Posted:
#26
Quote Originally Posted by lordzud:
You are a good capper double up. I'll be betting against a few frosh QB's (example, I'm on Penn ST +1 versus a deeper Cent Florida team because CFU is starting a freshman QB) but I'd be shying away from that ULM bet for the reasons jmw has stated directly above. To win you have to stay ahead of the curve. It is apparent that both in college and the NFL that the QB position has become more and more important. I don't believe these power ratings and the complex algorithms that the math nerds employed by the books use to create these lines can possibly incorporate this into their spreads. The percentages tell me that for every Jamies Winston or johnny Manziel that are successful right away there are a hundred deer in the headlights that either flop or go through a long learning curve. Week one I try to bet against those teams that are starting a new QB or a bunch of rookie O-linemen.
buddy
You are a good capper double up. I'll be betting against a few frosh QB's (example, I'm on Penn ST +1 versus a deeper Cent Florida team because CFU is starting a freshman QB) but I'd be shying away from that ULM bet for the reasons jmw has stated directly above. To win you have to stay ahead of the curve. It is apparent that both in college and the NFL that the QB position has become more and more important. I don't believe these power ratings and the complex algorithms that the math nerds employed by the books use to create these lines can possibly incorporate this into their spreads. The percentages tell me that for every Jamies Winston or johnny Manziel that are successful right away there are a hundred deer in the headlights that either flop or go through a long learning curve. Week one I try to bet against those teams that are starting a new QB or a bunch of rookie O-linemen.
buddyBetting against underdog freshman QB's when they open on the road is a good strategy, particularly when you cannot run the ball against a good run defense.
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