Troy at FAU

FAU bit me last week as they covered as 2.5 point favorites on the road at Middle Tennesee.  I do not see that happening again this week as they welcome the Troy Trojans to Lockhart Stadium in a rematch of last years Sun Belt Conference title game that saw a 38-32 FAU victory. 

Starting with FAU tonight.  The struggles of the FAU offense cannot be understated!  This is a team that is averaging 15 ppg and that number includes a 49 point effort against UAB.  Take away that outburst and this team has scored a total of 16 points in their last three, for a whopping 5.3 ppg.  The troubles start under center as QB Rusty Smith has been nothing short of pathetic thus far.  He is completing only 48% of his attempts for a total of 1084 yards.  To make matters worse he has tossed 7 interceptions against 4 TDs.  The FAU offense is averaging 343 total yards per game which places them 78th nationally and that inflated 15 ppg number ranks them 117th.  Behind Smith is RB Charles Pierre who heading into last weeks contest was the leading rusher and #1 carrier on the team.  He has only 309 yards and 2 TDs through 5 games which is low by any standard.  At 62 yards per game how much can you actually expect out of the guy?  Last week at MTenn however, he was even worse as he manged only 41 yards on the ground.  Out of that game emerged DiIvory Edgecomb who put up 101 yards and a TD.  It wil be interesting to see which one is the feature back tonight.  Bottom line whoever lines up in the backfield is this, with the exception of an offensive explosion on UAB, this FAU offensive unit is pitiful at best.  I don't think it matters who or where you play, when you are averaging only 15 ppg you will lose alot more than you win.  Unless, of course, you have a very stoudt and aggressive defense.  Unfortuneatly for FAU their defense is neither stoudt or aggressive.  They have been just as poor as the offense as they are allowing 419 yards per game which puts them 101st nationally.  On that 419 yards they are allowing 31 ppg placing them 100th nationally.  They have only 4 turnovers and 6 sacks through their first five games.  As a whole, this FAU team is not that good.  Their power ranking (96th) is at 11.10 and that again is taking into account the UAB game.

As far as Troy is concerned, they are chomping at the bit to get at this FAU team.  The bitter taste in their mouth from last year has yet to dissapaite and only with a sound thumping tonight can they finally spit that sourness out.  Also, they are grateful to have an opportunity to play a team that is not in the Top 20 Nationally in either Polls or Power Ranking!  Offensively the team is putting up 442 yards per game which places them 21st nationally and they are posting 32 ppg as a result of that and are ranked 32nd nationally in scoring.  They are led by QB Jamie Hampton who is a duel threat in the backfield as he has completed 63% of his passes this year and has also gained 175 yards on the ground.  Hampton, like Rusty Smith, has had issues with the pick as he has 7 interceptions against 9 TDs thus far.  Along with Hampton is RB DuJuan Harris who has 3 TDs and 282 yards so far in this campaign.  Defensively the Trojans are allowing 331 yards per game (46th nationally) and 25 points per game (66th nationally).  Their amjor issue is in the red zone where they have allowed opponents to convert at an amazing 86% clip!  I would say however that the overwhelming majority of that statistical data came against two nationally Ranked opponents on the road in Ohio State and Oklahoma State. 

In the end, I see a Troy team that has played some tough, tough competition and is looking for revenge from last years conference championship against a team that has no offensive firepower whatsoever.  Troy has played the 11th and 17th power ranke=ing teams in the country on the road and I beleive they are better for it.  The one common opponent this year for these two ahs been MTenn on the road.  Troy was a 6 point favorite on the road at MTenn and came away as 14 point victors winning both SU and ATS.  Conversely FAU traveled to MTenn as 2.5 point dawgs and came away as 1 point losers winning ATS but losing SU.  To me, that is a key thing to look at.  Both traveled to MTenn and one (Troy) was a 6 point road favorite while one (FAU) was a 2.5 point road dawg.  Finally, road favorites have been hitting at a 76% clip SU this year and a 54% clip ATS.  The 76% clip SU is extremely tasty because the way I see it, if you win SU you will usually cover a FG.  Look for TROY to take care of business tonight, and despite what has become a Tuesday night trend, look for this total to clear 51 as Troy should have little to no problem putting points on the board tonight. 

Some intersting trends for tonight:

The OVER is 5-0 in FAU’s last 5 home games.

Troy is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 conference games.

Troy is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 road games.