ozz's play(s) for 12-30-10

ytd (ncaaf): 12-14

Went 2-0 yesterday with the OVER In the Ecu game & Okla St -5

I'm rolling with an underdog to start the day off.

Army +7.5

Why?

Army averages 27 PPG / allows 25 PPG

SMU averages 26 PPG / allows 26 PPG

Army's passing D gives up 190 yds/pg and ranks 24th out of 120.

SMU is primarily a passing team racking up 273 / ypg (21st) so that plays into Army's strength on Defense.

SMU has struggled with an option team this year falling to NAVY 28-21... Army fits into a very similar offensive scheme.

I believe this will be a fairly low scoring game decided by a TD or less so I will take the TD + the hook.

SMU was able to muster up a whopping 14 points vs. a very suspect UTEP defense so I think Army can keep this one competitive.

Risking 2 units

to win 2 units

BOL

ozz

Iam on it as well...dont think smu rushing defense will stop armys rushing attack

bol ozz

thanks D-Town, you too buddy.

I'll post any other plays today in this thread.

Good luck bro.

Besides Tulsa, C-Usa has not faired well SU or ATS in these bowl games.  I'm hoping that the statistics hold up on this one because that's solely what my play is based on.

Under looks good too.

revised play :

Bookie raised the spread to +8

so Army +8

for 3 Units

Good luck R.Stove,

A lot of people are on SMU and I can see why.

But purely from a statistics based stand-point, my play is Army and the points.

BOL bro.

The final score in the Navy game is a bit mis-leading due to the fact that Army fumbled on the Navy 1 which was returned for a 99 YD TD.

Had Army gotten that TD they very easily could've pulled out a "W" or at the very worst a cover of the +8 they were getting in that game.

I've got my second play locked in.

Will post shortly.

Second play :

Kansas St v. Syracuse

OVER 48

K-State avgs 33 ppg / allows 28 ppg

SYR avgs 21 ppg / allows 18 ppg

K-State are ranked 106 of 120 in TOTAL yards allowed and have the unique 'ability' to make any offense look explosive.

K-State can put up points based off of their 33 ppg avg and they rank 20th in rushing offense whereas Syracuses' weak spot on Defense is against the rush allowing 137+ per game on the ground ranked 42.

Risking 4 Units

to win 4 Units

BOL

ozz 

Plays so far :

Army +8 for 3U

OVER 48 in K-State / SYR for 4U

I'm going to post some stats on the TENN / NC & NEB / WAS game for a point of reference for everyone (myself included).

Here Goes:

NORTH CAROLINA v. TENNESSEE game played in TENNESSEE

OFFENSE (NC) :

North Carolina (7-5) avg's 25 ppg / allows 23 ppg

RUSHING OFFENSE : 123 ypg / ranked 95

PASSING OFFENSE : 266 ypg / ranked 25

DEFENSE (NC) :

TOTAL Yards allowed 338 (32)

RUSHING DEFENSE : 133 ypg / ranked 36th

PASSING DEFENSE : 207 ypg / ranked 39th

TENNESSEE (6-6) avg's 27 ppg / allows 24 ppg

RUSHING OFFENSE : 116 / ypg ranked 100th

PASSING OFFENSE : 250 ypg / 36th

Defensively, Tenn. gives up 380 YPG / ranked 70th

RUSHING DEFENSE : 152 ypg / ranked 63rd

PASSING DEFENSE : 229 ypg / ranked 82

Tennessee comes into this one with homefield advantage & on a 5 game ATS cover streak.

More to come.

Got Army and on Tenn as well.

Good Luck OZZ and to all.

Tenn isn't a pick of mine, I"m just posting the statistics for that game for everyone & I may or may not bet it.

What worries me is that NC is 25th in passing offense to TENN's 82nd ranked passing DEFENSE.

Tennessee comes into the game on a nice ATS covering streak but the ACC has been dominant in bowl games thus far.

YTD : 13-14

on a 3-0 RUN (5-0 if you include my two picks prior I posted in the game discussions for IOWA & NC STATE & in other peoples' threads).

OVER 48 in KSTATE / SYR pending.

I'm looking into the TENN / NC game currently and at some NBA.

Congrats all ARMY backers