Public Indicator Calculations 2023

@HooAlum

Friday Update

Miami (6 units) - line movement, low ticket and handle favorite, reverse movement outweighs sharp action and over/under squeeze

Nebraska (7 units)- SKS low ticket favorite and sharp action

PICK CHANGE: TCU (1 unit)  -Line movement and heavy sharp action outweighs low ticket and handle on Favorite

Texas (1 unit) - low ticket and handle on Favorite outweighs sharp action and over/under squeeze

PICK CHANGE: Michigan St-Penn St (No Bet) - line movement and sharp action balanced by lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze 

Oregon (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

@HooAlum

Saturday Games

Friday was a solid day though Nebraska absolutely blew (anyone who has seen the buskers over the last few years is not surprised) it which would have made it a VERY good day.  Up for the week right now.  Texas did get the surge of a couple of points that signaled line movement with low ticket so the unit die go up to 3 from 1.  That was sadly the only change as the sharp action analysis has been awful but did not improve.

For Saturday I still love Michigan personally but the lopsided wagering went away so the unit amounts have shrunk.  Beyond that I have rarely see so many outright picks change in 24 hours.

@HooAlum

Afternoon update (likely last one of the day).  A couple of interesting games including Colorado kicking off shortly.  Get Colorado at the higher MGM number.  It is an outlier and the sharp are all over it.

NEW GAME: Colorado (3 units) - solid sharp action a=nd over/under squeeze

@HooAlum

 Very strong week as for the first time in almost the entire season the week finished as strong as it started.

WEEKLY RECORD: 12-6

SEASON RECORD: 110-90 (55%)

WEEKLY REVENUE: 74.1 units on 54 wagered

SEASON REVENUE: 677.3 units on 592 wagered (14.41% profit)

Here are the early signs for the games for championship weekend.  

Liberty (1 unit) - Low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Oregon (9 units) - SKS, low ticket favorite and sharp action

Oklahoma St-Texas (No Bet) - No indicators

Toledo (3 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Boise St (4 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp action

SMU (1 unit) - sharp action

Alabama-Georgia (No Bet) - No indicators

Troy (3 units) - sharp action

Louisville (1 unit) - sharp action outweighs low handle favorite

Iowa (1 unit) - over/under. squeeze outweighs sharp action

*********************

Indicator Season Performance

Steam: 76.19%

West Coats Road team early start: 75%

Low Bet + Low Handle Favorite: 66.1%

Low Bet Favorite: 61.36%

Low Handle Favorite: 58.76%

SKS: 58.54%

Line Movement: 56.18%

Reverse Movement: 55.56%

Bye Week Return: 54.17%

Lopsided Wagering: 52.38%

Sharp Action: 51.06%

Over/Under Squeeze: 44.07%

Style Points: 37.5%

@HooAlum

Here is the update for games this weekend.  Could update tonight's games again tonight.

Liberty (1 unit) - Low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Oregon (8 units) - SKS, low ticket favorite and sharp action

Texas (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

Toledo (4 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Boise St (2 units) - sharp action

PICK CHANGE: Tulane (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Alabama-Georgia (No Bet) - No indicators

Troy (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movements and sharp action

PICK CHANGE: Florida St (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Iowa (2 units) - heavy over/under squeeze 

@HooAlum

Little moves for tonight.  Nothing major

Liberty (2 units) - Low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Oregon (7 units) - SKS, low ticket favorite and sharp action

@HooAlum

 Your high unit picks suck butt, man. Something in your metric needs to change.

@HooAlum

Took a big hot on what still looks lie the biggest play (at least the lesser play came home) so rough start on what might not be the best week.  Here are the 8 games today and hopefully can get on a run to get a winning week.

Texas (1 unit) - sharp action

Toledo (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Boise St (3 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp action

PICK CHANGE: SMU (1 unit) - sharp action

Alabama-Georgia (No Bet) - No indicators

Troy (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movements and sharp action

Florida St (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement and sharp action

Iowa (2 units) - heavy over/under squeeze 

@HooAlum

 No changes for tonight's games.  Good afternoon but the Oregon game still has the week in a hole presently.  Need a sweep tonight to completely dig out.  As a note App St sharp action did go away so it did bump up a unit but that was the only change during the day.

@HooAlum

 The regular season comes to a close with Army-Navy this week.  Right now it is Navy by 1 unit as sharp action outweighs low handle favorite.  We will continue to watch.  Here is a Week 14 and season summary.  Week 14 was an opposite of much of the season where a mediocre weekly record would be a big winner because the big plays  came home.  This week was the opposite where a great 6-3 record occurred but because of the awful Oregon loss it was a losing week.

WEEKLY RECORD: 6-3

SEASON RECORD: 116-93 (55.5%)

WEEKLY REVENUE: 19 units won on 21 units bet

SEASON REVENUE: 696.3 units won on 613 wagered (13.59% profit)

SEASON INDICATOR PERFORMANCE

Steam: 76.19%

Early start for West Coast team: 75%

Low Bet Favorite + Low Handle Favorite: 66.67%

Low Bet Favorite: 61.96%

Low Handle Favorite: 59.41%

SKS: 55.56%

Reverse Movement: 55.56%

Line Movement: 54.95%

Bye Week Return: 54.17%

Lopsided Wagering: 52.38%

Sharp Action: 51.21%

Style Points: 44.44%

Over/Under Squeeze: 42.62%

@HooAlum

Here are the first Bowl picks.  Definitely will be updated as each game gets closer:

Georgia Southern (1 unit) - sharp action

Howard (1 unit) - sharp action

Louisiana-Lafayette (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Miami(Ohio)-Appalachian State (No Bet) - low handle favorite balanced by sharp action

Fresno St-New Mexico State (No Bet) - lopsided wagering balanced by sharp action

UCLA (5 units) - line movement, low ticket and handle favorite and sharp action outweighs non P5 vs  p5

Texas Tech (1 units) - low ticket favorite

Western Kentucky-Old Dominion (No Bet) - lopsided wagering balanced by sharp action

Marshall-UTSA (No bet) - lopsided wagering balanced by sharp action

South Florida (1 unit) - sharp action and non P5 vs P5 outweighs low handle favorite

Georgia Tech-Central Florida (No Bet) - low handle balanced by sharp action

Troy (3 units) - low handle fav route plus mild SKS, non P5 vs P5

Arkansas St (1 unit) - sharp action

James Madison (2 units) - low ticket and handle outweighs sharp action

Georgia State-Utah State (No bet) - Lopsided wagering balanced ed by sharp action

Eastern Michigan (3 units)  - lopsided wagering, heavy bowl underdog and over/under squeeze outweighs  sharp action

Utah (2 units) - lopsided wagering and loewticket favorite outweighs sharp action

San Jose St (1 unit) - sharp action

Bowling Green (2 units) - sharp action & Non P5 vs P5

Rice-Texas State (No Bet) - low handle fav rot balanced by sharp action

UNLV-Kansas ( NO Bet) - low ticket favorite and sharp action balanced by heavy underdog and non P5 vs P5

Tulane-Virginia Tech (No Bet) - sharp action balanced by lopsided wagering and non-P5 vs P5

North Carolina-West Virginia (No Bet) - lopsided wagering balance by sharp action

Louisville (1 unit) - sharp action

Texas A&M (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, SKS

Boston College (8 units) - lopsided wagering, western team team early start, over/under squeeze, heavy underdog

Miami (4 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Kansas State (6 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite and SKS outweighs sharp action

Arizona (2 units) - SKS and sharp action outweigh lopsided wagering

Clemson (4 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Notre Dame (2 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp action

Memphis (1 unit) - lopsided wagering and non P5 vs P5 outweighs sharp action

Missouri (3 units) - SKS, sharp action, bowl snub

Ole Miss-Penn St (No Bet) - NO Indicators

Maryland-Auburn (N oBet) - lopsided wagering balanced by sharp action

Florida St-Georgia (NO BET) - SKS and bowl snub balanced by over/under squeeze and heavy underdog

Toledo-Wyoming (No Bet) - lopsided wagering balanced by sharp action

Wisconsin (3 units) - lopsided wagering and heavy underdog

Tennessee (2 units) - low handle favorite and SKS outweighs sharp action

Liberty (4 units) - lopsided wagering, heavy sharp action, heavy underdog , non-P5 verses P5 outweighs low handle favroite

Michigan (5 units) -  lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite

Texas (5 units) -  low ticket and handle favorite, SKS

@HooAlum

Latest on tomorrow's games

Georgia Southern (1 unit) - sharp action

Howard-FAMU (No Bet) - line movement balanced by sharp action

Louisiana-Lafayette (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Miami(Ohio)-Appalachian State (No Bet) - low handle favorite balanced by sharp action

Fresno St-New Mexico State (No Bet) - lopsided wagering balanced by sharp action

UCLA (3 units) - line movement, low ticket favorite and sharp action outweighs non P5 vs  p5

Cal-Texas Tech (No Bet) - low ticket favorite balanced by sharp action

enjoyable thread. thank you

@HooAlum

Here is a morning update.  A LOT of tells balanced out the fun action (specifically UCLA) has gone away.  I guess Vegas has confidence in the Broncos backup QB.  Sort of a dud start to the bowl season.  Sorry. 

@HooAlum

 crap my cut and paste did not take from this morning.  Sorry.  Not that it was a big deal but GSU-Ohio went to no bet.   Howard went to 2 units, ULL went to 1 and App St went to 3 on live games.  I apologize just punched send and walked. Except for App St all were mild plays but I hate that it happened just the same.

Here are the evening games.  These are the very dull.  Hopefully my note on UCLA was clear before as this has not changed forom the morning (but indeed from last night and earlier in the week)

Fresno St (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Boise-UCLA (No Bet)- - line movement balanced by non P5 vs  p5

Cal (1 unit) - sharp action

@HooAlum

 BTW (and since Cal is leading it is very transparent).  Texas Tech just dipped below 50% at kickoff in tickets so tell went to them pushing that to no bet as an FYI.  Too bad as I think Cal covers this.

@HooAlum

Update for tomorrow.

Old Dominion (1 unit) - line movement and sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering

@HooAlum

 Slight bump up for ODU as lopsided wagering went away.  Now it is ODU 2 units based on the line movement and sharp action.  Still can grab at 4 in some places.  most are 4.5.

@HooAlum

 A Tuesday update on bowl picks.  Too bad 35-14 could not hold yesterday

Marshall (3 units) - lopsided wagering over/under squeeze and double digit underdog outweighs line movement

Syracuse (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs  non P5 vs P5

Georgia Tech (1 unit) - sharp action

Troy (2 units) - low handle fav route plus mild SKS, non P5 vs P5 outweighs sharp action

Arkansas St (1 unit) - line movement

James Madison (2 units) - low ticket and handle outweighs sharp action

Utah State (5 units) - Line movement, steam and sharp action

Eastern Michigan (2 units)  -heavy bowl underdog and over/under squeeze outweighs sharp action

Utah (4 units) - lopsided wagering and low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Coastal carolina-San Jose St (No Bet) - sharp action balanced by lopsided wagering

Bowling Green (1 unit) - Non P5 vs P5

Texas State (1 unit) -sharp action

UNLV-Kansas (No Bet) - low ticket favorite and sharp action balanced by heavy underdog and non P5 vs P5

Virginia Tech (7 units) - line movement, steam, sharp action and SKS outweighs lopsided wagering and non-P5 vs P5

West Virginia (2 units) - line movement and sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering

Louisville (1 unit) - sharp action

Texas A&M (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, SKS outweighs sharp action

Boston College (8 units) - lopsided wagering, western team team early start, over/under squeeze, heavy underdog outweighs Non P5 versus P5

Miami (4 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Kansas State (5 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite and SKS outweighs sharp action

Arizona (2 units) - SKS and sharp action outweigh lopsided wagering

Clemson (3 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Notre Dame (1 unit) - sharp action

Memphis-Iowa St (No Bet) - lopsided wagering and non P5 vs P5 balanced by line movement and sharp action

Missouri (2 unit) - SKS and bowl snub outweighs lopsided wagering

Penn St (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

Maryland-Auburn (No Bet) - No Indicators

Georgia (1 unit) - SKS and bowl snub outweighs over/under squeeze and heavy underdog

Toledo-Wyoming (No Bet) - lopsided wagering balanced by sharp action

Wisconsin (5 units) - line movement, steam, sharp action

Tennessee (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and SKS outweighs sharp action

Liberty (4 units) - lopsided wagering, sharp action, heavy underdog , non-P5 verses P5 outweighs low handle favroite

Michigan (5 units) -  lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite

Texas (5 units) -  low ticket and handle favorite, SKS

Tonight's game has taken off as the line has collapsed.  Try to still get Marshall at over a touchdown.  It has jumped to a 6 unit play thanks to the steam from this afternoon and the counter line movement from earlier

Still riding with Syracuse ?

@HooAlum

An update for tonight as the % bets swung to the Orange which means the picks swing the other way.  A mere 1 unit on South Florida due to the non P5 vs P5 matchup.  Will watch and see if things change in the next few hours.

@HooAlum

Well, glad we caught the late line movement to USF.  Definitely worthy of a tell win that one to give the Bulls a big win for them (two bad only modest here).  Record in bowl season is a nice 5-2.  Too bad the 6 unit play failed along with the killer Old Dominion (how do you blow a 21 point lead in the 4th quarter! Ugh!).  Thus overall we are just below breakeven by the amount of the vig..

Here are indicators for tonight and tomorrow.  Lot more substantive action than last weekend.

UCF (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Troy (3 units) - low handle favorite, slight SKS and non P5 vs P5

Arkansas St (2 units) - line movement and sharp action

James Madison (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement and sharp action

Georgia St (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

South Alabama (2 units) - line movement, positive reverse movement and sharp actionotuegihs over/under squeeze and double digit bowl underdog

Utah (4 units) -  low ticket and handle favorite with lopsided wagering.  It has been persistent throughout the opening of this line and not gone away much like I thought it would.  It outweighs sharp action

Coastal Carolina-San Jose St (No Bet) - line movement and low handle favorite outweighs over/under squeeze and sharp action

UCF holding strong. The tell in question (low ticket and handle favorite) is 68% accurate so the units go up

AFA jumping the fence was a final straw to go with them and greatly increase the units there. Of course given how Troy and Arkansas st fell short I guess it is buyer beware