First Prognostication post of the CFB year. As a reminder, I just interpret data the best that I can from line movements, handle totals and sharp indicators along with a few other tells to produce projections. Last year's game W-L % was 55.81% with a profit of 13.4% when adding the weights in. Bowl season was where many might remember a solid run as it went a strong 25-10 with every bowl game posted before the start of the game. The bowl season is different so no promises the performance is repeated.
I will continue to try to be transparent in what tells I see and use so you can ignore picks were you think the tells are not as transparent as I make the out to be. I wish I could just stay at my computer all Saturday but life doesn't work that way so there will be a few late moves that I miss but will document them for good or bad. That was why bowl season is so great - doing 1 game at a time allows for a true analysis on each game.
Finally, the demise of the vegasinsider bet %-line movement time stamp chart could be a real hinderance, particularly in identifying reverse movement, as that was how I could sync out line moves with a public betting analysis. There is a chart with sportsinisghts and on "the spread" but it is not nearly as exact and the underlying point spreads are not from the strong collection that VI used for the same info. I will likely be slow to pull the trigger on calling reverse movement this year as a result. The good news the move of Patrick Everson over to VI might be a great change as his Twitter feed is a great source for sharp action and indicators along with a few gems that pop out from others.
With that preamble, here is the first set of what the numbers tell. I'll try to update tomorrow. Surprisingly 4 games have a qualifying handle:
Northwestern (3 units) - modest sharp indicators and an over-under squeeze (low O/U matched with a double digit spread - theory is that only so many points can go around so 1 of the two has to come home and possibly both)
Wyoming-Illinois (no bet) - conflicting tells as sharp indicators are with the Illini but a strong over/under squeeze exists (especially with the line moving upwards at a constant rate)
Charlotte (2 units) - Just a a note not only do the numbers like this but I personally like it as FAU is more of a mess, especially offensively. Meanw2hile Charlotte is an upper half CUSA team. 7 points is way too much and I actually like Charlotte +235 straight up. HOWEVER, what we analyze here is against the spread and that says sharp indicators agree with a Charlotte pick
New Mexico St (2.5 units) - Extremely strong sharp indicators outweigh the low ticket favorite.
low tickets, love them they hit at a high rate
thanxs hoo
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