Observations and Week 14 Ponderings

Awesome write ups as usual.

thanks buddy,  I've been looking something like this all morning

Usually this week is a dog week. Can't bet on favors based on previous weeks

@Crusher13

 Happy holidays to you too brother!

@umgmu

 Glad to be able to make a contribution to the forum! Happy holidays to you too my friend! 

@ToneKapone13

 Cool! Good to hear. 

@CKP22

@softrocky

Whittling down the Saturday slate:

CLEMSON (-2') vs South Carolina - Stakes are huge in this one with CFP implications for both teams. Gamecocks are the hotter team right now, having won five straight games (4-1 ATS), they're 4-0 ATS on the road this year, and Dabo Swinney is 0-4 vs ranked South Carolina teams. Also, other than Georgia in the season opener, this is the best team Clemson has faced this year, while South Carolina has been battle tested in the SEC. The 'Cocks have one of the best defensive fronts in the country, going up against an offensive line that's been banged up and has had a lot of moving parts. I'm really liking South Carolina here.

Louisville (-3') at KENTUCKY - Still leaning Wildcats, mainly because the Cardinals suck as road or neutral chalk (1-8-1 ATS the last two years). Probably won't play it though.

Tennessee (-11) at VANDERBILT - Commodores have been a money maker as a dog this year, going 7-1 ATS, with four outright wins, and they're a perfect 5-0 when catching double digits! The Vols rolled over their nonconference schedule, but have found the going a lot tougher in SEC play. They're 5-2 SU, but just 2-5 ATS (1-4 as chalk), and other than woeful Mississippi St. haven't beaten any opponent by more than ten points. Tennessee has won the last five meetings, but this is by far the best Commodores team they've faced. I'm liking Vanderbilt here.

Odu (-4) at ARKANSAS ST. - Still leaning Red Wolves here on Senior Day, mainly because I'll never back a favorite that's playing out the string.

Miami FL (-11) at SYRACUSE - Leaning Hurricanes here, but very cautiously. While they've been dominant statistically, they've had a habit of playing with their food. If this game were outdoors I'd be all over 'Cuse.

ALABAMA (-10', down from +11') vs Auburn - This one is a late addition, and I'm leaning Auburn. They need an outright win for bowl eligibility, and I'm not sure what to make of the Crimson Tide. I do know they're on the outside looking in at the CFP after that shocking loss at Oklahoma. And they lost their best defensive player, LB Deontae Lawson, in that game. The Tigers are making a late run, winning three of their last four. Hmmm.

More coming.

When in doubt, I love playing Teasers in CFB. Those extra 6 points ALWAYS help the cushion. I would love to play Cocks but Clemson has so much more to gain with a convincing win over their archival.

Look for the REAL Miami to show up today. Taking Vandy to keep it close vs Vols..love that at +17 with always dangerous Pavia at helm. Looking forward to you narrowing your card

GL

More Saturday whittling:

MISSOURI (-3) vs Arkansas - Still leaning Tigers, who have dominated this series and have won 14 of their last 15 home games. But the Hogs are 4-0 ATS on the road this year, and 5-2 ATS as a dog. 

SMU (-13') vs California - Justin Wilcox is 16-7 ATS as a double digit dog with Cal, including 2-0 this year, and while they've lost five games, none of them have been by more than eight points. Plus, the Golden Bears have a +13 turnover margin and the ACC's top scoring defense. The Mustangs are already in the ACC title game next week, but like Tulane on Thanksgiving Day and Georgia yesterday (teams that have title game appearances locked up), they may be looking ahead just a bit. I really like California here.

UCLA (-8', down from -9') vs Fresno St - I just don't get this line. The Bruins are just 1-10-1 ATS in their last dozen home finales, and have to be deflated after getting knocked out of the bowl picture by USC last week. Fresno St. SHOULD be the play here.

Notre Dame (-7, down from -7') at USC - Hard to believe, but this is just the third true road game for the Irish, who have played at three neutral site venues, the latest at Yankee Stadium where they waxed Army, 49-14. Now they have to travel clear across the country to face a Trojans team that's led in the fourth quarter of every game they've played in this year! The home team is 9-1 SU and ATS in the last ten meetings, and QB Jayden Maiava has given the Trojans a spark in their last two games, both wins. I like USC here.

Night games to come.

I strongly disagree. South Carolina could play their way in to the CFP with a win today, depending on what happens elsewhere. This is their best chance to do so since they won't be playing in a conference championship game. Clemson is hoping for a Miami loss today (certainly possible) to get in to the ACC title game. Gamecocks are battle tested against teams that are better than Clemson, and the Tigers have lost to the two best teams they've played, Georgia and Louisville. Gimme the SEC dog here. BOL

@Robards

Saturday night

IOWA ST. (-2') vs Kansas St. - Still leaning Kansas St. but I liked it better at +3. They MAY be the best team in the Big 12, but they've been banged up.

Texas (-5, down from -5') at TEXAS A&M - Another late add. Quinn Ewers' ankle injury could be problematic facing a fierce Aggies pass rush. Longhorns have been dominant statistically, but are just 2-5 ATS all as chalk. This is a renewal of an old storied rivalry, and the Aggies are a dog for the first time this season. Should be an electric atmosphere.I like Texas A&M and they may spring the upset.

BYU (-13) vs Houston - By the time this game kicks off the Cougars should have a good idea of where they stand in the Big 12. At any rate BYU should roll here.

Good stuff as always!

@mjm1012