NCAA wk 3

Question

Freaks

After a monster wk 1 - came back to earth last wk - 1-2. After many yrs of this- we know that wk 2 and wk 3 are the hardest for us - and therefore - we were determined last wk to not get it up the poop chute by playing too many games...Thankfully intrepid staff member HOT CARL dealt out another steamy and creamy WINNER as Michigan made Notre Dame D look like Akron. HOT CARL was so pleased with his 2-0 start that he invited the chicks from his band camp over for a HOT CARL HOT TUB PARTY

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This wk....

Troy +7.5

These teams are pretty close IMO. We have the fair line at 5 or 6 so not a ton of perceived value but like getting the win on a 7 pt loss....Ark St has their 3rd HC in 3 yrs and really are a puzzle wrapped in an enigma...who knows?? What we do know is that they are not better without Aplin at QB.....Troy QB Robinson looks like his old self - get this - he has completed an eye popping 47-51 passes this yr with 5 TD and 0 picks

.....They have 5 rushing TD and 4 receivers with 7+ catches.....So they are gonna have zero trouble moving the ball....Their special teams are much better on paper at least....Both defenses are suspect with a probable edge to Ark St.....So what we have is a relatively even Conference game where one team is getting more than a TD...Both teams will score - and neither team will put up much resistance.....In a crazy Sun Belt trading paint game we will take the 7.5 points.

MEGA

MEGALOCKS · Answer

Freaks

After a monster wk 1 - came back to earth last wk - 1-2. After many yrs of this- we know that wk 2 and wk 3 are the hardest for us - and therefore - we were determined last wk to not get it up the poop chute by playing too many games...Thankfully intrepid staff member HOT CARL dealt out another steamy and creamy WINNER as Michigan made Notre Dame D look like Akron. HOT CARL was so pleased with his 2-0 start that he invited the chicks from his band camp over for a HOT CARL HOT TUB PARTY

.

This wk....

Troy +7.5

These teams are pretty close IMO. We have the fair line at 5 or 6 so not a ton of perceived value but like getting the win on a 7 pt loss....Ark St has their 3rd HC in 3 yrs and really are a puzzle wrapped in an enigma...who knows?? What we do know is that they are not better without Aplin at QB.....Troy QB Robinson looks like his old self - get this - he has completed an eye popping 47-51 passes this yr with 5 TD and 0 picks

.....They have 5 rushing TD and 4 receivers with 7+ catches.....So they are gonna have zero trouble moving the ball....Their special teams are much better on paper at least....Both defenses are suspect with a probable edge to Ark St.....So what we have is a relatively even Conference game where one team is getting more than a TD...Both teams will score - and neither team will put up much resistance.....In a crazy Sun Belt trading paint game we will take the 7.5 points.

MEGA

MEGALOCKS · Answer

Will post more thoughts on a lot of games like in our wk 1 thread...The hope is to help out - but more importantly - get some feedback from people and additional info to help us all make paper

LT -7.5 57

Tulane

We have fair line at 10. Dont see any value on dog which is where we always look first....Tulane has been outgained in both games including vs a girls school and at home to S Alabama...Problem with taking LT is that who really knows what they are right now?? completely different team from last yr....Like the way they ran the ball last wk...Both Ds probably stink and both offenses can move the ball OVER looks pretty tasty.

.....initial take - pass on side....LEAN over on total.

Skipster · Answer

did that crackpipe land you in the covers hoosegow?  couldn&#x27;t possibly bet on either tulane or LT.  Arsenic or strychnine.

MEGALOCKS · Answer

TCU 3 62TTechHave the fair line at 1....bit of perceived value on TT....Too many q marks here for us.....Boykin in at QB for TCU which may actually help??...TT looks like plug and play at QB anyone can put up #s....109 pts scored last yr in multiple OT game......hmmmmmm....To us just no way of knowing what the hell is gonna happen would love local insight on this one...total looks low but with Boykin at QB maybe total a bit lower....still think this game hits the high 60s.....PASS on side....slight lean OVER on total.....slight lean TT team total over if its 29.5 or less.

Tigermike1975 · Answer

Any thoughts on over the total in Troy/Ark ST or is 66.5 just a touch too high to play. I think both teams get to the 30&#x27;s here. Best of luck.

MEGALOCKS · Answer

Ya i think over if anything is the way to go - but i mean 35-31 you still lose know what i mean? total looks pretty sharp to me i always try and find games that i think i have a TD to work with and dont see that here....GL

MEGALOCKS · Answer

Air ForceBoise 23    57.5have the fair line at 19......Boise with Fresno next.....Last meeting at Boise 2YA 37-26....Problems we see here....LOVE Air Force but dating back to 2010 they are 14-26 ATS overall which is brutal...Was very disappointed last wk vs Utah St and ya its just one game - but we follow the service academy football pretty close and something just doesnt look right....D is the usual #shitshow but offensively they looked sloppy and i think they get better but wk3 at Boise not a great setup....Also Boise - i mean who really knows how good they are - tough spot Wash and got steamrolled with less than 400 yds offense - then played nobody last wk - Tough to get a read - OVER seems like the best way to go here.....PASS on side....Lean to OVER.

thorpe · Answer

This is not a good version of AF football.  Boise is no good against top 25 teams, especially on the road, but they can still pound mediocre teams at home.

MEGALOCKS · Answer

guys louisville 13    60kentuckyhave the fair line right at 13....vegas sees a 37-23 game....not sure we are confident in either of those numbers being wrong....smells like a 3TD win for Louisville but it is a rivalry game and K still a bit of an unknown.....no playakronmeechigan 37   56.5no play...akron look like turds so far......Never gonna lay 37 even tho the MEGALOCKS supercomputers projected the fair line right at 37 no its not an absurd number.....Michigan off a big win - dont see any reason to pile it on ......Akron prob gets 7 somehow mich needs 45 to cover.....ya we can see it just cant do it - NO play

Ice4Blood · Answer

Oh how I&#x27;ve missed the simple-minded approach of the Covers population...Tulane might be the worst team in CFB this year (outside of a couple of the recent newcomers)... LT has some players with skill on their sidelines...Anyone who "can&#x27;t bet on a team like LT" is simple-minded, if you can look at who they are playing and no make an adjustment to your philosophy...Tulane will be one of the worst ATS teams in CFB this year, so it doesn&#x27;t really matter who the hell they play... bet against them and you&#x27;ll most likely win money... week in and week out!

Pecador · Answer

I don&#x27;t care for the sides in any of these games but if you want some action you could always tease 7.5 pts. and have T. Tech &#x2B;10.5, Tulane and Troy both &#x2B;15.  Something small to keep meaningless games interesting. GL,   Doc

Skipster · Answer

then I&#x27;m a simpleton.  there are better plays on the board, imo.

Thoy21 · Answer

Akron is THE worst team in NCAA FB this year. Michigan up 42-0 at half.

Whiplash00 · Answer

I agree. Michigan&#39;s 2nd and 3rd stringers are better than Akron starters. 55-0.

MEGALOCKS · Answer

no doubt boys - prob michigan -21 first half line

MEGALOCKS · Answer

b greenindiana 3    63.5wow did BG ever put a beat down on Kent last wk?? new QB Matt Johnson is a machine and call us crazy but the only game left that makes us wonder is at Miss St.... Its early but they look good....Trouble is they have drastically outperformed the vegas line so far and Indiana coming off a loss to Navy....Line might have been 7&#x2B; if Indiana won a close one....Only catching 3 on the road vs Hoosiers who can really score is a ???.....total also rich at 63 but obviously the OVER is the only way you can go....hmmmmm....lean BG but probably will pass not a ton of line value IMO and chuck BG in our underdog ML wheel...lean to over on total but no play on this game right now.

MEGALOCKS · Answer

addingE Carolina / VTech under 51.5Not sure where the points are gonna come from.....We get the benefit of EC playing Old Dominion where the scoreboard was gonna go on tilt but the tempo of this one should be smashmouth.....VT has given up less than 400 yds total in 2 games and can&#x27;t throw the ball down the field....Gave up as we know a bundle of return TD to Bama and 3 last wk to a creampuff but that is impressive....Also worked in the ground game last wk - looked good - QB Thomas is still a hot mess so see a game plan of run and play great D.....EC also has an experienced D and can stack up very well against conventional teams....EC also had a bit more trouble on O last wk vs a scrappy Owl team only 16 FD.....longest completion was 18 yds....series history? outside of the 2010 abortion of 49-27....2 yrs ago 17-10 and 2009 16-3 and 2008 27-22.....big game for EC will be jacked and crazies at home help them to a great dog record which brings us to.........East Carolina &#x2B;7.5Have the fair line closer to 3.....VT is very good but this EC team has a super QB, 1000 rusher and 1000 receiver....experienced D.....good ST....and a chip on their should we think they smell it this yr as the best chance to beat VT.GL MEGA

motowner · Answer

with you on troy and ecu mega

Thoy21 · Answer

BOL Mega

Damon102 · Answer

GL this week

alwaylose · Answer

GL

Jose_Reyes · Answer

Good stuff, Mega.  BOL this week.

SoonerAction · Answer

Maryland 7 UConnMarshall 8 OhioArizona St 5.5 WiscBama 7.5 TAMUCLA &#x2B;4.5 NebFAU &#x2B;12 SFlaGA Tech 8 DukeStanford 28 ArmyUtah 3 Oregon StMega, these are my current plays.  Do you have any info or insight on any?

NCAA wk 3

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