Wisconsin -10 : To say I know these team intimately
is an understatement. I have had some
type of wager in all 10 games these two teams have played this year, with mixed
results. Last week I couldn’t express what a lock ohio
state was in a teaser. They were getting
a generous +7.5 in a 13 point teaser last week if the bet was put in
early. My analysis of the game had Ohio
State scoring between 35-40 points and that they were a key teaser. I had the side and the over in a ton of
teasers. The bet was a bit shaky midway
through, however the outcome is what I predicted. Actually I had a very large second half play
on the side and total that came in comfortably.
I don’t dislike Northwestern, I don’t bet against them every
week. However, what alarms me most about
this team is their inability to stop their opponent from moving the ball. Let’s look at how last week’s game played
out.
Ohio state vs NW:
The 500 lb gorilla in the room was their lack of defense coming INTO the
game. After playing the likes of Cal,
Maine, W Michigan and Syracuse they had the 88th worst defense
before the game ever started.Additionally, the point total of their
opposition was 30, 21, 17, 27, respectively.
The point total wasn’t alarming,
the point total coupled with a slim margin of victory was. They
even trailed Western Michigan at home in the 2nd Q and Cal on the
road in the 4th quarter. Back to my observations from the OSU game: OSU
was coming into the game after playing a very physical contest against Wisky
the week before. They lost their speed
back Jordan Hall and had to rely on Hyde who had just 5 carries in the previous
3 weeks. Hyde responded by rushing for 168 on 26
carries and 3 TDs. He was completely
gassed and it was obvious with his facial expression and mannerisms. I estimated the last 12 carries he was not
running at full speed but they needed him to gain those crucial yards. In all, OSU ran the ball 48 times for 248
yards (5.0 YPC). Braxton Miller ran a
ridiculous 17 times for an inefficient 68 yards. I kept yelling for him to drop back and throw
the ball he is elusive, but not fast.
Actually he was a HUGE liability fumbling the ball inside the 20 of the
opponent and inside the 5 yard line trying to gain extra yards. When
he dropped back to pass he found Corey Brown for 127 yards on only 6
receptions. Bringing Brown’s yards receiving
on the year to 133.So
in summary: you had a QB who ran the ball poorly, accounted for 3 turnovers and
two players had career days on offense.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Wisconsin -10 : To say I know these team intimately
is an understatement. I have had some
type of wager in all 10 games these two teams have played this year, with mixed
results. Last week I couldn’t express what a lock ohio
state was in a teaser. They were getting
a generous +7.5 in a 13 point teaser last week if the bet was put in
early. My analysis of the game had Ohio
State scoring between 35-40 points and that they were a key teaser. I had the side and the over in a ton of
teasers. The bet was a bit shaky midway
through, however the outcome is what I predicted. Actually I had a very large second half play
on the side and total that came in comfortably.
I don’t dislike Northwestern, I don’t bet against them every
week. However, what alarms me most about
this team is their inability to stop their opponent from moving the ball. Let’s look at how last week’s game played
out.
Ohio state vs NW:
The 500 lb gorilla in the room was their lack of defense coming INTO the
game. After playing the likes of Cal,
Maine, W Michigan and Syracuse they had the 88th worst defense
before the game ever started.Additionally, the point total of their
opposition was 30, 21, 17, 27, respectively.
The point total wasn’t alarming,
the point total coupled with a slim margin of victory was. They
even trailed Western Michigan at home in the 2nd Q and Cal on the
road in the 4th quarter. Back to my observations from the OSU game: OSU
was coming into the game after playing a very physical contest against Wisky
the week before. They lost their speed
back Jordan Hall and had to rely on Hyde who had just 5 carries in the previous
3 weeks. Hyde responded by rushing for 168 on 26
carries and 3 TDs. He was completely
gassed and it was obvious with his facial expression and mannerisms. I estimated the last 12 carries he was not
running at full speed but they needed him to gain those crucial yards. In all, OSU ran the ball 48 times for 248
yards (5.0 YPC). Braxton Miller ran a
ridiculous 17 times for an inefficient 68 yards. I kept yelling for him to drop back and throw
the ball he is elusive, but not fast.
Actually he was a HUGE liability fumbling the ball inside the 20 of the
opponent and inside the 5 yard line trying to gain extra yards. When
he dropped back to pass he found Corey Brown for 127 yards on only 6
receptions. Bringing Brown’s yards receiving
on the year to 133.So
in summary: you had a QB who ran the ball poorly, accounted for 3 turnovers and
two players had career days on offense.
1)It is all about the running backs. While Hyde was able to lumber forward and break tackles NW has the misfortune of playing a smaller back that is more elusive (actually taller, 30 lbs lighter) faster and has breakaway speed that can get to the edge. This is a huge problem for the Wildcats. He has 700 yards coming into the contest with a 10 YPC average and 7 TDs. The punishing running game duo of White and Goron is going to be very overwhelming. The duo had over 300 yards just two weeks ago against Purdue which has a similar rated defense as Nwestern (adjusted based on competition). Ohio State had problems sustaining drives in the second half because they didn’t have fresh legs to break tackles. White is a tier lower than Gordon but carries a 6.9 YPC and 500 yards on the season. They will be rotating from the first drive and will completely wear down the defense.
2)It is all about the receivers. The adage is that the more effective the running game the more it will open the passing game. Nwestern never got the memo. They get torched on pass defense. For example, the first game of the season featured a true freshman at QB for California. The Cal rbs accounted for only 93 yards on 35 carries. Not a problem against NW’s pass defense. The 18 year old QB in his first college game passed for 450 yards and led NW by 14 points in the second half of the game. Not to be outdone, Maine and Syracuse also passed for 300 yards with ineffective running games. With this resume NW is in big trouble on Saturday. Wisconsin boasts one of the best WRs in the conference. If you don’t know the name Jared Abbrederis then you probably didn’t see him torch Ohio State for 200+ yards on 10 catches and a TD. What was even more impressive is that he was opposite an all-american corner back for OSU (a redshirt freshman is covering him this week!) The former walk-on is a smooth operator who runs precision routes and gets behind the defense constantly. He is a taller and more polished than the aforementioned OSU’s Brown who had a career day last week.
3)It is all about the QBs. Wisconsin features a serviceable QB who is able to be successful due to the running game. The 6’ 5” Stave throws a moderately accurate deep ball and never tries to do too much. He has only 8 TDs on the year but a very respectable 145 QB rating. He had only 150 yards passing against Purdue where his team put up 40+ pts on the scoreboard. He will go over the top of the defense several times to his favorite Abbrederis on deep routes. He will probably complete half of those passes and for at least one TD. I realize that N western features a two-headed QB but we saw how well they did against the buckeyes. NW will be throwing the ball early and often and go with the hot hand. This will lead to a lack of consistency and mistakes being made…just like in the OSU game.
4)Space…the final frontier. One of the biggest observation I came away with against OSU was the amount of space the defense was giving OSU. Whether it was a screen to the back or down the middle the safeties and corners for NW were so soft and gave the offensive player too much space to make a play. This is not an anomaly, this is their modus operandi. One thing to note is that NW lines up their Dbacks by sides not by matchups, expect Abbrederis to move all over the field opening up mismatches for the TE and other WRs. This is going to be a nightmare for NW. They will stack the box early and often to stop the box without any real DT to make an impact. Gordon isn’t a real screen back but if they get him in space with a stacked box on the edge he has the propensity to make one man miss and take it to the house.
Conclusion: I see the game 41-17, possibility 41-24. I see a 24 point lead in the fourth and NW closing the scoring with a TD to close the gap to 17, even a much unexpected fluke play would result in a push. NW left it all on the field last weekend and still can’t believe they controlled their own destiny with the lead late in the game and it slipped through their fingers. Wisky is coming off a bye and their ONLY home game this month. Nice weather, healthy team looking to curb the sting of losing to OSU.
good luck on all your plays this weekend.
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Fast forward to Saturday’s contest:
1)It is all about the running backs. While Hyde was able to lumber forward and break tackles NW has the misfortune of playing a smaller back that is more elusive (actually taller, 30 lbs lighter) faster and has breakaway speed that can get to the edge. This is a huge problem for the Wildcats. He has 700 yards coming into the contest with a 10 YPC average and 7 TDs. The punishing running game duo of White and Goron is going to be very overwhelming. The duo had over 300 yards just two weeks ago against Purdue which has a similar rated defense as Nwestern (adjusted based on competition). Ohio State had problems sustaining drives in the second half because they didn’t have fresh legs to break tackles. White is a tier lower than Gordon but carries a 6.9 YPC and 500 yards on the season. They will be rotating from the first drive and will completely wear down the defense.
2)It is all about the receivers. The adage is that the more effective the running game the more it will open the passing game. Nwestern never got the memo. They get torched on pass defense. For example, the first game of the season featured a true freshman at QB for California. The Cal rbs accounted for only 93 yards on 35 carries. Not a problem against NW’s pass defense. The 18 year old QB in his first college game passed for 450 yards and led NW by 14 points in the second half of the game. Not to be outdone, Maine and Syracuse also passed for 300 yards with ineffective running games. With this resume NW is in big trouble on Saturday. Wisconsin boasts one of the best WRs in the conference. If you don’t know the name Jared Abbrederis then you probably didn’t see him torch Ohio State for 200+ yards on 10 catches and a TD. What was even more impressive is that he was opposite an all-american corner back for OSU (a redshirt freshman is covering him this week!) The former walk-on is a smooth operator who runs precision routes and gets behind the defense constantly. He is a taller and more polished than the aforementioned OSU’s Brown who had a career day last week.
3)It is all about the QBs. Wisconsin features a serviceable QB who is able to be successful due to the running game. The 6’ 5” Stave throws a moderately accurate deep ball and never tries to do too much. He has only 8 TDs on the year but a very respectable 145 QB rating. He had only 150 yards passing against Purdue where his team put up 40+ pts on the scoreboard. He will go over the top of the defense several times to his favorite Abbrederis on deep routes. He will probably complete half of those passes and for at least one TD. I realize that N western features a two-headed QB but we saw how well they did against the buckeyes. NW will be throwing the ball early and often and go with the hot hand. This will lead to a lack of consistency and mistakes being made…just like in the OSU game.
4)Space…the final frontier. One of the biggest observation I came away with against OSU was the amount of space the defense was giving OSU. Whether it was a screen to the back or down the middle the safeties and corners for NW were so soft and gave the offensive player too much space to make a play. This is not an anomaly, this is their modus operandi. One thing to note is that NW lines up their Dbacks by sides not by matchups, expect Abbrederis to move all over the field opening up mismatches for the TE and other WRs. This is going to be a nightmare for NW. They will stack the box early and often to stop the box without any real DT to make an impact. Gordon isn’t a real screen back but if they get him in space with a stacked box on the edge he has the propensity to make one man miss and take it to the house.
Conclusion: I see the game 41-17, possibility 41-24. I see a 24 point lead in the fourth and NW closing the scoring with a TD to close the gap to 17, even a much unexpected fluke play would result in a push. NW left it all on the field last weekend and still can’t believe they controlled their own destiny with the lead late in the game and it slipped through their fingers. Wisky is coming off a bye and their ONLY home game this month. Nice weather, healthy team looking to curb the sting of losing to OSU.
For sure, -110 at 10.5, and -10 for each half point. Generally not a big fan of buying points though, unless I'm needing to move around 3, and then the juice is worse.
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For sure, -110 at 10.5, and -10 for each half point. Generally not a big fan of buying points though, unless I'm needing to move around 3, and then the juice is worse.
For sure, -110 at 10.5, and -10 for each half point. Generally not a big fan of buying points though, unless I'm needing to move around 3, and then the juice is worse.
You shouldn't need to buy points, but it can't hurt with the backdoor possibility.
I watched the purdue / Wisky game and they really sat on the ball 2nd half up big.
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Quote Originally Posted by HotPancakes:
For sure, -110 at 10.5, and -10 for each half point. Generally not a big fan of buying points though, unless I'm needing to move around 3, and then the juice is worse.
You shouldn't need to buy points, but it can't hurt with the backdoor possibility.
I watched the purdue / Wisky game and they really sat on the ball 2nd half up big.
That is a good breakdown Pix. The comment on how much "space" the NW defense was giving OSU just about covers it.
The second half bet of OSU was juicy...I watched it open at -4 and run to -5.5 in minutes......one of the few halftime wagers that I felt was very solid.
The only way that this game doesn't finish at least in the 14 pt range is if the refs keep it close and kill a few Wisky drives, or NW gets some breaks and goes up 3 scores early.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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That is a good breakdown Pix. The comment on how much "space" the NW defense was giving OSU just about covers it.
The second half bet of OSU was juicy...I watched it open at -4 and run to -5.5 in minutes......one of the few halftime wagers that I felt was very solid.
The only way that this game doesn't finish at least in the 14 pt range is if the refs keep it close and kill a few Wisky drives, or NW gets some breaks and goes up 3 scores early.
not sure if you mentioned it, but the psyche of NW has to be way down. They were so up for that game. It was the game of the year for them. Crushing loss in which the game was close at the end. Now they have to go on the road.
Any thoughts on what Wisky's team total will be?
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not sure if you mentioned it, but the psyche of NW has to be way down. They were so up for that game. It was the game of the year for them. Crushing loss in which the game was close at the end. Now they have to go on the road.
not sure if you mentioned it, but the psyche of NW has to be way down. They were so up for that game. It was the game of the year for them. Crushing loss in which the game was close at the end. Now they have to go on the road.
Any thoughts on what Wisky's team total will be?
Yes.....total for the game now is 57
the spread is 10.
38.5-28.5 is vegas' team totals if the total doesn't move.
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Quote Originally Posted by DanTos8715:
not sure if you mentioned it, but the psyche of NW has to be way down. They were so up for that game. It was the game of the year for them. Crushing loss in which the game was close at the end. Now they have to go on the road.
Any thoughts on what Wisky's team total will be?
Yes.....total for the game now is 57
the spread is 10.
38.5-28.5 is vegas' team totals if the total doesn't move.
I can see Wisky score 37 or 38 points.....They don't have a prolific passing game and only pass when necessary.....they will sit on the ball 2nd half.
I did mention the psyche:
NW left it all on the field last weekend and still can’t believe they controlled their own destiny with the lead late in the game and it slipped through their fingers.
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I can see Wisky score 37 or 38 points.....They don't have a prolific passing game and only pass when necessary.....they will sit on the ball 2nd half.
I did mention the psyche:
NW left it all on the field last weekend and still can’t believe they controlled their own destiny with the lead late in the game and it slipped through their fingers.
Im on Northwestern +10 1/2. If anything Pat Fitzgerald has this team disciplined enough not to give up on the season just off one loss. Also a senior Q.B at the helm Cain Colter will help a lot. The Q.B controls the huddle and I see a ole fashioned Big Ten shootout. Defense is kinda lax, but offense will help out.
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Im on Northwestern +10 1/2. If anything Pat Fitzgerald has this team disciplined enough not to give up on the season just off one loss. Also a senior Q.B at the helm Cain Colter will help a lot. The Q.B controls the huddle and I see a ole fashioned Big Ten shootout. Defense is kinda lax, but offense will help out.
38.5-28.5 is vegas' team totals if the total doesn't move.
You're too high there. Your total would equal 67 points. Team totals should be around 34 and 24. Nice write-up though, Wisky should be able to bully them after that heart-breaking loss.
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Quote Originally Posted by Pix:
Yes.....total for the game now is 57
the spread is 10.
38.5-28.5 is vegas' team totals if the total doesn't move.
You're too high there. Your total would equal 67 points. Team totals should be around 34 and 24. Nice write-up though, Wisky should be able to bully them after that heart-breaking loss.
You're too high there. Your total would equal 67 points. Team totals should be around 34 and 24. Nice write-up though, Wisky should be able to bully them after that heart-breaking loss.
you are certainly correct.
33.5 to 23.5
lol, I was wondering why with the same total as OSU the number was so much higher.
I had over 16.5 2nd half OSU and ov 33.5 team total game last week.
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Quote Originally Posted by bense197969:
You're too high there. Your total would equal 67 points. Team totals should be around 34 and 24. Nice write-up though, Wisky should be able to bully them after that heart-breaking loss.
you are certainly correct.
33.5 to 23.5
lol, I was wondering why with the same total as OSU the number was so much higher.
I had over 16.5 2nd half OSU and ov 33.5 team total game last week.
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