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NCAA wk 4

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Posted: #51
Nice thread Mega Thanks for everything
 
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Posted: #52
 guys

navy 6 rutgers
Navy has always always been one of our fav teams to bet - just a money making machine more often than not - but as we have noted many times - certain teams we just try and avoid in certain spots and play on in certain spots....every game is different - but generally when trying to pair down our list - the first ones to go are typically the picks that have a team in a role that is not their best....Navy is a great road dog - over time - tested and true - as home chalk they are on a 15-24 run ATS and while of course they could truck rutgers - when you add to the equation that we have the fair line at 3.5/4 and the fact that R is up and down like a toilet seat....And Navy QB while probable is still banged up.....Smells like a no play to us....Yes Tago Smith was good at QB last wk vs Tex St - so we now feel better about the backup QB situation.....Just think you are paying a lot to take Navy....while at the same time - you need to have  to take R against one of the most amazing group of men ever assembled in football uniforms - NAVY. gotta pass - no real lean either way at this number.
 
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Posted: #53
Gracias amigo!
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #54
Colorado 7.5 Hawaii

Gut feel says Colorado trucks them but when we ran the numbers - came up with -6 even with Hawaii star RB out....it is now LAKALAKA time for hawaii  ...Their D looks at least avg - prob better than Colorado - sp teams look good....HC Chow is 9-1 ATS in non-C games as HC including home and away.....Hawaii lost a close one to Wash at home (yes to backup qb but still 1 pt loss) then lost by 8 to oregon st at home (thx to cheater refs and mob influence $$ to oregon st trust fund) ....now go on the road where they are 4-15L19 road openers...see - mixed signals here for hawaii - common knowledge is that they stink on the road - but they were 4-2ATS road doggie last yr and colorado is not a great team...we were hoping for colorado -3 or less just cant lay 7/7.5....Col has already put up 2 ATS stinkers and while we love the spot this is not gonna make our card...pass 
 
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Posted: #55
next play

Utah +6 -120

We will be at the game  Yikes. Covert cheering ??

what do we really know about michigan ? well dating back to last yr - and frankly the last number of years - they appear to be getting worse. 11--2....8-5....7-6.....this yr ?? well we still see them getting to 6/7 wins maybe 8 but utah is a potential sleeper - and we have the fair line actually close to a pick em ......saw the 6.5 and was hoping for the 7 got greedy 

Michigan beat App St and miami oh ....After all that including the debacle vs N dame they are #100 in passing and #121 in turnover margin.....D stats good tho.....Top target Funchess is Q but we assume he will play and be fine - in any event pretty sure utah can handle him given what they see in the pac 12

Utah has scored over 100 pts but vs Creampuff St and Fresno.......But we love their offensive balance - like the QB - think the HC is very underrated - coming off a bye - this would be a nice win for the program....Added bonus even tho early utah ranked #1 in Net P, #1 in KO Ret.....4-0ATSL4 vs Big10.....Michigan is 0-7L7 ATS vs Pac12....Last meeting was 2008 so mostly meaningless stat is that utah came here twice and both games were very tight.....like taking the points here - GL. mega
 
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Posted: #56
next play

utah st / ark st over 49.5

Chuckie this Chuckie that .....he was a dynamic QB for sure but the Utah St team won games without him their main strength was D (17.1 15.4 ppg L2Y) especially when Chuckie was hobbled....B/U QB is more than capable....Utah St D leaking oil - giving up 27 ppg despite playing offenses ranked 93 123 and N/A - FCS team.....They have proven they can score as well - over 80 pts in 3 games.....Ark St is ranked in the top 25 in plays/minute run pretty quick tempo....Their last 2 games vs Tenn and Miami - did ok - totals hit 53 and 61....QB is dual threat who can make plays but their WR core a bit less skilled than we want to see - but with a total this low - have to take a stab.....L3Y using a total of 49.5....Ark St is 15-3 over/under.......Utah St on the road is 14-6 to the over.....49.5 just not that hard to get in a college game when there will be a lot of snaps - not to mention fake punts where a guy plays dead - check out the Ark St video going viral if you have not seen it

In any event we see both teams getting 24+....or maybe Ark in the 30s and Utah in the 20s....GL mega
 
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Posted: #57
Funchess will be playing. Not sure bout the side but I think this will be a test for my guys. I'll be on the Under
 
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Posted: #58
Dynasty
Pains me to see them struggle. 

I agree under a good play. I was debating between side and total. 

Can't wait to get to the Big House! GL this wk. 
 
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Posted: #59
Hey Mega more coming 
 
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Posted: #60
Army 2.5 Wake (47)

have the fair line at a pk em not sure there is enough value here - the total looks a bit low - wake qb looked better LW and Army pass D is brutal...hmmmmm....Any urge to take Army tempered by 0-7SU record SU L7 vs Wake and they are overall 4-17L21 ATS away....new HC tho....WF has lookahead to ACC play - offense has looked bad - D not so bad - unsure on this one - pass but slight lean over

Louisville 26 FIU (48)

Kicking ourselves a bit for not jumping on FIU last wk had a feeling they would at least score points - but this wk we get another shot - and frankly - Louisville D is better but think at this point Pitt offense may be better - so they are essentially catching the same number - we have fair line closer to 21/22....L has allowed less than 300Y offense in all 3G....FIU QB 5 TD 0 Int have a good RB and stud TE....lean to taking the points here may revisit if hits 28. 

 
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Posted: #61
Tex AM 32 SMU (61)

Pretty sure there is a play in here somewhere As bad as we are at picking favs ATS - even we may not be able to screw this one up...SMU is pure filth and not much talent but do have the new coach angle in their favor - maybe they play with their hair on fire for a quarter and a bit....Just cannot see any way T AM does not destroy them - and believe me - we always look at the underdog for a play - but just cant see it here - Our numbers came up with a line closer to 25/26 even with no HF + for SMU....We would be peeing into the wind vs our ratings but may play this game somehow - smell something spicy in here  strong lean T AM but going to think about this one for a bit. .......MEGALOCKS tidbit - if we read the stats correctly - SMU has had 6 (SIX) guys attempt passes already and their leading rusher has 31Y. 
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Dynasty
Pains me to see them struggle. 

I agree under a good play. I was debating between side and total. 

Can't wait to get to the Big House! GL this wk. 

Nice! A weak home schedule this year but I'll be attending the PSU night game! Gluck as well. I'm obviously hoping for a Michigan win SU. Lol. 20-17

 
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Posted: #63
E Car 2.5 UNC (66)
Know what we are getting with EC - a tough squad who showed up vs SC and then beat VT at VT....NC not so sure - off a bye with revenge - but coming off a game at home in which they gave up 500+ and almost lost to SD St....UNC 0-4 as a road dog under HC.....EC in a letdown spot - too many questions - pass....have line at pk em

Kansas 3 CM (48)
No idea of what to think about CM now - gut tells us to wait until MAC play - top RB missed last game for disciplinary reasons - top WR still out....they are a scrappy bunch but could mail it in here....KU in must win according to what we read - if only b/c it could spell the end for Fat Charlie if they dont win this game....Thought they would play a bit better vs Duke.....No read on this one - pass 

Marshall 9.5 Akron (61.5)
One of those things we talk about - M just not good in certain roles - time tested - road fav 2-13L15 ATS - just a stat - but one that we will not bet on blindly - but cannot oppose it as it is so strong - also we think the Zips have a shot to keep this close - like the HC and they are off a bye....they did a decent enough job against solid penn st qb dont think Cato will carve em up at will....hmmmm....lean Akron - need to think about it.....cant deny M is 3-0 with a 134-48 margin yes against filth but still they look like advertised......waiting for 10+ to revisit....Hc only 2-6 ATS as home dog with Ak
 
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Posted: #64
one of the Harbaugh brothers will be coaching UM next year

 
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Posted: #65
last one for today

Rice 8 ODU (61.5)
was hoping for a lower total - ODU can sling it around - last wk EMich game was in a bog - 17-3 game.....Rice wants to smash somebody tough start with ND and TAM......Have the line right where it is - dont see a ton of value but would say the upside is with rice b/c there is just no way of knowing how good rice could be - pleaser players  may wanna try rice -13.5 +money. No play for now - gonna think about the total ODU may be good to give up 45+
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by motowner:

one of the Harbaugh brothers will be coaching UM next year


 
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Posted: #67

Quote Originally Posted by motowner:

one of the Harbaugh brothers will be coaching UM next year

A big wish that a Harbaugh will coach at Michigan!!

DynastyOne, how do you know Funches is playing? If he is it will really help the Wolv's.

Someone asked about Umass at Penn St and see no reply. Like the +27 I got. Umass lacks talent, but sound team. The Under will get a look too, as soon as Vegas posts it.

 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

next play

Utah +6 -120

We will be at the game  Yikes. Covert cheering ??

what do we really know about michigan ? well dating back to last yr - and frankly the last number of years - they appear to be getting worse. 11--2....8-5....7-6.....this yr ?? well we still see them getting to 6/7 wins maybe 8 but utah is a potential sleeper - and we have the fair line actually close to a pick em ......saw the 6.5 and was hoping for the 7 got greedy 

Michigan beat App St and miami oh ....After all that including the debacle vs N dame they are #100 in passing and #121 in turnover margin.....D stats good tho.....Top target Funchess is Q but we assume he will play and be fine - in any event pretty sure utah can handle him given what they see in the pac 12

Utah has scored over 100 pts but vs Creampuff St and Fresno.......But we love their offensive balance - like the QB - think the HC is very underrated - coming off a bye - this would be a nice win for the program....Added bonus even tho early utah ranked #1 in Net P, #1 in KO Ret.....4-0ATSL4 vs Big10.....Michigan is 0-7L7 ATS vs Pac12....Last meeting was 2008 so mostly meaningless stat is that utah came here twice and both games were very tight.....like taking the points here - GL. mega

I see youve been doing your research in my udml thread.....

 

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #69
 
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Posted: #70
Great read as usual. What do you think of Cincinnati -28. Cincinnati's QB looked great in his debut. Defense gave up a huge lead, and had the cover in jeopardy late. I like Cincy, interested in your thoughts. BOL this week!!
 
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Posted: #71

Mega, any thoughts re "our old reliable" Wyo Cowboys at home giving only 4 to FAU? I realize they just finished with Oregon and next game (after FAU) is at Sparty. However, I think Bohl is a good enough coach that he will get the team to focus on FAU. Plus, Cowboys play reasonably good defense, so even if they sleep walk through the first half, they should still be close.  (In Wyo's second game, against AFA, were mediocre most of first half, but looked solid (and, as you probably recall, got the cover) the second half.

BOL this week!

 
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Posted: #72
Love the utah play. Mich's offense is hot steamy garbage. At what point do they turn the page on d. Gardner?
 
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Posted: #73
They aren't going to turn the page on Gardner. Hoke is "loyal" to his seniors and although I like Shane Morris, QB isn't our only issue. We've been rotating our O-Line the first 3 weeks trying to get our best 5 guys out there.
 
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Posted: #74
Great writeups Mega...would love to see your thoughts on Clemson/FSU -20 and Indiana/Mizzou -13.5.  Mizzou is probably my favorite play this week and I want to take Clemson +20 but it feels like Vegas is begging for me to do so.
 
 
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Posted: #75
Mega, any "hairs on fire, place will be rocking" hot tub specials on the card this weekend? 
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