nostradamus week 3

UCF  La Tech.   Ohio St.  

great last week, keep up the good work.

hey guys...new on here......just watching from the sidelines this year....may post a pick here and there but really have to work on my discipline....sometimes a bit of paralysis by analysis.....took big hits on NW and MD on sat...too much tied to them.

wondering what your thoughts are on routinely buying hooks? is it always done for key numbers? helps me sleep at night for a small price.
love and appreciate your posts NOS ........great info and trailing on some picks. thanks for sharing!

all - appreciate it, BOL

big - leaning towards GSU in that one....new offense working pretty well, familiar with option in past and decent matchups against Wofford, Navy over past couple, played NCS even....maybe 34-17 or 34-20 type

puffkit - best to keep hooks to minimum maybe 5% of less of games....not bad idea on 3 or 7 though from time to time....personally 10-12 games a year out of 200 including bowls...figure need push on just 1 of the 10 to break even....can buy on a couple more if getting -108 on some books and can buy cheap once in awhile if -105 and still average -110...overall though best to be selective on a few games a year

actually only 8-2 on 0.5 small plays, unfortunately hitting 8 in a row means run probably ends soon there.....still waiting on a couple numbers to be posted...c'mon damn it...... and checking out a couple totals or team totals

Great Job my Much respected Brother ..

how are you feeling about texas a&m and baylor?

Nice work 

GL

Very Impressive capping. Love Ohio State this week. Kent State is absolutely miserable & they should get shut out. 38-3 type of game. You did GREAT grabbing it at -29.5 because it's at 31.5 now and expect it to be around 33 by game time. Urban Meyer is 14-6 ATS after a loss & they will figure it out against a very bad football team & dominate the trenches.

LA Tech man this line has dropped to 3.5 great job again here. Don't know much about either team.

Actually I do LOVE Ohio this week. They are getting 20.5 vs Marshall? Marshall has looked pretty bleak this year. They were up 28-3 at half on a bad Miami OH team before getting outscored 17-0 in third quarter. Ohio has absolutely owned them the past few years. I expect a close game. Far too many points. Ohio will run the football. Marshall has lost 3 straight to Ohio, two at home. They just seem to have their number. Marshall's schedule is weaker Kevin Durant trying to rep 185. Sprinkle some on the Ohio ML for GREAT VALUE.

Also think it's a pretty good spot for East Carolina catching 11.5 this week after VT's big emotional road win. ECU has played them tight in the past & think VT comes out flat here. Don't see them winning by more than 10. Not sold on them after beating an overrated OSU w/ no QB.

As a WVU fan we're way better than last year & Maryland beat us 37-0 last year but they're only laying 3 against us? Hmm. That's fishy. WVU is the play. Trickett learned the system and has looked great this year. Much improvement on the defensive side of the ball w/ Tom Bradley coming in. Revenge game for WVU. They won't be overlooking to Oklahoma bc Holgorsen is coaching for his job.

I like Massachusetts +17 at Vandy. Not really sure how a team like Vandy can be laying 17 even against a Middle School. They've scored ZERO offensive touchdowns on the year. They're abysmal again after winning 9 games the two previous years. New coach is a disaster.

Georgia/South Carolina HUGE OVER play if it's anything less than 62. South Carolina defense is weak & Georgia can run and pass on them. Looks kinda suckerish maybe to take Georgia so the OVER is the safest play in this game. Mark Richt loves blowing games likes these...

I also think Florida clown stomps Kentucky this year. Line is -18.5 now. Don't see Florida being held under 30, don't see Kentucky scoring 10.

Ohh and Arizona might score 65 on Nevada. That is all I'll stop rambling. Thanks for the thread.

double, mega, mjm, QB -

lego -was looking at Baylor if 24 or 25 figuring 52-20 type, possibly worse.....however at 32+ Bulls could hang around back door with Licata slinging it around and if Bears let up in 4th, so we'll pass....A&M similar situation, could easily run them off field although have been known to let Rice and similar hang around number

degen - thanks, yeah looks like some other early money was on those too...agree with most of your thoughts on the others....Ohio defense looks much improved this year so leaning towards points there as well......agree good spot for ECU and decent enough squad to hang around if VT is flat and probably will be.....was actually looking at that WV-MD matchup and had some of those same thoughts, number edging up to 3.5-4 some places so seeing what it does.....no lean on UMASS-Vandy......like UGA although believe will be tough game, for whatever reason though high scoring series in Athens and low scoring in SC so no lean on total......FL owns the series and should be fired up, KY improved however offense probably overmatched in this one, was hoping for 14-15 would still lean FL

adding

Cincinnati -10 (-115)

Tulsa PK (0.75)

Cincinnati 37 Toledo 17 - Bearcats probably ready to hit someone after waiting a couple weeks...will be interesting to see Kiel in first start....as long as Munchie is 3rd string that's a good sign he won't play....quite a few players still around for revenge spot for 29-23 loss (despite 478-355 yardage) at Toledo in '12....Rockets not great at QB and defense mediocre at best and missing a couple DBs

Tulsa 30 FAU 23 - although not great at this point Tulsa seems more likely to make a few plays based on QB and WRs....and has played pretty well on the road against lesser teams going 6-1 straight up against teams with losing records over last 3 years

waiting on a couple others and checking out some totals

Seems reasonable, but Mizzou is the #3 team in the country ATS over the past two years. Not touching it, too risky. I can easily see Mizzou beating UCF by 21+.

g southern for me ,

hey NOS....thoughts on boise/uconn total u49. boise traveling east and playing early.....uconn lost starting qb (didnt play last week and O struggled against stonybrook...1 O td.). looking prime for under or at least 1/2h under with boise still waking up.

treble-very possible MO wins by 3 TDs if Holman is rattled

NC-what's going on buddy, GL this week

puffkit- hadn't really looked at that....at 16/49....totals project as 32.5-16.5....which sounds about right although not sure Huskies get to 17 so maybe lean under

adding small play.....West VA +3.5.....WV offense looking much improved and looking for payback for 37-0 matchup LY, not impressed with turtles....WV 27-24........small degenerate play......WMU-Idaho over 59.5.....give both offenses advantage over defenses having faced better last time out.....37-33

looking at a couple totals or team totals Fri or Sat

updated week 3

Ohio St -29.5 (1.5)

Mississippi -26 (1.25)

Georgia -3 (hook)

Cincinnati -10 (-115)

Tulsa PK (0.75)

LA Tech +6.5 (0.75)

UCF +10 (-115) (0.75)

small plays (0.5) - Texas St +12.5, West VA +3.5

small degenerate plays (0.3) - WMU-Idaho o59.5

I respect your thoughts every week.  Good luck, Chuck

Good luck this week, nos.      

Great info and thanks for the input

Georgia southern covers, they both runs the option. Clock going to be running

There snoop is. Keep up the great work and gl

I like Toledo and the 11.. QB should be able to fill in and just don't like a team playing for the first time against a 2 game team... Good Luck

Like the Ole Miss and Georgia picks - GL my man!

Hey bud would you still

all

CB -  you got it buddy...Now, that, I got me some Seagram's gin
Everybody got they cups, but they ain't chipped in

pipe - agree with those points....not much drop if any between Rockets 1st and 2nd string (although does not mean either is proven good)......and agree having played a couple games is an advantage...at least for 1st Q which could carry over into full game....on the other hand EMU had a game under their belt against FL and some other examples so can work either way since Cats should be ready after first couple possessions

BTP - probably would, although would obviously be for lower amount since 3-6 range covers a lot of ground in what could be a close game, however still like bulldogs at less than TD

LT backers......mixed in some unofficial ML

adding

Oklahoma St -13 (-115)

Oklahoma St 34 UTSA 13 - although Walsh is out, appear Garman has a good arm and played pretty well last week....Gundy 'I'm a man....I'm 40!' claims team was really flat last week and sounds like they'll be ready....Roland (probable) back at RB and even though UTSA defense is pretty solid the same group did give up a few in last year's 56-35 back door cover....offense still unproven against the better defenses and on the road

looking at some totals and team totals tomorrow.....time to check out some week 4 matchups

 

Gl Nostra