SMU -27.5

SMU is loaded with talent, particularly transfer talent and particularly on defense. I can’t believe I am taking a line that has moved 6 points from open with no injuries and being played on the road with elevation, but I am. I liken SMU to FSU, but with a very different perspective and atmosphere around the program. SMU has moved to the ACC and did so by boosters/donors footing the bill. They are expected to dominate teams like Nevada now and that will be the mindset from the administration to the coaches to the players. If the defense plays as advertised, I believe scoring, even with a large SMU lead, will be tough to come by for Nevada. 

YTD: 0-0 (1 pending)

SMU -27.5 

@RealExpert

 I like the play. Was also looking at SMU first half -14, but it’s moved it -16.5 now and I think I’m with you. 

@RealExpert

@DueceDropper22

 I think if you watch each team one series to perform the eye test, mostly focused on SMU’s defense, you could probably get a live line very similar that for 1st half with a bit more insight. 

@RealExpert

 Good advice. I’ll give that a try. 

Ok let’s see how we start. I am going to live post so you can see how I try to hit both sides for a guaranteed win, preserve capital or go for a middle. 

Great pic by Nevada. Wow. 

Very sloppy start for SMU which is a great 1st quarter team. We are negative value on any plays right now by 3.5 points from our original line. 

What did I just watch.

SMU looks bad. Love to see an FSU/SMU pillow fight. 

SMU = PUBLIC BLOODBATH 

Terrible start for SMU. Still early but going to take a quick turnaround to see any value anytime soon. so important for this method to work to be on the right side early. 

FYI - staring at live lines during the game will ruin the live aspect of watching for you because of the TV delay you basically know what happens to a certain extent before you actually watch it. 

SMU can score really fast. 

@RealExpert

 Hahaha yeah I know. I’ve been a live better in the past as well. Prefer it sometimes. 

Live line at 16 negative 11.5 value. Should SMU score on this drive I see line moving to 22.5. 

Ok after SMU score live line shorter than I thought at 20 and bought up to 20.5. Negative 7 value. I think Vegas likes what they see so far from Nevada. One turnover can flip that pretty quick though. This will be an interesting drive. 

I’m thinking I’m gonna sprinkle just a dribble on Nevada ml. 

Another lose for you... move on game over!

After Nevada FG live is at 16 or negative 11.5 value. If SMU doesn’t score on this drive and Nevada gets ball back I will seriously consider betting more on SMU or “averaging down” my bet. Seeing value on that line as it’s well below opening line with a lot of time left. 

@Glccskippy22

 It’s never a loss until you can’t bet anymore on the game and it’s over. 

Let it go...move on take the loss with smu -27.5 

Live line is 13.5 negative 14 value. 

I see a good play on SMU here at -13.5. I am doubling my bet by taking SMU -13.5 here for the game. 

I just took SMU minus 13.5

Betting -27.5 against the team with the mobile quarterback is not a great college football strategy! College schemes and players are rarely sophisticated enough to consistently be able to scheme against runs and scrambles

Vegas . ..Nevada 

Winner