TCU@Texas UNDER 63 (-110) 3.3 units to win 3 units. POINTS SCORED: 64 ——> Loss -3.3 units.
Oklahoma State@Kansas UNDER 54 (-110) Risking 5.5 units to win 5 units. POINTS SCORED: 54 ——> Push.
Charlotte@Florida Atlantic OVER 60.5 (-110) Risking 3.3 units to win 3 units. POINTS SCORED: 38 ——> Loss -3.3 units.
Auburn@Georgia UNDER 43.5 (-110) Risking 5.5 units to win 5 units. POINTS SCORED: 33 ——> Win +5 units.
OVERALL: 1-2 (-1.60 units)
Not the start I was hoping for. Definitely unlucky to lose the TCU/Texas game but that happens. Oklahoma State/Kansas also could have been a win on a different day. Got the Charlotte/Florida Atlantic pick straight up wrong, as both of those offenses struggled way more than I thought they would.
10/8
Tulane@Houston UNDER 60 (-110) Risking 3.3 units to win 3 units
Tulane is coming off of a game where they scored 66 points. Most of these points came on the ground, where they rushed for over 400 yards. There isn’t a shot in hell they get even close to that in this game. Houston will be playing their first game of the season, and are bringing back lots of 3rd and 4th year players on defense. Tulane has also decided to stick with freshman QB Michael Pratt. That doesn’t really matter, because Tulane will be running the ball all night. I think the Houston defense will get off to a hot start, and will be able to slow down the Tulane run game. All of those runs will help take time off the clock.
Houston lost their star QB from last year. His replacement, Clayton Tune, leaves a lot to be desired. They still have some other offensive weapons. Overall, they won’t be able to run on Tulane at all in this game. I think they may try, as they have 2 good backs. It’s just not going to be possible against this defense. I think Tulane will be able to sit back, and have some success against the air raid offense by dropping 7-8 defensively. They will be able to get pressure on Tune as they have a really nice line. I think Tune will struggle in the season opener, and will have trouble getting his team to 30 points.
Both of these teams will score, but I think they will both struggle to hit 30. Houston may get off to a slow start with a new starting QB that didn’t look great last year, and this being their first game of the season. Tulane’s offense should come back to earth. Their run heavy style should chew plenty of clock as well.
Best trend- The total has gone under in 4 of the last 5 games between Houston and Tulane.
10/9
Louisville@Georgia Tech UNDER 64 (-110) Risking 5.5 units to win 5 units
Louisville has run the ball a lot. They rank 34th so far this season while running the ball 39 times per game. They have been picking up 4 yards per carry, while the Georgia Tech defense has given up 4 yards per carry. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham has looked pretty bad at times this year, throwing 5 interceptions. Georgia Tech has struggled against the pass, but I think they will look much better against this QB. Even if Cunningham is able to get the passing game going, Louisville will be lucky to have the ball for more than 25 minutes. He is also likely to turn the ball over deep into drives. Louisville has not been a big play team, as they are near the bottom of the nation in yards per play.
Georgia Tech’s offense has been pretty bad at scoring this season. They have struggled to even reach 20 in every game. Freshman QB Jeff Sims has looked out of place, and is yet to find his stride. Because of this, Tech has had to rely on the running game, where they have handed it off 45 times per game. Louisville has struggled against the run, so I don’t see Sims getting many chances to throw. Opponents have typically stuck with the run against Louisville so far this year, and I expect Georgia Tech to do the same. The Tech offense ranks 11th in the nation in plays per game. I think they will have long drives and control clock, as they try to win as underdogs.
To top it all off, we will be seeing light rain all throughout the night. I just don’t see this one becoming a shootout. Neither QB looks capable of driving down the field consistently, and neither team has been absolutely terrible against the run. Even though Louisville is the favorite to win, I still think they get beat badly in the possession battle. The line seems pretty far off, and I’m going with a max 5 unit play on the under.
10/10
NC State@Virginia OVER 58.5 (-110) Risking 4.4 units to win 4 units.
Virginia does have a solid defense overall, but they have been pretty poor against the pass. They will be facing an NC State squad that has had good success in the air. QB Devin Leary is coming off a really good performance and I think he continues that here.
Virginia just put up over 400 yards against Clemson. They will be going up against a pretty poor NC State defense that is giving up close to 500 yards per game. Virginia loves to do their damage through the air, as they are throwing the ball 45 times per game. This will be great for the over since NC State is giving up almost 15 yards per pass.
This has all the makings of a shootout. Virginia should be able to drive down the field at ease, and it will force NC State to air it out and do the same. This one should get past 60.
10/10
Virginia Tech@North Carolina UNDER 57.5 (-110) Risking 4.4 Units to win 4 units.
Virginia Tech may be putting up 40+ points per game, but that has been almost entirely because of their rushing attack. They have been running the ball over 45 times per game. North Carolina has been amazing against the run, allowing just over 100 yards per game. They have done it with their really nice front 7. It doesn’t matter who ends up being in at QB for VT, none of the options look great. I think North Carolina will be able to completely take away Virginia Tech’s biggest offensive strength, and that could lead to a tough afternoon.
North Carolina has had to rely heavily on their defense so far this season. QB Sam Howell has gotten off to a slow start. He is going to be put to the test since Virginia Tech is also very good against the run. This North Carolina offense should get the passing game into full gear eventually, but I don’t think it starts here.
It’s still possible we see some rain in this one too. No matter who starts for VT, both QB’s look suspect. With both teams being so good against the run, we could see more stalled drives and 3rd and long situations. Anything over 50 is just too much for this one.
Best trend- The total has gone under in 10 of North Carolina's last 13 games against Virginia Tech.
Not writing up any more today.
Tennesse@Georgia UNDER 43 (-110) Risking 5.5 units to win 5 units.
1H UNDER 21.5 (-120) Risking 2.4 units to win 2 units.
UTSA@BYU OVER 63 (-110) Risking 4.4 units to win 4 units.
Kansas State@TCU OVER 49.5 (-110) Risking 3.3 units to win 3 units.
Temple@Navy UNDER 51.5 (-110) Risking 4.4 units to win 4 units.
Miami-FL@Clemson UNDER 59.5 (-110) Risking 5.5 units to win 5 units.
1H UNDER 30 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units.
Mississippi State@Kentucky UNDER 58 (-110) Risking 4.4 units to win 4 units.
Florida State@Norte Dame OVER 53.5 (-110) Risking 4.4 units to win 4 units.
Charlotte@North Texas OVER 67 (-110) Risking 5.5 units to win 5 units.
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