46-47
Ok, two posted wins in a row now with the Raiders over the Jets and Utah covering against Arizona (even after losing our starting QB). So let's make it 3!
I know you know none of these players and likely don't know the teams so you want to close the thread. But this is my speciality. Columbia had the game well in hand last week up 14-0 and penalties and late turnovers put that game inside the 4.5 pt spread after a 17-14 Columbia win. That game opened at 3 and it was my responsibility to get in sooner.
But this game is even more attractive. It's off the grid and therefore, has a more than likely chance to have a line that is in our favor, IF we choose the right side. Books simply can't capture all the idiosyncrasies of these teams when Bama and Michigan are taking all the handle.
What is my pick here? Delaware State.
We are getting almost a full TD (+6.5) AT HOME. So I'll give my lightening quick hit pointers a read and see if you like it. If you cannot find this game, no need to read. If you have a 5Dimes account, go to College Extra and it's there.
Here are the reasons why I think this line is too big for Norfolk State to lay and why we are taking the Hornets:
1. The Hornets are on a 16 game losing streak. EVERYONE here who knows me knows I LOVE backing teams on long losing streaks. Jumping on the wagon at the right time (with a big spread in a favorable spot like this one), is what will bring home the money.
So the spread of +6.5 at home is without a doubt, a product of this losing streak and it shouldn't be this high for the reasons below. So I believe Delaware State can not only cover, but they can win outright. When you get a line like 6.5, you should believe your team can WIN, and then 6.5 is pretty massive. If you only believe they can cover with +6.5 that window of winning shrinks considerably. I think DSU can win. Why?
2. Norfolk State has not scored an offensive TD this year. It's been all kickoff returns. They've scored 30 points (10 pts a game) in three games but it's come on 100 yard kickoff returns, fumble recoveries in the end zone and field goals.
3. Norfolk State is 0-3 like Delaware State, except one of their losses came against the Virginia State Trojans who are not even an FCS team. They are in Division II. Is Virginia State total trash? No. But as an example, even James Madison (FCS Champs) was at one point a 3 point dog to the abhorrent East Carolina (Yes that line was all over the place, I know.).
4. This is the most winnable game on the Hornets schedule. Morgan State can be beat later in the year as well but does DSU really want to go into that game with a 22 game losing streak weighing them down even more? Now is the time and the opponent is right. The team should come out fighting because of this.
5. This is DSU's home opener. Their first three games came on the road in a scheduling. For what it's worth, that's something for DSU to lean on and more fans than not will show up (however many that would be for a team on a 16 game losing streak). Any familiarity of home confines is a plus especially after all that travel.
6. DSU is most certainly not as bad as last year's winless season. In fact, the evidence shows they are better and ready to break this streak given their play over the last 3.
The best evidence of that comes against Delaware in the season opener. Delaware always gashes their little sister DSU but this year Delaware only prevailed 22-3. DSU was quite spunky on defense as Delaware only put it away with 6 minutes in the 4th, quite an accomplishment for what should have been a blowout (56-14 loss to Delaware last year and this one didn't compare).
Also, DSU played admirably against a top FBS team in West Virginia on the road in the first half.
Last year as 50 point dogs, they lost to Missouri (and we know how much Missouri struggled last year) 79-0. This year as 56 pt dogs, they were comfortably inside the spread at 59-16 (and actually were tied 7-7 after an 80 yard score). The fact DSU even SCORED a TD was a major accomplishment as many books has this capped as a blowout shutout.
7. DSU is 3-0 ATS
They've paid bettors more than Bama backers.
+35 against Delaware covers 22-3.
+14 over Hampton covers 28-15.
+56 over WVU covers 59-16.
As you can see, some of these numbers are way off in DSU's favor. And I believe it off to be here.
It's like Elvis said: It's NOW OR NEVER for DSU and you have to love the fact, psychologically, this team should leave it all out on the field against a team that is as bad as it is, and we are getting 6.5 at home!
Delaware State Hornets +6.5 over Norfolk State at 2pm EST