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Ohio State ML and Why

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Posted: #26
Amazing write up and research.  

Sometimes, a regression to the mean must occur.

Nobody...nobody is perfect forever.

PM for the skinny on the down low
 
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Posted: #27
SOrry to burst all you  worthless nuts  backers   but  PENN STATE   WILL win this game

 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Everyone knows that Urban Meyer off a bye is good, but how good? I did some work on his success after a bye week(all manual labor, no sdql) I went back to 2003 when he was hired by the Utes. 4 times in this span his team had 2 bye weeks in a season, Utah had 3 byes in 2003 for whatever reason.

Also I did all this research 2 days ago when the spread was still at 6, so any ats stuff was with that line considered.

So from 2003 to 2016, Urban Mejer is 19-0 SU, 17-2 ats in covering a line of -6. Average score 37.75-16.09.

Official ats record off a bye with the given line to the particular game, with Ohio State= 4-3. But the average chalk they were laying in those 7 games was -21.86.

Official ats record off a bye with Florida= 6-1-1 and laying an average of -8.81.

Official ats record off a bye with Utah= 3-0-1 and laying an average of -12.37. *Sept 27th, 2003 was the one and only time Urban Meyer was a dog coming off a bye. Utah was +4.5 @ Colorado State and won 28-21*

One question I asked myself before laying -225 on the ML...

"Do I want to be the genius to try and guess Urban Meyer's first loss ever off a bye week"?

Answer="No"

Second question, "Is laying -225 too expensive"?

Answer="Every ML is all relative to the win/loss probability" A -225 line suggests a 69.23% chance of winning. Urban Mejer provides us with a 100% SU trend, and it's been battle tested for 13 f*cking years and 19 straight games.


Additional Thoughts on today's game:

We have a bunch of angle's in this game, a buncha revenge talk(for both sides)

Will Ohio State want revenge? Yes. Will Penn State want revenge for getting snubbed last year despite beating them? Yes.

Is Penn State in a letdown spot after whooping Michigan? Maybe. Honestly, I take motivation out of the equation in this game. BOTH teams will be 100% motivated for this one. It's a wash imo.

What we can look at is some situational stuff and why the public and or sharps, you and me, talking heads on tv...who f*cking ever is seeing an forming an opinion on who wins or covers and why.

I asked myself, what kind of Michigan team did Penn State actually face last week, coming into their house, into the white out. Michigan was/is a team who's defense has been carrying them the whole season. Too much weight against them, the levy broke. They were also coming into that contest off of an overtime game @ Indiana. Before that a rivalry game w/ Sparty. So they faced an offensively retarded Michigan team, off a rivalry, off an OT, b2b road...

Kinda the opposite of what they face today in the Buckey's ay? Off a bye, and have to walk into the shoe. I'm no expert, but this might be the kind of situation where the term "Run into a buzzsaw" came from.

Look at the Buckeye's remaining schedule, ask yourself what's the single most important game left...it's this one, and by a mile. 

Other important factors:

J.T. Barrett QBR=173.7(#5 in the country)
Trace McSorely=155(#20)

Penn State's best player? Best player in the country is....Saquon Barkley. Can't argue that can we? What did Indiana do to hold him to 2.8 ypc?

Defensive line played a big part. IU's Adjusted Line Yards rating for their D line is 120.4, which is 19th best in the country. Their Opportunity Rate(which measures the % of carries that allow 5 or more yards) is 37% which ranks 57th.

Ohio State's D line will be the toughest challenge for Penn State to date. Their Adjusted LY rating is 143.9 which ranks 2nd. Their Opp Rate is 26.2% which ranks 2nd.

For those of you who know, it all starts in the trenches. If they can slow down Saquon which I think is perfectly plausible to think, the game goes on McSorely's shoulders. His O line gives up a 13.5% sack rate in passing situations, which ranks 118th. Up against the 4 beasts on Ohio State's d line will be challenging.


The Plays(all ready posted in my thread)

Ohio State 1H -3.5(-105) *1.25/1.19

Ohio State -6(-110) *1.10/1.00

Ohio State ML(-225) *7.50/3.33


Good Luck Folks






SOrry to burst the bubble  here   but  your research is wrong,   WORTHLESS NUTS   will lose this game


 
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Posted: #29
21/3 laying -250 vs. Undefeated team and Heisman Trophy Winner

 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by ToddC:

Yesterday with over 20,000 bets on the game..... 97% ML penn state lol

Ohio state ML looks A+

    If you bet  money  on the OHIO  NUTS to win this     you just lost your  money

 
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Posted: #31
They could blow this game wide open now.
 
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Posted: #32
Once again ... this proves that all this research and long write-ups mean absolutely nothing. Wake up Sheep!
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by dpman39:

Once again ... this proves that all this research and long write-ups mean absolutely nothing. Wake up Sheep!

I don't understand the "sheep" part?
 
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Posted: #34
followers?
 
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Posted: #35
Yes. Sheep will come to covers forums and find a lengthy write-up and consider it to be "winning information". That is why scalabrine (another covers poster) still gets his followers despite his mediocrity. You can write a novel about a game but if the result isn't what you churned -- trying to convince people, you will get burned at the stake for it. Take the good with the bad.

The research is about 90% correct. The result, not so much right now. Lots of game left

But there is always another game.

BOL!
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by choppedwood:

Good Stuff!!!


Awesome Big 10 Insight!!!(THX for the write up SAC)


That drink will be tasting good in the third quarter!!!

Safe on the money line!!!



















You  woulda been better off   to put your money  on Penn State,   They will be the National Champion  This year
 
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Posted: #37
Penn State,   Your  National Champs  for  2017-2018
 
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Posted: #38
28-20 let's go Ohio state backers!
 
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Posted: #39
I’m on PSU but you gotta love these fopdoodles coming in here an hour after the game has started and making BOLD PRONOUNCEMENTS like some kind of new age Nostradamus.

Yeesh 
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by HappyKane:

Yes. Sheep will come to covers forums and find a lengthy write-up and consider it to be "winning information". That is why scalabrine (another covers poster) still gets his followers despite his mediocrity. You can write a novel about a game but if the result isn't what you churned -- trying to convince people, you will get burned at the stake for it. Take the good with the bad.

The research is about 90% correct. The result, not so much right now. Lots of game left

But there is always another game.

BOL!

I like to read lengthy write-ups for good or bad, it's better then the decades old cover betters that post their picks, takes all the dogs, seems like picks every games played and does zero research.
 
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Posted: #41
Penn state moneyline!!!
 
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Posted: #42
this replay review should be interesting  penn state WR has that ball and ohio state player ripped away while they on the ground  should be penn state touchdown
 
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Posted: #43
yes!!! TD Penn state
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by Guy_2U:


I like to read lengthy write-ups for good or bad, it's better then the decades old cover betters that post their picks, takes all the dogs, seems like picks every games played and does zero research.
likewise. i get what kaner is saying by people seeing just a big long excerpt of angles and blindly taking the pic because it sounds good. i even fell for that crap long ago when i was a lurker on covers. however, for the open mnded that know better than to blindly tail picks, these write ups are useful. it saves me a ton of work of researching when looking over the credible poster's write ups. i may not take their pick, but i will read through it to help determine my decision or even if i should play it now. keep doing your thang, sac.
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
 
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Posted: #45
Win or lose I'll still share thoughts and info.

Congrats to the penn st backers so far.

At least I don't go into other people's threads when they lose a play after the fact. I've never seen anyone win $ playing monday morning quarterback.

Good Luck the rest of the way
 
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Posted: #46
OSU fans can't wait for JT to leave lol
 
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Posted: #47
GREAT CALL, OSU 
 
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Posted: #48
wow , this is why we love football
 
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Posted: #49
I will give you your props...Nice call bud.

PM for the skinny on the down low
 
 
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Posted: #50
So OSU has locked in one spot for the final four if they win out. WOW
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