Penn State @ Bama

I know this game has been blogged, texted, twittered and otherwise massaged to death, but I've been saying for about a month now that if the line on this game came in under 2 TDs that it would be a "max bet" game for me.  Accordingly, I'll throw in my opinion of why it is.

Penn State has a lot of similarities to Bama.  They are a tough, smash-mouth football team that is fundamentally sound, and they don't beat themselves.  They are also experienced in that they will be starting 17 seniors.  In short, they will make Alabama earn everything they get.

The type of teams that have given Bama's defense trouble in the past are teams with a good QB, and a prolific passing attack.  Penn State is not that team, and starting a QB Robert Bolden, who is 4 months removed for his high school prom, is not that QB.  Teams like Penn State that want to line up and play big boy football essentially play right into the strength of this Bama team.

My question is how will Penn State score points in this game?  Running the ball with Evan Royster against probably the best run defense in the nation - a defense that hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher since Noah was building his ark?  Or will Royster have success airing it out with 101,000 fanatical Bama fans screaming at the top of their lungs against a confusing Bama defense with a young, inexperienced but very athletic secondary?  Or will they take advantage of turnovers and miscues of probably the most disciplined team in college football who rarely makes a mistake?  If none of these scenariors seem very likely, then you are starting to see why I like this game so much.

On the other side of the ball, Bama fields one of the best and most experienced offenses in college football.  Right now I don't really see any team in the country holding Bama under 30 points unless they really dominate the time of possession, which I think is Penn State's only chance to keep this game close.  I have no doubt that they will try to shorten the game, but I don't see them being very effective at doing so.

Inside the locker room the players are talking about using this game to establish an identity for this 2010 team, and to make a huge statement in front of a national audience.

When the final seconds ticking off the 4th quarter clock, I think we'll see a score of something like 31-10 in favor of Bama.

 to all!!!

Quote Originally Posted by 1bajalife:

Well said Jimmy. It just seems wierd that the line is so low. I feel like a fish staring at a baited hook. Almost seems to easy thats what scares me. 

People that have been following me on Covers for a while know I've only misfired on one Bama game in like the last 3 or 4 years (last year's Auburn game) which makes my record something like 263412634768 & 1.

I always get these questions about lines looking fishy, or about this line movement or that line movement.  Obviously I have no control over the lines so I really can't answer those kind of questions intelligently.  All I can do is be confident in my ability to guage the mood of the team, factor what I know about the game plan versus what I know about the capabilities of the opposing team.  The formula has made me a lot of money thus far, and with the max bet I have on this game, I hope the trend will continue.

I will add one more thing.  Bama is an easy team to bet on because they are a very consistent product from week-to-week.  They don't win by 6 touchdows one week, then lose by three the next.  These are exactly the kind of teams you want to bet on.  I sure wouldn't be betting 10 units on Florida Atlantic no matter how much I liked them in a given game.

 out!!!

It's nothing more than respect for the "Penn State" name.  Otherwise, Bama would be giving way more points.  This won't even be one of PSUs good teams compared to what they've had the last few years.  And we all know that Alabama is on top of the world right now.  They have a heck of an experienced offense, and Saban is such a master of defense that you won't even know they're replacing 9 guys on D.  Penn State will be a nice team this year, but they won't hang in this one.   

Quote Originally Posted by 1bajalife:

Are you a lawyer? Because you just persuaded me!

GL buddy. Roll TIde!!

Side Note:( My Grandmother dated Bear Bryant, true story!!! Classic huh!)

LOL!!!  Been accused of being an attorney many times!!!

Dude, how awesome is that???  Just imagine if she would have married the Bear???  You would probably have some cushy job in the athletic department somewhere!!!  Tell your Grandma that Jimmydafreak said "Roll Damn Tide!!!"

You could be right about the Penn State respect factor.

Actually it's 10 defensive players because one of last year's starters, Nico Johnson, wasn't able to crack the starting lineup this year.  Of those 10,  however, all but 2 have played significant snaps.  As you said, in terms of on-the-field performance, I doubt this year's defense will be distinguishable from last.

Haha!!!  Yeah, the Bear was known to hit the bottle from time-to-time.  I met him one time when I was 10 years old.  My dad took a picture of us, but I have no idea what happened to it.  I'd love to find it someday.

My dad was engaged to Bear's daughter,Mary,until he met my mom.My dad played ball for Coach Bryant at A&M and yes was a survivor of the "Junction" camp with Coach Stallings. My dad was fron Lafayette,La and my mom from New Orleans. My mom was a Rosato and her father i.e my grandfather, was, at the time of her youth( late1930's,40's and 50's ) one of the biggest books in the SE US. Anyway Caoch Bryant and my Dad remained close eveb after he jilted his daughter,and Coach bryant would every year during the late 60's and thru out the 7o's join my family at the Fairgrounds racetrack in NO every New Year's day. If one remembers bak then the Sugar Bowl was always played on New Yeras Eve,thus Coach Bryant whtehr he was winning a Nat'l title or not or losing to ND in the Sugar Bowl would be at our table at the track. He was quite an awnery man from the eyes of an 6,7,8,9-13 yr old,but by the 8th race he would be so smashed on JD that it did not matter. In the mid 70's we actually moved to ALA onto a golf course and Coach Bryant would come to our house to play golf before that area of AL's booster club(The Red Elephant Club) would have Coach Bryant as thier guest. One yer he got so smashed on the course he got lost and was an hour late for the gig. My dad ,brother andI had to fan out on golf carts to go help him fid his way back,as it was(still is) a sprwaling wooded,swampy 36 hole course,that could actully gotten a sober person somewhat disoriented).

 My dad was an usher at his funeral.

Roll Tide and Gig 'em,Aggies!!!

BOL Brother

already on Bama small .... May have to Bump them up

Dude, that is such an awesome story!!!  If it were me, I'd write a book about that shit right there!!!  Great stuff!!!  Thanks for sharing.

Haha!!!  Might have to bump them to a cell phone play huh???    I think we are some of the same games.   to us!!!

Will problabbly be with you on this one Freak, this line is too good to pass up. Still working on the final card and I'm hoping to post it before I go to work Sat. morn.

I didn't see if you were on FSU. Any thoughts? I see Ponder having a field day with that secondary.

EC