appear in this order

Tuesday - BG / Ball St (post 6) ....NIU / Ohio (23)

Thursday - UCF / S Florida (36) ....Texas / Tex Tech (53)

Friday - Kent / Akron (88)....Toledo / W Mich (97)

Friday - Baylor / TCU (100).....Nebraska / iowa (128)

Friday - Chips / E Michigan (141)

Friday - Miami / Pitt (170)....Buff / UMass (171)



UP NEXT - more Friday games 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #177
I absolutely HATE rivalry week from a bettors perspective! Hey Mega, thoughts on Florida St/Florida??? Big line swing since opening...
 
MVP
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Posted: #178
Quote Originally Posted by MWill:

I absolutely HATE rivalry week from a bettors perspective! Hey Mega, thoughts on Florida St/Florida??? Big line swing since opening...

 not sure yet buddy have not had a chance to look at the game.



FRIDAY FUNBELT 

Georgia St 1 Troy (59)

Megalocks line GS -1

Sagarin Troy -3 


We can see the logic on both sides here. Troy has a statistically better D ....#2 in conf in yds per play D - GS is #5.....Troy also played a very nice game on the road vs App St losing in OT then used a +6 turnover margin to dismantle ULM. Lost last game to GSouthern which is understandable now off a bye. Thing is - their season is over with 7 losses not sure where their heads are at - And the offense is STILL 2nd last in the conf in yds/game and yds/play. Meanwhile G St is ranked in the top 3 in those offensive categories and while Troy has not allowed many passing YARDS - we always look at efficiency metrics and they rank WORSE than G St despite playing a bad set of QBs. Only 5 INT all year for Troy and G St QB is a fine specimen throwing for over 3400Y already and 21 TD.....What pushes us to a GSt lean is the last 4 games they have been a lot better - since the bye lost by 14 at Ark St - lost by 2 to ULL - then beat Tex St and S Ala handily - nice current form. Technically they can still make a bowl but would need to beat G Southern on the road IF they beat Troy. Think they are peaking now.

Summary. Lean Georgia St at -1.5 or better. May have something to say on the total later.

mega 
 
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Posted: #179
I went ahead and took Georgia St at -1 for a small bet. I think it will be a close one. :)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #180
Talk about Luck !! Niu has not lost in November in years and they lose on my ''Action Teaser'' Go figure.
 
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Posted: #181
Looking at 54.5 on Buff/UMASS currently
 
Prospect
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Posted: #182

Great read as usual Mega. Good luck.

Noticed the Umass/Buff total now at 54. Took the under at 51.5, might put a bit more on at 54

 
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Posted: #183
Quote Originally Posted by soxfann1:

Talk about Luck !! Niu has not lost in November in years and they lose on my ''Action Teaser'' Go figure.

My record over the years in betting games incolving NIU is an astounding 0-7. I made a rule prior to this season that I would, under no circumstances, back or fade them. Well, weeks ago I broke my own rule and yet again, lost. I was so tempted to back them last night, but did not play. Needless ri say, I was not shocked that Ohio covered when I saw the score this morning. Some superstitions just seem to find a way to play out. Too funny. Sorry about youur teaser, though.
 
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Posted: #184
Hey Mega, I'm rarely in the college forum and I just stumbled into one of your threads for the first time. Pretty cool how you are breaking down every game and promoting discussion in these games even if you aren't betting them. 

You always say "we" when you post. You have a partner in crime you cap with? 

Anyway, good luck this weekend and keep up the great threads. 
 
MVP
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Posted: #185
thanks guys 
A major tout service released Buff over an hour after I posted and boom up it went .....Weather is still supposed to be bad for Friday afternoon. I still think it is a viable strategy if you have not got down especially at 54.5 ! ....However since it is just a 1/4 unit fun play as we noted - not going to make it worse. This yr when i have done this and the line moved the wrong way i am 10-8 just letting it ride so have no problem taking this under into Friday. GL guys
 
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Posted: #186
MWill 

djmont 

soxfann  we have all been there buddy. My "action" middle attempt last night went up in smoke. As long as you keep it to a small amount compared to a normal wager you will be ok. I hear what you are saying tho. Comical sometimes.

Throbbing  i like the strategy at 54 for sure. Just don't go crazy - and you might want to check if you book offers in-game wagering on that game - That is my fav way to get out of a middle attempt going sideways GL

BYU ....we all have nemesis teams buddy ! funny 

glyde  welcome.....No one of the things I do every since i started is use verbage that touts use - you know WE....(when there is one degenerate working in a basement somewhere).....INSIDER......LOCK....STEAM.....
 
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Posted: #187
GL THIS WEEKEND
 
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Posted: #188
MEGA - hey weather tomorrow in Austin is 40-60% chance of thunderstorms and wins 10-15 mph. Do you think this hurts Texas Tech?

Also, with the weather factor, it seems to me taking under 72.5 is a great play. Your thought?
 
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Posted: #189
mjm 

FRIDAY PAC 12 

Oregon 35 Oregon St (70)

Megalocks line 30

Sagarin 28

Oregon St has been a hot mess in recent weeks (HOT TAKE) and losing their QB did not help at all - in fact - QB Collins is still their leading RUSHER wtf and despite the fact that this is a rivalry - do not see anything in the forecast other than PAIN for Oregon St....You are paying a pretty penny tho that is the problem - we would have played Oregon -31 probably but were on an airplane and now just cannot chase it - even the TT is in the mid 50s.....Oregon off a 4 game stretch playing 4 good teams and scored 61 44 38 48 one can only cringe wondering what might happen this wk.....It is a rare occasion when we side with They Are Gonna Kill Em Guy but this looks like a good spot for that.

Summary. Lean Oregon at 35 or better. 

mega





 
MVP
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Posted: #190
Quote Originally Posted by JudgeBaylor:

MEGA - hey weather tomorrow in Austin is 40-60% chance of thunderstorms and wins 10-15 mph. Do you think this hurts Texas Tech?

Also, with the weather factor, it seems to me taking under 72.5 is a great play. Your thought?

Hey bro - think their run game is very underrated and short passing game should shred Texas up BUT you make a good point you never know 
 
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Posted: #191
FRIDAY SEC 

Arkansas 14 Missouri (44)

Megalocks line 14

Sagarin 13


Not even going to pretend we have any feel for this game....All of our standard power rating checks line up and who knows how Missouri is gonna stay in this game? They need a win to get to 6 - but we have no idea how they play in this one the only guarantee is that their D will probably hold their own. Just no QB play to speak of. Looked at the team total under for Mizz but being objective Ark D has given up more points than we thought this yr.

Summary. No.

mega

 
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Posted: #192

I'm hoping you have time to get a write up over the BIG SUNFLOWER SHOWDOW!

HAHA

 

 
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Posted: #193
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

mjm 

FRIDAY PAC 12 

Oregon 35 Oregon St (70)

Megalocks line 30

Sagarin 28

Oregon St has been a hot mess in recent weeks (HOT TAKE) and losing their QB did not help at all - in fact - QB Collins is still their leading RUSHER wtf and despite the fact that this is a rivalry - do not see anything in the forecast other than PAIN for Oregon St....You are paying a pretty penny tho that is the problem - we would have played Oregon -31 probably but were on an airplane and now just cannot chase it - even the TT is in the mid 50s.....Oregon off a 4 game stretch playing 4 good teams and scored 61 44 38 48 one can only cringe wondering what might happen this wk.....It is a rare occasion when we side with They Are Gonna Kill Em Guy but this looks like a good spot for that.

Summary. Lean Oregon at 35 or better. 

mega





i hope i'm not ignorant but if you say your line is 30 and the actual line is 35 shouldn't you be picking oregon st??
 
MVP
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Posted: #194
bmoser - will do ! 

billyh  not a dumb question - We think our PR - and Sagarin's do not actually reflect the current state of both teams - oregon healthy and different team now - opposite for oregon st - Our supercomputer threw out 30 but this is a rare instance we still like oregon to wax them. but you bring up a good point - that is why we did not make it an official play. GL !
 
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Posted: #195
This is the last week of NCAAF. PLEASE DON'T TURN IT INTO A SPAM WITH ARGUMENTS ON HOW ONE PERSON LOVES TO THANK MEGA WHILE THE OTHER DOES RESEARCH AND IS BETTER THAN THOSE WHO STRAIGH TAILS MEGA. 1) We can all do what we like with our money. 2) They money we wager does not equate to the value of our posts on this thread. and 3) MEGA's thread is known for community don't darn that up with your immaturity.
 
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Posted: #196
Quote Originally Posted by SCC:

This is the last week of NCAAF. PLEASE DON'T TURN IT INTO A SPAM WITH ARGUMENTS ON HOW ONE PERSON LOVES TO THANK MEGA WHILE THE OTHER DOES RESEARCH AND IS BETTER THAN THOSE WHO STRAIGH TAILS MEGA. 1) We can all do what we like with our money. 2) They money we wager does not equate to the value of our posts on this thread. and 3) MEGA's thread is known for community don't darn that up with your immaturity.

This Urban guy seems like a 38 year-old divorcee who lives with his mother and wears spidermam pj's, professing to be a high-rolling professional gambler. Anyway, due to his condescending remarks, I am going to go way out on a limb and bet $200 on Stanford to prove to him that I am worth posting on this exclusive forum.
 
MVP
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Posted: #197
THREAD SUMMARY 


Picks

Texas Tech +1.5  (would play down to pick em)


Write-Ups appear in this order

Tuesday - BG / Ball St (post 6) ....NIU / Ohio (23)

Thursday - UCF / S Florida (36) ....Texas / Tex Tech (53)

Friday - Kent / Akron (88)....Toledo / W Mich (97)

Friday - Baylor / TCU (100).....Nebraska / iowa (128)

Friday - Chips / E Michigan (141)

Friday - Miami / Pitt (170)....Buff / UMass (171)

Friday - Troy / Ga St (178)...Oregon / O St (189)

Friday - Arkansas / Missouri (191)


UP NEXT - final Friday games 
 
MVP
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Posted: #198
trying another small potatoes BETTE MIDDLER

USF -22 hoping for UCF +24.5 tomorrow

if you need action ....
 
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Posted: #199
FRIDAY PAC 12

Washington 5.5 Washington St (54)

Megalocks line - OFF

Sagarin - OFF


Sorry. this was an easy one to pass on. Superhuman QB Falk is a no-go for Wash St (listed as doubtful - has taken quite a pounding - concussion) and while they run a very good "system"....we are not going to risk any "money" on this game because we think Washington will "school" them with the backup QB but "not sure". And strange things seem to always happen in the Apple Cup.


Summary. No.

mega


 
 
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Posted: #200
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

trying another small potatoes BETTE MIDDLERUSF -22 hoping for UCF +24.5 tomorrowif you need action ....

I do!!!
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