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NCAA wk 2

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Posted: #51
Thanks mega.  What about USC -3 -110.  You like?
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by HoyasSax:

Thanks mega.  What about


USC -3 -110.  You like?



Buddy I still think USC +3 is a good play. +3.5 was great. I am prob gonna stick to under 55 and only include USC as part of my underdog ML parlays GL
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:


With this kind of intel  -  PURDUE it is. 

Purdue is a state school, located somewhere in Indiana.  It has a history of producing good quarterbacks and bad football teams.  The Boilers generally wear gold helmets, but sometimes don't.  It is unclear as to why.  We here at MaineRoad Sports Advisors(c) tend to believe that teams play better in gold helmets and have recommended to PU that they do so.  We have yet to receive a response.  Despite the fact that Purdue is largely an engineeering school, the women are generally fairly hot. We here at MaineRoad Sports Advisors(c) tend to believe that teams play better when their fan base is relatively hotter than expected.  Purdue's band has a really big drum (we're talking REALLY big).  We here at MaineRoad Sports Advisors(c) tend to believe that a team's play is generally inversely proportional to the size of its big drum  (see, e.g, Colorado, Yale; and, more recently, Texas).  We here at MaineRoad Sports Advisors(c) also like to cite a state that we made up - teams without directions in their names cover against teams with directions in their names 61% of the time.  That makes Purdue -3 our No Direction Midwestern Team with Four Syllables in its Nickname Early Kick-Off Lock of the Week!

 
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Posted: #54
Paging Hot Carl, paging Hot Carl
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by wmevans1976:

Paging Hot Carl, paging Hot Carl

 I think he may make an appearance ! GL this wk man


Tennessee 16 Ark St (51)
Number looks about right to us - even the total is pretty sharp as Ark St has a sneaky decent D....Tenn has Okla next....Ark St has a new HC and new QB....put up over 500Y in a glorified practice last wk....Still Q about their OL which concerns us quite a bit - gonna pass on this one slight leanage to the under



Illinois 6 WK (64)
Absolutely rod stiffening performance last wk by the wacky hilltoppers....new HC, missing off and def conf POYs and put up 700+ yds on a bowl team on the road .....Illinois D is brutal - looks like QB Lunt gonna fit right in and Illinois will score - we were sadly hoping for a total 58-60....and a line of 7+ .....slight lean to dog and the over but just no feel for these squads yet - pass 

 
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Posted: #56
Missouri 4.5 Holy Toledo (61)

Really like the dog here but missed the 6 pt line hoping it creeps back up....Also have sharp unreversed public trap untrap money coming in on the Rockets....Mizz a totally unknown quantity not sold on them early - 8 RS.....Toledo is our pick to win the MAC....Excellent talent - good on lines - QB looks solid - 8-6L14 ATS as home dog - HC is 15-10 ATS in 2Y....Bowl snub last yr and big name opponent at home to get the juices flowing.....Strong lean Toledo hoping it creeps lurks and slurps its way back to 6/6.5
 total looks about right 
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Stanford 2.5 USC 55

Play

UNDER 55

This was one of the games we referred to earlier - missed the line....Had a couple legitimate outs at USC 3.5 and took at break - come back and its freaking 2...WTF - threw my toaster through the TV and felt better......We still see value if it gets back to 3 have the fair line at pk em....Realistically tho - can't say it is a lockkkkkkkkkkk since Stanford is 20-1 SU home last 21......The good news is that we still like the under at this 55 number....Yes we are aware that USC runs a play every 3 seconds - like Oregon but four times as fast if you listen to ESPN.....but Stanford has an excellent and both teams feature young OLs....not to mention USC D is pretty freaking good as well.....Last 2 yrs games have been 20-17 and 21--14....We think both DL have advantages over the opposing OL which will keep the scoring down.....USC lit it up last wk but this wk they get a much much stiffer test....Think Stanford has the game plan and chess pieces to keep the tempo down.....In the last 3 yrs Stanford has given up more than 28 pts TWICE - an OT debacle vs Az in 2012 and 3 OT slugfest vs USC in 2011....USC as good as they are will probably score in the mid 20s and don't see how this game gets over 55 if that is the case.....GL mega

2.73% of all CFB games land on 55 (24-21). 7th most common total number. Line dropping to 54 and 54.5. Hate to pay juice for a half point in CFB but I think it is warranted in this case.

I have one dog leaning book still offering +3 -110. I am grabbing it too. Pinny hanging +143 ML. Hmmm.

This is possibly the Pac-10 Championship game very early in the season. Both teams know it and will want the win at all costs to take the jump on the Final 4 playoff. Tight game = low scoring and less chances.

Love your write-ups and ty for posting. GLTA

Ps. sorry about your toaster. Hope you took the bread out first.
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by Vituperate:


2.73% of all CFB games land on 55 (24-21). 7th most common total number. Line dropping to 54 and 54.5. Hate to pay juice for a half point in CFB but I think it is warranted in this case.

I have one dog leaning book still offering +3 -110. I am grabbing it too. Pinny hanging +143 ML. Hmmm.

This is possibly the Pac-10 Championship game very early in the season. Both teams know it and will want the win at all costs to take the jump on the Final 4 playoff. Tight game = low scoring and less chances.

Love your write-ups and ty for posting. GLTA

Ps. sorry about your toaster. Hope you took the bread out first.
 

good stuff...GL this wk man
 
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Posted: #59
Good luck Mega!
 
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Posted: #60
BOL you sick freak

Hope all is well in MegaLand

.
 
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Posted: #61

Mega, from one friend to another, that "rod stiffening performance" stuff concerns me! Does this mean you watch the games alone?

[Quote: Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS]


 I think he may make an appearance ! GL this wk man


Tennessee 16 Ark St (51)
Number looks about right to us - even the total is pretty sharp as Ark St has a sneaky decent D....Tenn has Okla next....Ark St has a new HC and new QB....put up over 500Y in a glorified practice last wk....Still Q about their OL which concerns us quite a bit - gonna pass on this one slight leanage to the under



Illinois 6 WK (64)
Absolutely rod stiffening performance last wk by the wacky hilltoppers....new HC, missing off and def conf POYs and put up 700+ yds on a bowl team on the road .....Illinois D is brutal - looks like QB Lunt gonna fit right in and Illinois will score - we were sadly hoping for a total 58-60....and a line of 7+ .....slight lean to dog and the over but just no feel for these squads yet - pass 

 
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Posted: #62



another couple of plays

Maryland team total over 32 

Maryland is our pick if they stay healthy - to be the weasel team in the Big 10 - lots of talent - Brown back at QB - lots of speed at WR and deep at RB.....9 RS on D....So Flo has gone from 8 wins to 5 to 3 to 2 to .....well started with a win last wk vs something called Western Carolina where they gave up 454 yds on D and the Qb play was horrid....We see Maryland having no problem scoring in the mid 30s and probably get to 40....So Flo D probably worse than last yr - this will make it 5 yrs in a row of getting worse and worse....Look for lots of big plays.


Fresno team total under 26.5

Fresno got rolled for 700Y and now go to Utah - a very tough place to play - and their D is gonna be a lot closer to their standards this yr....Teams without dynamic QBs struggle to score pts at Utah...Fresno QBs averaged 4.4 yds / attempt last wk  in their rotating system and threw 4 int and 0 tD....No Utah is not USC but do not see how Fresno essentially gets 4 TD in this one.


GL ....mega
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

BOL you sick freak

Hope all is well in MegaLand


Wahoo !!  hope things are good with you buddy
 
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Posted: #64
locks bol today
Dilaudid8
 
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Posted: #65
GL this week Mega 
R.I.P. Legend
 
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Posted: #66
Thx boys. More analysis coming.

Also forgot. Fresno K left team. Walk on frosh playing this wk. probably means squat. Can't help them tho.
 
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Posted: #67
Veal Licata
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Thx boys. More analysis coming. Also forgot. Fresno K left team. Walk on frosh playing this wk. probably means squat. Can't help them tho.


:). :) let me guess, Fresno will get 2 td the most with 2 miss field goal.. Final 38-14 :)... Lol
Anyway just want to stop by and wishing u BOL this year. Alway enjoy your write up and picks..
PS
 
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Posted: #69
Really like the dog here but missed the 6 pt line hoping it creeps back up....Also have sharp unreversed public trap untrap money coming in on the Rockets....

 
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Posted: #70
boys 

Miss St 27.5 UAB 57.5
Dog and the under both 5-0L5 in the series - not sure what that means since they have not played since 2011....We see potentially big things for Miss St this yr - a yr where we believe they are gonna beat one of the big dogs....Just not sure about laying 4 TD despite that great D and QB...UAB played like a team possessed last wk - yes vs Troy - but they looked a lot better with new HC and QB....D will be better this yr - how can it not....hmmm smell a dirty dirty play in here somewhere - pass for now - probably gonna revisit - stay tuned - would love some UAB intel - did lots of digging last night - starting to drink the UAB Kool aid

NM St 1 Ga St 63
Both teams come in undefeated - first time since the Lincoln administration....Ga St gonna score some points with the new gunslinger QB...D looks brutal....NM St looks better this yr - Frosh rb Rose had 149 LW.....6 Freshman starters ....Talk in NM St land is how the pass D dominated giving up 6 passing yards (uhh...they played an option team)......Would pound the over at 58-59 dont love it here....Toss up SU we think.....Cant just avoid these donkey's games this yr - these teams might just SHOCK THE WORLD at some point - and one of them will be 2-0 next wk. pass.

 
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Posted: #71
S Alabama 3 Kent St (51)

Kent was disappointing wk 1 - a well researched 248952345 STAR MEGALOCKS SMOKESHOW TEAM TOTAL UNDER ......offsetting the half-tard monkey Boise pick ......S Alabama looks like the better team but 1)they are laying points 2) Kent has ohio st and then virginia and then at NIU...staring at 0-5 if they lose this - now that in and of itself means nothing - the only thing we care about is that this game will indeed get Kent max effort....3) may get back T Durham at RB this wk - still Q which would help 4) S Ala has not played a game yet - rusty ? new QB ? .....Now we do have the fair line at S Ala 1.5 just cant play kent the way they look and they no doubt have less talent....Was hoping for a pick em to take SA....On the fence - line looks tight,,,,,or maybe not ? ha........gonna take a pass
 
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Posted: #72
Minn 16 MTSU (52)

MTSU coming off a 6-17 tune up.....17-24L41 ATS as road dog....We have the fair line closer to 14 so just not enough value to dig deeper....Minny looks like they might be a bit dangerous if they can find some weapons in the passing game - D has been getting better and better under Kill....DL looks banged up this wk......Unsure on this one too....Slight leanage to under..
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

boys 

Miss St 27.5 UAB 57.5
Dog and the under both 5-0L5 in the series - not sure what that means since they have not played since 2011....We see potentially big things for Miss St this yr - a yr where we believe they are gonna beat one of the big dogs....Just not sure about laying 4 TD despite that great D and QB...UAB played like a team possessed last wk - yes vs Troy - but they looked a lot better with new HC and QB....D will be better this yr - how can it not....hmmm smell a dirty dirty play in here somewhere - pass for now - probably gonna revisit - stay tuned - would love some UAB intel - did lots of digging last night - starting to drink the UAB Kool aid

NM St 1 Ga St 63
Both teams come in undefeated - first time since the Lincoln administration....Ga St gonna score some points with the new gunslinger QB...D looks brutal....NM St looks better this yr - Frosh rb Rose had 149 LW.....6 Freshman starters ....Talk in NM St land is how the pass D dominated giving up 6 passing yards (uhh...they played an option team)......Would pound the over at 58-59 dont love it here....Toss up SU we think.....Cant just avoid these donkey's games this yr - these teams might just SHOCK THE WORLD at some point - and one of them will be 2-0 next wk. pass.



Adding
Miss St team total under 42.5

 
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Posted: #74

Good stuff as usual, Mega.

GL this year bud.

 
 
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Posted: #75
 Bear - you too buddy 
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