Posted:
#1
Everyone knows that Urban Meyer off a bye is good, but how good? I did some work on his success after a bye week(all manual labor, no sdql) I went back to 2003 when he was hired by the Utes. 4 times in this span his team had 2 bye weeks in a season, Utah had 3 byes in 2003 for whatever reason.
Also I did all this research 2 days ago when the spread was still at 6, so any ats stuff was with that line considered.
So from 2003 to 2016, Urban Mejer is 19-0 SU, 17-2 ats in covering a line of -6. Average score 37.75-16.09.
Official ats record off a bye with the given line to the particular game, with Ohio State= 4-3. But the average chalk they were laying in those 7 games was -21.86.
Official ats record off a bye with Florida= 6-1-1 and laying an average of -8.81.
Official ats record off a bye with Utah= 3-0-1 and laying an average of -12.37. *Sept 27th, 2003 was the one and only time Urban Meyer was a dog coming off a bye. Utah was +4.5 @ Colorado State and won 28-21*
One question I asked myself before laying -225 on the ML...
"Do I want to be the genius to try and guess Urban Meyer's first loss ever off a bye week"?
Answer="No"
Second question, "Is laying -225 too expensive"?
Answer="Every ML is all relative to the win/loss probability" A -225 line suggests a 69.23% chance of winning. Urban Mejer provides us with a 100% SU trend, and it's been battle tested for 13 f*cking years and 19 straight games.
Additional Thoughts on today's game:
We have a bunch of angle's in this game, a buncha revenge talk(for both sides)
Will Ohio State want revenge? Yes. Will Penn State want revenge for getting snubbed last year despite beating them? Yes.
Is Penn State in a letdown spot after whooping Michigan? Maybe. Honestly, I take motivation out of the equation in this game. BOTH teams will be 100% motivated for this one. It's a wash imo.
What we can look at is some situational stuff and why the public and or sharps, you and me, talking heads on tv...who f*cking ever is seeing an forming an opinion on who wins or covers and why.
I asked myself, what kind of Michigan team did Penn State actually face last week, coming into their house, into the white out. Michigan was/is a team who's defense has been carrying them the whole season. Too much weight against them, the levy broke. They were also coming into that contest off of an overtime game @ Indiana. Before that a rivalry game w/ Sparty. So they faced an offensively retarded Michigan team, off a rivalry, off an OT, b2b road...
Kinda the opposite of what they face today in the Buckey's ay? Off a bye, and have to walk into the shoe. I'm no expert, but this might be the kind of situation where the term "Run into a buzzsaw" came from.
Look at the Buckeye's remaining schedule, ask yourself what's the single most important game left...it's this one, and by a mile.
Other important factors:
J.T. Barrett QBR=173.7(#5 in the country)
Trace McSorely=155(#20)
Penn State's best player? Best player in the country is....Saquon Barkley. Can't argue that can we? What did Indiana do to hold him to 2.8 ypc?
Defensive line played a big part. IU's Adjusted Line Yards rating for their D line is 120.4, which is 19th best in the country. Their Opportunity Rate(which measures the % of carries that allow 5 or more yards) is 37% which ranks 57th.
Ohio State's D line will be the toughest challenge for Penn State to date. Their Adjusted LY rating is 143.9 which ranks 2nd. Their Opp Rate is 26.2% which ranks 2nd.
For those of you who know, it all starts in the trenches. If they can slow down Saquon which I think is perfectly plausible to think, the game goes on McSorely's shoulders. His O line gives up a 13.5% sack rate in passing situations, which ranks 118th. Up against the 4 beasts on Ohio State's d line will be challenging.
The Plays(all ready posted in my thread)
Ohio State 1H -3.5(-105) *1.25/1.19
Ohio State -6(-110) *1.10/1.00
Ohio State ML(-225) *7.50/3.33
Good Luck Folks
0
(THX for the write up SAC)
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