Penn state +4.5 a trap?

Good luck to all! 

Been betting on CFB (and a little NFL) but nothing else the rest of the year for about 18 years now.  I don't bet a lot - $20-$30 straight bet range, a few teasers and very little parlays.  I'm also a Buckeye and have made a lot of successful bets on the Bucks because I know them so well.  I take the points against them quite a bit.

Generally, I stay away from marquee matchups especially with perennials like this because the game can go so many ways.  This won't be any different.  I have watched every PSU and OSU game this year.  Tough to watch the Bucks struggle early on offense but to be expected a bit considering a brand new starter.  What is most frustrating, however, is the Bucks stubborn persistence on running the ball.  Last week was a turning point though, IMO.  Purdue has historically been a tough team for us particularly away from Columbus but last week was a level of offensive creativity we have not seen this year.

PSU has looked good at times, and pretty bland as well.  What I know for sure is they are not an explosive team that can score quickly.  The DEF looks really good so far, the competition not so much.  I don't put much stock in the "they haven't played anyone yet" BS.  Georgia hasn't either and has still struggled against everyone P5 team not named Kentucky.  Still "the best team" (they aren't).

Again, find better bets - there are plenty this week.  

I think if you want to bet this game, do so live. 

Here's what I'll be looking for:  the line is very low for a Bucks game and they are treating it like a must-win game.  What they will try to do is score fast and force PSU to either double Marvin, leaving one-on-ones for Stover and the other WR's as well as taking another defender out away from the line for runs and short routes, which we can certainly win. Or lose in one-on-one coverage of Marvin like everyone else has.  If that works, will will change strategies and drain the clock.  I will be hoping for an early Bucks score that causes the line to jump up to anything North of 50 so I can take the under.

Should be a close game but the Bucks are the better team, make no mistake.  The Bucks should cover and I think they will.  I'll be checking the live lines as well - got OSU -7 vs. MD 2 weeks ago.

FYI I went 7-0 in the NFL including picking both the Jets and Browns to win SU live while both were trailing (https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/79cthqk2o9rt590j1gwhe/2023-10-15-20.02.00.jpg?rlkey=r4ojd9mo0uszmypfnah7yn0u5&dl=0) and 7-2 last week in CFB straight bets including my first player prop of the year - Marvin Harrison Jr O 96.5 rec yds.

BOL!

@MattStefanik

 
I mainly look for marquee matchups like this in college. I feel like the lines are more sharp. I hate betting on shitty college team matchups. 

i just did astros 1st 5innings +.5 parlay with Ohio state buckeye ML. $1290 to cash $3252. 

I don't understand how people don't project this to be a fairly low scoring game that is decided by turnover margin and big plays. I see a lot of 21-17, 24-21, 28-24 type games. I feel like the line is right.

@UrdaddyinAZ

 The topic is not about the over/under sir. But based on your predictions of the score- I assume ur on penn state too 

@UrdaddyinAZ

 Nvm I think I interpreted ur post wrong- a lil tipsy right now. Carry on 

@SlayTheBooks

 PSU 3-0 ats last 3.  QB has zero TOs  lead nation in sacks.  

@MattStefanik

 Good call Matt!