New Mexico ML +385

You really brought value by going 0-1 in this thread 

CLEARLY obvious the OP is a straight up 

@Tiltmachine23

 Ha it’s just math guys. I have no conviction. I watch for value. 

@osubucks1

 Think what you want. I don’t care. 

@OneADayJ

 Like I said, I will stay live on games I post from here on out. I am shocked I would have to tell someone to hedge something when the odds on the other side are over 20-1. 

@RealExpert

 Tv break so a second to explain the math. My original was ~4-1. Opposite side for to 20-1. I only have to put 20% of my original bet on the 20-1 to recoup my initial bet. Why not put 50% of my original bet amount at 20-1 on the other side. 

$100 at 4-1 pays $400 

$50 at 20-1 pays $1,000 

if 4-1 wins I win $350 

if 20-1 wins I win $900

it’s just math? The math is that you’re paying juice on both sides when you hedge. When it’s +2000 on Montana State it’s -5000 on on New Mexico. You think “math” supports pounding the +2000 as though the book is offering +ev there. I’m quite sure the math is against the hedge, it’s only justifiable if you can see something that the numbers and algorithms don’t capture. 

Again, you might hedge to ensure some profit but why you’d bet enough on MS to make more than you’d make on New Mexico when the juice is higher (hence the huge spread between +2000 vs -5000) makes no sense from a mathematical perspective.  

I don't think anyone's disputing the hedge more the appearance of playing both sides to be right on the forum.

Neither your original post nor initial two defenses of your reasoning hinted at your live bet hedge strategy.  Now that the bet lost you've abandoned what was a cheeky play that only needed to hit 20.62% to be profitable.

I stand by it being a good play and but for a classic underdog butthole pucker job it would've hit.

My idea of value was getting +14 with NM, and not needeing to worry when they were up big...only pays -110 though so I may be a sucker

Games over !!!! LET IT GO...MOVE ON!!!

@warrenator

 That's what I did.  But when they blew it, the +270 coming the other way for the win was the back up plan.  Net push.

@warrenator

 Nope you win units and he lost units…you sat back and didn’t have to watch after the first quarter and collected your easy winnings….he thought he was going to look cool, then thought he was coasting to a win, then his butt puckered when things got tight, then he lost and tried to cover himself like all “cool” people do…you were the COOL one sitting pretty with a few units and only having to watch the game for 30 mins…niceeeeee!