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NCAA wk 2

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Posted: #1
Freaks  Whack-jobs  "They are Gonna Kill Em" Guy  "Crowd Will be Rocking" Guy   "Public Gonna Get Killed" Guy 

Was great to get the season started 

4-3 last wk. Disappointed to leave off Ga Southern and La Tech from the card.....Glad left off Marshaa Marshaa Marshaa and LSU under so I guess it worked out. Wk 2 and Wk 3 are usually the toughest for us because you tend to think you know more than you really do - So hard to not overreact 

As per usual - will jot down thoughts on as many games as possible - Take the info for what it is and make your own calls. 

Had to mention ....vs BYU....The UConn refs did what they could (15 penalties for BYU/150 yards - several more were declined......Pass bounces 14 times - ruled a UConn catch....etc....) but BYU still prevailed and covered....More importantly - the UNDER prevailed  even with BYU running hurry up offense up 18 pts with 4 min left . Those UConn home games always take a yr off your life but they are the best. 


On to this wk.....

Arizona 7 UTSA (54)
This is a tough one for us....early in the yr - we have some big variances between our "fair point spread" and the vegas line - mostly b/c it is so tough to really know how good teams are this early in the season....We have this line closer to 3 points so normally would be an automatic bet....but.........Az put up almost 800Y offense vs stinky UNLV and their freshman qb looked great....UTSA almost SHUTOUT a very good Houston team - the same team that hung 59 on them last yr....Hmmmmm....Obviously the 20 returning starters are helping UTSA get better and they have now won 6 straight including 3 over LY bowl teams...Home this Friday....lost at Az LY 38-13.....The wild card is that Az offense is SO ridiculous that UTSA could play a great game and still lose by 14......Gonna pass for now but strong lean UTSA....Line hanging strong at 7 which suggests reverse trap public fade money 

mega 



 
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Pitt 4.5 BC (50)

BC did what they had to do beating UMass handily....Former Florida QB (who isn't?) Murphy looked good.....Just 9 returning starters tho really an almost total rebuild and while we see some value in the home dog - Pitt also looked good last wk 62-0 vs Delaware and have much more continuity than BC.....Pitt does have a habit of #shittingthebed tho....??.....Gonna pass on the side......Lean to the under but need to look into it some more....not sure where the BC points are coming from

Wash St 3.5 Nevada (64)

No doubt Wash St backs are against the wall do not want to go 0-2....Just do not think they are that good....Stayed away from them last wk thank goodness....but they are 13-2 ATS off an ATS loss L15 some of those under Leach.....We have the fair line closer to pick em ....Love the Nevada QB who has hobbled most of last yr - they return a ton of starters on D - and while you can argue - they all stink who cares if they are back - There is something to be said for continuity and until they get shredded beyond belief - gonna be interested...Wash St totally one dimensional....hmmmm.....we see this line creeping up already seeing some -4....gonna be greedy and wait a bit - think this gets a bit higher - strong lean Nevada....

mega
 
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Posted: #3
Mega, Best of Luck this week.    
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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 wiseguy ....GL to you as well buddy

Oklahoma 24.5 Tulsa 
Waiting for the total on this bad boy - Tulsa put up a ton of yds in their comeback vs Tulane - also D got shredded by Tulane (????)......Line looks a bit high to us should be closer to 18/20....Small lean to Tulsa but strangely enough 24.5 is our "go" number for Tulsa.....small lean Tulsa - will be looking into this one a bit more.
 
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Posted: #5
Penn St 14 Akron

A little note for all you young Sparkies out there.....We try our best to look at everything ....numbers...matchups....angles....schedule....trends........It is always best to have more than one thing in your favor before going #ballsdeep....Akron is an excellent SITUATIONAL play IMO since Penn St is in a sandwich situation.....Off trip overseas.....Rutgers (Big 10) next....BUT our numbers other analysis comes up pretty neutral - we have the fair line right at 14....So our opinion is that this game is a no play UNLESS your numbers show Akron is 10 pts worse at Penn St (for instance) and not 14....We think the schedule quirk is already baked into the line....Yes Akron is improving - but 14 is not a big number for a team like Penn St to cover at home against a decent (unproven but improving) MAC squad......Gonna take a pass unless this gets to 17+ may take a nibble but early movement suggest this bad boy is not going that high....mega
 
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Kansas St 12 Iowa St (58)

Smells like a Captain Obvious pick this wk....Taking K St under 2 TDs....Facts are K St 6L7 vs Cyclones have been within double digit margins at the end....Iowa St looked brutal last wk but does anyone really know how good ND St is or isnt???....We need to do some more digging....Iowa St was poised on paper to look a lot better on offense this yr - and Richardsons QB stats were horrid??? They do have 10 RS on offense ....hmmmmm.....Iowa St has big Iowa game next but the last 5 yrs the week before iowa they are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS so not sure that is anything to hang the K St hat on....Like we said just have to read a bit more on what in the Sam Hell went on LW in the Iowa St game.....pass for now on side....total looks a smidge high
 
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Colorado 17 UMass 

We have the fair line a bit lower but UMass is horrid.....Colorado led 10-0 vs Col St LW then folded....Scary sandwich game off Col St and first Pac 12 game on deck vs Arizona St at home.....Cant imagine Col not rolling these guys up but you never know.....waiting for the total may take a peek at under depending on the number....Umass if anything has a D with a bit of a pulse and no offense....May be a sleepwalk game here 

mega
 
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Posted: #9

 reverse trap public fade money 

BOL this week MEGA and staff

 
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Posted: #10
NOS  you crazy money making freak  GL
 
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Posted: #11
Love your threads Mega
 
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Posted: #12
Thanks man! GL
 
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Posted: #13
So happy to see these again!
 
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Posted: #14
 thx ! GL

N Texas 3.5 SMU 

Have to believe there is a play in here somewhere ....We have the line closer to 7 so obviously we are out to lunch.....Get this - both teams had less than 100 yds offense last wk yes - baylor and texas are good....But when we step back and look at this one - Just have to wait and see i think.....Both teams reloading at many spots - both teams QB situations look horrid.....NT is 7-2 as home fav ATS under current HC tho.....D gave up only 17.8/game last yr.....hmmmmm.....Gonna get the MEGALOCKS WORLDWIDE RESEARCH STAFF to turn off the #goatporn and start digging into this one....pass for now......will find any total approaching 50 a possible under play....
 
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Alabama 40 Florida Atlantic (49.5)

Line is absolutely inflated according to our numbers - s/b closer to 33/35 - but hard to back a team that gave up almost 800Y last wk at Alabama.....Last 6 FBS teams non-C visiting Alabama are 5-1ATS tho in the last 3Y.....col st ga st wku fla at ntex all covered - kent missed by 2 pts....Cant believe there is any incentive for Bama to run it up - they rarely do - the problem is that Fla Atl may just turtle - QB is listed as P - but dont see any reason why they want to put up any fight - just take the cash and getthehelloutofthere who cares what the score is....We see 45-7 type game....tempted to take the 40 pts but will not revisit unless this bad boy creeps up to 42 on game day.....pass


 
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Posted: #16

This is for Hot Carl!!!

 

 
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Posted: #17


 
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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Kansas St 12 Iowa St (58)

Smells like a Captain Obvious pick this wk....Taking K St under 2 TDs....Facts are K St 6L7 vs Cyclones have been within double digit margins at the end....Iowa St looked brutal last wk but does anyone really know how good ND St is or isnt???....We need to do some more digging....Iowa St was poised on paper to look a lot better on offense this yr - and Richardsons QB stats were horrid??? They do have 10 RS on offense ....hmmmmm.....Iowa St has big Iowa game next but the last 5 yrs the week before iowa they are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS so not sure that is anything to hang the K St hat on....Like we said just have to read a bit more on what in the Sam Hell went on LW in the Iowa St game.....pass for now on side....total looks a smidge high

This is a terrible look-ahead spot for KSU with Auburn on-deck.  I would have been on ISU this week, but I like some other games more.

 

 
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Posted: #19

Mega, I am very happy to tell you what in the Sam Hell happened to Iowa St LW. First, Cyclones had two key injuries, Farniok (center) and Brundage (wide receiver), in the first quarter. Farniok was described by the announcers as the heart-and-soul of the OL, and Brundage seemed to be Cyclones' primary deep threat. Also, ISU's best corner was ejected during second series for targeting. (I thought it was blatant, but Paul Rhoads on the sidelines either didn't like the call or he was giving birth.)

Second, NDSU settled down after a shaky first quarter (Bison had about 12 new starters including new QB, almost totally new coaching staff other than the DC promoted to head coach, etc.) and did what it always does (just ask Minn and KState) to mediocre to middling FBS teams--play fundamentally superior football, don't turn the ball over, and grind them down in the second half.   

 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by nostradamus12:

 reverse trap public fade money

I think he really meant a double reverse with a throw back to the QB trap public fade money, but who's really paying that close of attention anyhow???

 
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Posted: #21
Should have added, for handicapping purposes, Brundage is out for the season, but Farniok apparently will play against KState.
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Alabama 40 Florida Atlantic (49.5)

Line is absolutely inflated according to our numbers - s/b closer to 33/35 - but hard to back a team that gave up almost 800Y last wk at Alabama.....Last 6 FBS teams non-C visiting Alabama are 5-1ATS tho in the last 3Y.....col st ga st wku fla at ntex all covered - kent missed by 2 pts....Cant believe there is any incentive for Bama to run it up - they rarely do - the problem is that Fla Atl may just turtle - QB is listed as P - but dont see any reason why they want to put up any fight - just take the cash and getthehelloutofthere who cares what the score is....We see 45-7 type game....tempted to take the 40 pts but will not revisit unless this bad boy creeps up to 42 on game day.....pass


FAU TT UNDER may be the way to go one this one.

 

 
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Posted: #23
Bison  Great intel !!! thx man - I am hoping for ISU to creep up to 14 GL

Jimmy ! like your FAU TT under....Also glad to see you leaning Iowa St ....GL man
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

This is a terrible look-ahead spot for KSU with Auburn on-deck.  I would have been on ISU this week, but I like some other games more.

 

I don't think any team is totally immune to looking ahead to a big game; but not so fast....   Bill Snyder teams always show huge improvement from week 1 to week 2, and he is very good at keeping his teams focused on the current task. AND, this is a conference game.... that is important fact.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Mega, you are very welcome re the intel. Line now 13 at Station Casinos.
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