Posted:
#51
You really brought value by going 0-1 in this thread 
1
New Mexico ML +385
Posted:
#52
Quote Originally Posted by Tiltmachine23:
Quote Originally Posted by RealExpert: @BrittanyWVU It’s worth it to help people to see how you can take advantage of in game scenarios. The key is to be on the right side early. Let’s see what happens with SMU. We want them up by 14 or 21 at some point in the first half. It’s like trading options in the stock market. The goal is to not care who wins the game in the end because you are positive profit on both sides or have a middle. Quote Originally Posted by RealExpert: @OneADayJ Ha at that time I was, but it wasn’t over 20-1. How can you pass that up when your original play on the other side is 4-1? It’s math, which doesn’t have emotion. If you don’t take that and guarantee yourself profit or preserve capital, which no one should have to tell you to do, then you really shouldn’t be betting. Every play I make, I am looking to hedge original capital if the circumstances allow. I will try to post all hedges when I see it, but sometimes I am playing both sides throughout the whole game. Again, it’s about the math, not who you are rooting for or to boast about a record. I will do a live strategy for SMU. Just trying to bring some value and what I have learned over the years to people. hilarious to claim you’re trying to bring value, but don’t post the hedge play until it’s clear your posted play is going to lose. Also as someone who hedges regularly, it’s bizarre that you stood to make more money on the hedge than your conviction play. I, and most people I know that hedge, hedge to ensure a profit or maybe even to ensure a similiar profit on either side, but to hedge in a manner so that you win MORE on the other side is questionable at best
Quote Originally Posted by RealExpert: @BrittanyWVU It’s worth it to help people to see how you can take advantage of in game scenarios. The key is to be on the right side early. Let’s see what happens with SMU. We want them up by 14 or 21 at some point in the first half. It’s like trading options in the stock market. The goal is to not care who wins the game in the end because you are positive profit on both sides or have a middle. Quote Originally Posted by RealExpert: @OneADayJ Ha at that time I was, but it wasn’t over 20-1. How can you pass that up when your original play on the other side is 4-1? It’s math, which doesn’t have emotion. If you don’t take that and guarantee yourself profit or preserve capital, which no one should have to tell you to do, then you really shouldn’t be betting. Every play I make, I am looking to hedge original capital if the circumstances allow. I will try to post all hedges when I see it, but sometimes I am playing both sides throughout the whole game. Again, it’s about the math, not who you are rooting for or to boast about a record. I will do a live strategy for SMU. Just trying to bring some value and what I have learned over the years to people. hilarious to claim you’re trying to bring value, but don’t post the hedge play until it’s clear your posted play is going to lose. Also as someone who hedges regularly, it’s bizarre that you stood to make more money on the hedge than your conviction play. I, and most people I know that hedge, hedge to ensure a profit or maybe even to ensure a similiar profit on either side, but to hedge in a manner so that you win MORE on the other side is questionable at best
CLEARLY obvious the OP is a straight up 
1
Posted:
#56
@RealExpert
Tv break so a second to explain the math. My original was ~4-1. Opposite side for to 20-1. I only have to put 20% of my original bet on the 20-1 to recoup my initial bet. Why not put 50% of my original bet amount at 20-1 on the other side.
$100 at 4-1 pays $400
$50 at 20-1 pays $1,000
if 4-1 wins I win $350
if 20-1 wins I win $900
0
Posted:
#57
Quote Originally Posted by RealExpert:
@Tiltmachine23 Ha it’s just math guys. I have no conviction. I watch for value.
@Tiltmachine23 Ha it’s just math guys. I have no conviction. I watch for value.
it’s just math? The math is that you’re paying juice on both sides when you hedge. When it’s +2000 on Montana State it’s -5000 on on New Mexico. You think “math” supports pounding the +2000 as though the book is offering +ev there. I’m quite sure the math is against the hedge, it’s only justifiable if you can see something that the numbers and algorithms don’t capture.
Again, you might hedge to ensure some profit but why you’d bet enough on MS to make more than you’d make on New Mexico when the juice is higher (hence the huge spread between +2000 vs -5000) makes no sense from a mathematical perspective.
0
Posted:
#62
@warrenator
Nope you win units and he lost units…you sat back and didn’t have to watch after the first quarter and collected your easy winnings….he thought he was going to look cool, then thought he was coasting to a win, then his butt puckered when things got tight, then he lost and tried to cover himself like all “cool” people do…you were the COOL one sitting pretty with a few units and only having to watch the game for 30 mins…niceeeeee!
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